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St. Louis Cardinals ranked a top 5 lineup in MLB for the 2023 season
The St. Louis Cardinals were among the best in baseball in almost every major offensive category in 2022, and despite the loss of Hall of Famers Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina, the club is still projected to be one of the best lineups in baseball, according to Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com
When ranking the top 10 lineups in baseball for the 2023 season, Castrovince had the Cardinals as the 5th best lineup in the game, having this to say about St. Louis:
Though the Cards will sure miss that surprisingly vintage performance they got from Albert Pujols in the second half of 2022, Contreras (132 wRC+ in '22) replacing Yadier Molina (51) is pretty much as big an offensive upgrade as you can possibly make with a single signing. Thanks to MVP-caliber seasons from Goldschmidt and Arenado and the emergence of the likes of Donovan and Nootbaar, the Cards ranked fifth in runs (772) and wRC+ (114) last year. They could further be boosted by top prospect Jordan Walker.
Of course, the Cardinals big move of the off-season was signing catcher Willson Contreras. As Castrovince points out here, this upgrade in production alone from the catcher spot in the lineup is a huge addition to the St. Louis lineup.
Many are quick to ask the question "But who replaces Albert Pujols' production in 2023"? Let's break that down for a moment, because there seems to be a lot of misunderstandings about this.
First, Contreras was brought in to be a big bat in the lineup and supplement some of that lost production, but his addition should be seen as a major offensive upgrade at one of the least productive spots in any order in baseball last year, rather than "Pujols' replacement". Contreras is going to make a spot in the order that was 50% below league average in 2022 into a bat that is 20%-30% above league average, whcih as Castrovince points out, is as big of a swing as you can get.
Second, the Cardinals have enough internal options to offset a lot of Pujols' lost production next season. Remember, Pujols was elite for the 2nd half of 2022, but before that hot stretch, he was below league average at the plate.
Albert Pujols wRC+ by half in 2022
— Joshua Jacobs (@joshjacoMLB) December 24, 2022
1st half - 93
2nd half - 206
wRC+ projections for #STLCards DH options in 2023
Yepez - 121
Burleson - 119
Walker - 112
Gorman - 109
They won’t replicate 2nd half Albert but they can provide season long stability to make up for it. (1/4)
Expecting Juan Yepez, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, or Nolan Gorman to be Albert Pujols in 2023 is not realistic. But to believe they will provide the Cardinals with consistent production at the DH spot all year long, rather than just one half, is something to be expected.
Pujols finished the 2022 season with a 151 wRC+, largely due to that 2nd half surge he was on. While I highly doubt any of the Cardinals current DH options go on a tear like Pujols did, I do believe between all of their options, they can replicate a large chunk of that production over 162 games. The Cardinals will platoon that positoin frequently, giving guys at bats that favor them in matchups, increasing their likelihood of producing at a high level.
I would also bet that at least one of Yepez, Walker, Gorman, or Burleson out perform their current projections, giving the Cardinals another great hitter for their lineup. Plus, getting at least above average production from that spot in the lineup for the entirety of the season, rather than just half the year, gives the Cardinals a stronger lineup for 162 games, rather than just the post All-Star break performances.
Internal improvements are projected in a big way
On top of the addition of Contreras and stabilized production at DH, current projections see the Cardinals having a deep lineup. As things currently stand, St. Louis is projected to have 12 different players producing above league average at the plate, and six of those players at 20% above average. The depth that the Cardinals have up and down the order and off the bench can be matched by few, if any, in baseball.
Sure, the Cardinals do not have the strongest middle of the order in baseball. Their MVP level duo of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado can matchup with any duo, but their 3rd and 4th best hitters are outclassed by teams like the Padres and Phillies. Yet, as a whole lineup, and when it comes to the necessary depth to sustain a full season, that is where the Cardinals have an edge on most clubs.
Players like Tyler O'Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Juan Yepez, Nolan Gorman, and Dylan Carlson all have the potential to take a big step forward and be elite bats in their lineup. Nootbaar showed for most of the second half that he is capable of being an All-Star level player. O'Neill finished top 10 in MVP voting in 2021. Walker projects to be a superstar and could be as soon as his rookie year. Gorman, Yepez, and Carlson have all shown the potential to be really, really productive hitters.
I get it, there are a lot of "ifs" here with the club. But here is the thing. Many of these "ifs" relate more so to the club being even better than the projections predict, rather than being just a "good" lineup. The Cardinals should easily be a top 10 lineup in baseball, even if steps foward are not taken by their young core. But the exciting thing about St. Louis is they have so many different players who can take a major step forward in 2023. If only a few of them do, that will be plenty enough for the club to slug with the very best in baseball.
Next. Should the Cardinals trade for Chris Sale?. dark