The 10 Cardinals with the most to prove during Spring Training

Paul Goldschmidt

After winning the National League Most Valuable Player Award in 2022, Paul Goldschmidt took a major step back offensively in 2023, much more than anyone really expected.

Getting into his mid-30s, it was fair to expect regression from Goldschmidt in 2023, but seeing his OPS drop from .981 to .810 in just one season was a steep decline. Goldschmidt was still a very good hitter last year, but far from the guy we have grown accustomed to watching.

Goldschmidt is in a contract year, and neither side is looking to talk about an extension currently. There are a lot of reasons for that, but both sides really do want to see how this year plays out before they commit to each other long-term. The Cardinals don't want to hand out a large number to a guy who may be in rapid decline, while Goldschmidt wants to be able to contend for a World Series.

I think both sides want a deal to work out in the end, but Goldschmidt will need to prove he's got more left in the tank this season for that to become a reality.

I'm sure Goldschmidt will have plenty of suitors this offseason if a deal with St. Louis cannot work out, but his performance on the field will surely dictate the number he receives. While the Cardinals would love a scenario where Goldschmidt finishes his career in St. Louis, guys like Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, or even Willson Contreras could shift to first base, so they don't have pressure to make that happen.

Goldschmidt has also stated that he pushed hard for the Cardinals' to bring in Matt Carpenter this offseason to help with leadership in the clubhouse, so there's a bit of added pressure on Goldschmidt to go out and perform now that St. Louis has brought in a guy to relieve some of that leadership pressure from his shoulders.

Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn had an excellent beginning to his Major League career with his six seasons in St. Louis, posting a 3.38 ERA in 977.2 innings for the club. He was a World Series champion in his rookie season in 2011 and was a critical part of their rotation for their deep playoff runs in the years following, and now returns to St. Louis as a veteran presence in the clubhouse.

Lynn is coming off the worst season of his career, posting a 5.73 ERA while giving up a league-high 44 home runs between his time with the White Sox and the Dodgers. The Cardinals believe they have found some things in Lynn's game they can adjust before the season that will help him regain his success from years prior, but he'll ultimately have to prove it on the mound.

The Cardinals are hoping that Lynn can be a guy they rely on to go "pole to pole", making over 30 starts for them and doing deep into ball games on a consistent basis. But they also really hope to see an uptick in production as well, as Lynn still has the stuff to be more than just an innings eater if he is firing on all cylinders.

Lynn has a club option for 2025, so his performance this season could lock him into another year with St. Louis, or could potentially be the last season of his career. Lynn is a competitor by nature and someone who wants to prove everyone wrong with how his 2024 season went. A motivated Lynn should produce better results in 2024, and that will go a long way toward helping the Cardinals' rotation rebound this year.

Alec Burleson

While 2023 was not the rookie campaign that Alec Burleson or the Cardinals wanted for him, the organization has remained pretty bullish on Burleson's potential as a hitter, but gave him some pretty direct challenges this winter regarding his defense.

At Winter Warm-Up, Burleson said the club was straightforward with him about their lack of trust in him defensively, and that he needed to put in work this offseason to change their opinion. Burleson lost weight over the winter with the goal of coming into camp more agile and prepared for the 162 game season.

At the plate, Burleson has some adjustments to make as well, but his .691 OPS doesn't tell the full story for him at the plate. Burleson had really good underlying metrics in 2023 and was extremely unlucky at the plate throughout the year.

Even with that being the case, Burleson will feel the pressure this spring to perform, as the opportunities for playing time are not going to be easy to come by.

In the outfield, the Cardinals have already committed to the trip of Nootbaar, Edman, and Walker as their starting group, and those three should be everyday players. After that, Dylan Carlson is the clear fourth outfielder, especially with his ability to play center field. While Burleson should still see time out there, opportunities will be limited barring injuries, and even someone like Brendan Donovan or Victor Scott II could end up eating into opportunities.

While the Cardinals value Burleson's left-handed bat off the bench, there's a chance that roster construction limitations could even force him off the roster, especially if they trust Matt Carpenter to provide value in spots for them off the bench. Someone like Thomas Saggese could be rostered over Burleson due to his infield versatility.

While first base and designated hitter are natural spots for Burleson, those spots may be even more limited than the outfield. Goldschmidt plays most days, and when he's off, Donovan may also get starts at first base as well. That designated hitter spot will often rotate between Goldschmidt, Arenado, Contreras, Gorman, Donovan, and even Walker, all of whom are higher than Burleson on the depth chart.

Oliver Marmol

Last year's club had high expectations, and although roster construction played a major role in their demise, manager Oliver Marmol enters the 2024 season with a lot to prove.

Marmol has been impressive this offseason when talking to the media about what went wrong and how things can be better in 2024, but he will have to get results on the field in order to prove he's the right man for the job. Marmol knows that, and he invites that level of accountability.

Spring Training is the first opportunity for Marmol to set the tone for 2024. Last spring, things got derailed by the World Baseball Classic, but even so, many noticed a lack of urgency from the coaching staff and players regarding the level of disruption that could cause them. They almost seemed to shrug off the negative impacts that could have on them, and it ended up coming back to bite them.

Beyond the attention to detail that Marmol and his staff need to show in camp, fans and media will be hanging on his words and the rhetoric of players to see what the mentality of the club is heading into April. Are they prepared for the early season gauntlet they have in store? Are they hungry and eager to prove their doubters wrong? The tone set in Spring Training can have major ramifications come the regular season.

Not to mention, at some point in the next few weeks, club icon Yadier Molina will be showing up to camp in an advisory role, and soon after the chatter will ramp up again regarding Molina's future role as a manager in Major League Baseball. A strong spring from Marmol and his staff is needed in a big way.

Steven Matz

It's safe to say that Steven Matz's first two years in St. Louis have not gone according to plan.

Halfway through his four-year deal with St. Louis, Matz has made just 27 starts, and has not always produced at a high-level for them when he's been on the mound.

After a terrible start to the 2023 season, Matz was placed in the bullpen for over a month to refine his repertoire. After finding success as a reliever, Matz regained his rotation spot and flourished, posting a 1.86 ERA in seven starts before hitting the injured list to end his season.

Health is number one priority for Matz this spring, with confidence being a close second. Once Matz began pitching with an edge again in 2023 and trusting his stuff, that's when he found great success. If Matz can remain healthy and be confident in himself this spring, he has the chance to be the Cardinals' second-best starter on their roster currently.

If Matz is unable to break camp healthy or struggles once again, one of the young starters like Zack Thompson, Matthew Libeartore, or Gordon Graceffo may leapfrog him in the rotation.

John Mozeliak

If John Mozeliak and the Cardinals' organization stick to the current plan, this is the second to last Spring Training with Mozeliak as the President of Baseball Operations, meaning an almost two decades-long run in charge of the club is coming to an end rather soon.

Mozeliak won't lose his job between now and the end of the 2025 season unless he decides to step away from it. But there certainly is pressure on Mozeliak to right the ship after one of the worst seasons in franchise history, and there's an arguement that his legacy in St. Louis can be changed dramatically based on how 2024 and 2025 go for the club.

Mozeliak has a World Series on his resume and another National League pennant as well, but since around 2015, the club's postseason success has tappered off signifcantly and they have not won a playoff series since 2019. While Mozeliak has made a lot of great moves during his tenure, recent blunders like trading away Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen in the same deal or parting ways with Randy Arozarena has hurt the club significantly in recent years.

The young talent that has recently arrived in St. Louis and coming up through the system gives fans hope, but once again, pitching is going to be the greatest question mark for the club in 2024. Mozeliak decided to go with Gray, Lynn, and Gibson to rebuild the rotation while bringing in a wide mix of high-upside arms to their bullpen, and only time will tell if the bets Mozeliak made will pay off.

Even with ownership not spending as much as fans would like, it's ultimately up to Mozeliak to put a winning product on the field regardless. Club's like the Tampa Bay Rays have been able to do so for a number of years, so money can't be the main excuse.

Mozeliak will also be judged by the job he does setting up his future successor, whether that is Chaim Bloom, Randy Flores, Michael Girsch, or someone else. 2024 is a big year for Mozeliak, and Spring Training is the start of that.

Tommy Edman

Offseason wrist surgery has set the Cardinals' center fielder back as Spring Training has gotten underway, and depending on how long it takes him to bounce back, Edman's role with the club could get interesting.

Edman and the Cardinals have to an agreement on a two-year extension that locks up his remaining arbitration years, but there is a lot of young talent up the middle for St. Louis that could replace Edman. Donovan and Gorman have already supplanted Edman at second base, while the Cardinals are hoping Masyn Winn claims the starting shortstop job for years to come. Edman still provides the Cardinals depth at both positions, in particular shortstop, but his main role is now as the club's center fielder.

The plan is for Edman to be the everyday guy out in center field this year, but if he's not able to begin the season on the active roster, Edman leaves the door open for former top prospect Dylan Carlson to regain an everyday role with the club. And it's impossible to ignore the rise of Victor Scott II, whose blazing speed and incredible defense now has him knocking on the door of St. Louis as well.

If Edman is not healthy or is slow out of the gates for St. Louis, there's a world where he is regulated to a super-utility role off the bench or utilized as a trade chip at the deadline. While it seems more likely that Edman could be moved next offseason, if the Cardinals need pitching at the deadline, he makes a lot of sense to move, much like Harrison Bader a few years ago.

Dylan Carlson

Speaking of Dylan Carlson, 2024 is a huge year for both the development of his career and his future with the Cardinals organization. With Edman not ready for game action as spring contests get underway, Carlson will have every opportunity to show the Cardinals that he's back to being the guy they were so high on for many years.

As things currently stand, the Cardinals view Carlson as their clear fourth outfielder, but he has what it takes to be much more than that. The problem for Carlson in recent years has been a lack of health, and in 2023, his performance took a dip as well.

Carlson is a quality defensive outfielder who has shown the ability to be really good at times as well. He's always been able to mash left-handed pitching, so that's a great tool in his belt as well. The problem remains his inability to be effective against right-handed pitching, as Carlson has posted a .672 OPS against right-handers as compared to his .848 OPS against southpaws.

If Carlson can prove he's made strides at the plate this spring, he may go from a guy the Cardinals have been willing to move in trades to a legit piece in their outfield. Even if the Cardinals still don't see Carlson as a long-term answer for them, he could play his way into a great opportunity elsewhere closer to July.

Few players are under as much pressure as Carlson is this spring, and we'll get an opportunity to see how he responds to that very soon.

Nolan Arenado

Last but certainly not least on this list is superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado.

After a major down year from Arenado, he's been described as "motivated" by teammate Lars Nootbaar, and in Nootbaar's words, "A motivated Nolan is a scary Nolan".

Arenado has been open as spring has gotten underway about his own leadership shortcomings in 2023. Although he thinks the clubhouse needed more veteran leadership (hence the Carpenter signing), he's also acknowledged that he needs to be better about being vocal with other players, even when he's going through his own rough stretch. He found it difficult to speak up when he himself was having a hard time on the field, which is understandable considering how high of expectations Arenado puts on himself.

Arenado was an All-Star in 2023 and excellent offensively in the first half, but was nothing like himself at the plate throughout the second half, with the Cardinals' team struggles and his back issues clearly impacting him.

The Cardinals' third baseman seems ready to not only put all of that behind him but rebound in a big way this year. Arenado is still the highest-paid player on the Cardinals roster, so getting him back to All-Star form will be critical to their success in 2024.

While their lineup has a variety of other options, Arenado is the leader of that unit, and when he's firing on all cylinders, the entire club seems to play it's best baseball.