St. Louis Cardinals Opening Day Roster Prediction 2.0

It's time for our St. Louis Cardinals Opening Day Roster Predictions, 2.0

We are 11 games into the St. Louis Cardinals' Spring Training schedule thus far, and there are already some movers and shakers in competitions for Opening Day roster spots. While there is plenty of baseball left to be played, both in Jupiter as well as at the World Baseball Classic, it's time for us to take another look at the Opening Day roster positions.

Since the last predictions, which happened a few weeks before Spring Training games began, there have been multiple players who have broken out and made a strong case to be on the roster against the Toronto Blue Jays on March 30th, and some players who have faltered a bit and may be losing their spot on the roster.

What makes this year's roster one of the most interesting in all of baseball is just how many competitions and brewing internally. The outfield spots are mostly up for grabs right now, the DH spot has a variety of names in the mix, the bullpen is yet to be sorted out, and the competition for backup infielder and catcher may be hotter than we had anticipated going into camp.

With all of that being said, I am going to make my second set of predictions for what this roster could look like come Opening Day. I'll take a moment to break down who makes the roster from each position group, who narrowly misses the roster, and how I envision the lineups and rotation shaking out to begin the season. Here are my Opening Day Roster predictions, 2.0 edition.

Catchers

(2) - Willson Contreras and Tres Barrera

We are only one position group in and there is already a change from the 1.0 predictions. While Willson Contreras' role as the primary catcher is obviously intact, the backup catcher position has become even more of a competition than we originally had thought, and the early favorite to make the roster appears to be Tres Barrera.

Our own J.T. Buchheit broke down the competition recently, as incumbent Andrew Knizner appears to have a very real chance of missing the roster out of camp. There have been a number of questions raised about Knizner's long-term role with the club this offseason, but I think most would have assumed he got another shot on the roster to begin the year.

Barrera, 28, has come in and impressed both the coaching and pitching staffs enough to invoke praise from manager Oli Marmol, and with Knizner's struggles at the plate to begin the spring, this could be a sign of some changes at the position coming. Knizner will still compete with Barrera throughout the spring, but at this point, it feels like Barrera has the inside track.

Just missed: Andrew Knizner

Infielders

(6) - Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, and Paul DeJong

The only change from my original list here is the removal of Juan Yepez (more on that in the outfield section), but there is actually a lot more competition brewing than this list would indicate.

Coming into Spring Training, Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan were set for a major competition at the second base position. Donovan was the obvious favorite to start at second base, but if all things went according to plan, Donovan would be able to bounce around the diamond while Gorman got a lot of playing time at second base when he was not the designated hitter. So far this spring, both players have been tearing the cover off the baseball (Gorman posting a 1.096 OPS and Donovan with a .889 OPS), and more importantly, Gorman has shown major strides defensively at second base.

What does that mean for St. Louis? Well you'll see it throughout this predictions list and any time Oli Marmol talks about this roster, but the club is going to look to maximize the upside of this roster. For as good as Brendan Donovan is, and he should play pretty much every day, Gorman's bat must be in the lineup if his improvements are for real. You'll see in my lineups later, but as of now, Donovan should have second base locked down in their "best lineups", but Gorman will DH or play second almost every day, and Donovan can slide over to a number of other positions.

Looking at the backup infielder role, most have assumed that Paul DeJong would retain that role to start the year, and for now, he has. In just 9 at-bats thus far, DeJong already has 2 home runs and is posting a 1.084 OPS, so with that salary number for this year, it makes sense to give him the first crack at the role. But if DeJong slips up, there are two guys that will be ready to take his job.

Taylor Motter was an under-the-radar pickup this offseason and should continue to challenge DeJong for a spot on the roster with his ability to play all over the diamond and solid spring at the plate (.780 OPS in 18 at-bats). He will push DeJong throughout the spring and into the season, but the real competition has come in the form of Masyn Winn.

Outside of Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn may be the most impressive player of camp so far. The maturity and development in his game has blown everyone away, and he may force the Cardinals' hand sooner rather than later. Winn's elite defensive skills and potential to be a top base stealer in today's game are now being coupled with major improvements at the plate, posting a .400/.471/.600 slash line in camp thus far. My hesitation with Winn has to do with playing time. He needs to be an everyday player right now. but how will he do so in St. Louis with the presence of Donovan, Gorman, and Tommy Edman?

If Winn keeps blowing everyone's socks off in camp, or a major injury happens, this could change, but right now, I don't see the 20-year-old breaking camp with St. Louis until there's a clear path toward playing time. Serving as the backup shortstop will not help his development, so if he's not the starting shortstop on Opening Day, his best role is playing every day in Memphis. But with how he is playing so far this spring, he may have accelerated his timeline from sometime in 2024 to a major piece of this Cardinals team at some point this season.

Just missed: Masyn Winn, Taylor Motter

Outfielders

(5) - Jordan Walker, Tyler O'Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, and Alec Burleson

The moment we've all been waiting for. Before Spring Training, the narrative around Jordan Walker was "hold your horses, the guy is not going to make this Opening Day roster' from a lot of Cardinals' pundits. To be fair, with the crowded outfield group, it made sense that they'd hold off on Walker, so much so I even wrote some reasons why before camp got underway. But right now, it's almost impossible to see a way that Walker is not starting Opening Day for the Cardinals.

Walker is destroying the baseball this spring, posting a .429/.429/.857 slash line with 3 HR and 7 RBI. The 20-year-old is not only mashing at the plate but he's shown his ability on the base paths and shown major strides defensively in the outfield. Walker came into camp ready to force the Cardinals to put him on the Opening Day roster, and he is blowing even the most optimistic fan's expectations away.

With Walker and Lars Nootbaar locking down the corner outfield spots, the center field position comes down to Tyler O'Neill and Dylan Carlson. The early buzz centered on O'Neill's push for the job during camp, while Carlson has begun to show improvements against right-handed pitching at the plate as well. So far though, I don't think either player has seperated themselves to this point in camp, and so at this point, I would say the job goes to the higher-upside player in O'Neill.

Again, this is an Opening Day roster projection, not who will be the Cardinals starting center fielder all year long. I believe if the competition is close, the club will give the at-bats to O'Neill with the kind of ceiling he has offensively, paired with Gold Glove-level defense from left field that he is translating into great defense in center. If this is the case, I would assume that Carlson still retains a starting role against left-handed pitching early in the season, and will get opportunities to win the job back if O'Neill struggles.

I mentioned early that Yepez was scratched from the infielders list, and I actually would make a bold take that Yepez misses the Opening Day roster this year if Walker makes the Opening Day roster. Yepez, to this point in camp, has not been good defensively, and I struggle to see how he gets consistent playing time if that is the case with Walker's presence. There are too many other guys who need at-bats at DH, so I would see Alec Burleson making the roster to start the year, as he can slot in at DH or play either of the corner outfield positions or first base at a higher level than Yepez. Plus, he gives the Cardinals another left-handed option for the lineup. If Burleson struggles, Yepez would be right back in St. Louis.

Just missed: Juan Yepez and Moises Gomez

Rotation

(5) - Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, and Adam Wainwright

No surprises in the rotation, as the same five-man group that was projected throughout the offseason looks to the Cardinals' Opening Day group at this point. There are some encouraging signs from returning ace Jack Flaherty, and major concerns at the moment about club legend Adam Wainwright.

Flaherty had his first Spring Training start delayed a few times, but once he got to step onto the mound, he looked great. While his fastball velocity was slightly down, his command and stuff were great overall, and he looked a lot like the pitcher the club is hoping he'll be this season. Should this trend continue for the rest of Spring Training, the club should feel pretty good about Flaherty as their number-one starter during this season.

The area of concern has to be surrounding Adam Wainwright, whose velocity has been down significantly in camp and he's taken a heavy beating in the five innings he's pitched thus far. While the panic level may not be a ten yet, Wainwright will need to show major improvements at the World Baseball Classic to help myself and others lose some of the anxiety we are feeling with him at the moment. No one thought he would be a front of the rotatoin stater this year, but so far, I have questions about if he can even be a quality number five starter.

Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz have looked great so far in camp, but Jordan Montgomery has struggled in his three innings of work. The rotation is still the biggest area of concern on this team and will be under a microscope for the rest of Spring Training.

Just missed: Jake Woodford and Matthew Liberatore

Bullpen

(8) - Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Jordan Hicks, Zack Thompson, Drew VerHagen, Wilking Rodriguez, Andre Pallante, and Dakota Hudson

The Cardinals bullpen situation is about as fluid as it could get to this point in camp, but I feel pretty confident about the names on this list being on the Opening Day roster.

Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos are locks for this roster. Jordan Hicks should be but has struggled so far in camp so he is worth monitoring. The rest of this list is where things get interesting. Andre Pallante and Dakota Hudson feel like safe bets to me, as Hudson can act as the long reliever and spot starter, while Pallante had great numbers last year, can go multiple innings, and has good splits against left-handed hitters.

Drew VerHagen is having himself a really good spring so far, and with having a significant major league contract, he'll likely make the roster if he continues to impress. Should he struggle though, I don't think that contract will keep him on the roster. The Cardinals are very excited about their Rule 5 pick Wilking Rodriguez though, they must keep him on the roster or they will lose him from the organization, which makes him a likely member of the bullpen to begin the year.

The part of this list that I find odd but very possible is that only one left-handed reliever makes the roster in the form of Zack Thompson. Thompson was excellent in his rookie season out of the bullpen and has continued to impress so far this spring. None of the other Cardinals' left-handed options have stepped up much this spring, and with Pallante's ability to slow down left-handed hitters, I think the club will feel okay getting by without a second lefty in the bullpen until they determine which right-handed options they want to lean on.

Just missed: Genesis Cabrera, Packy Naughton, and Chris Stratton

Lineup vs. left-handed pitching

1. 2B Brendan Donovan 2. DH Tyler O'Neill 3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt 4. 3B Nolan Arenado 5. C Willson Contreras 6. LF Jordan Walker 7. RF Lars Nootbaar 8. CF Dylan Carlson 9. SS Tommy Edman

In the last few seasons, the Cardinals have had really good numbers against left-handed pitching. This year, that should only become even better with how strong this lineup is.

Leading off against left-handed pitching is still Donovan, but O'Neill receives a bump up to the two-hole with his great career numbers against lefties, and it allows him to see even better pitches with two MVP candidates and lefty mashers following him. Nootbaar swaps places with him in the lineup and gives St. Louis a left-handed power bat toward the bottom of the order along with some speed as well.

Carlson gets the start against lefties, and he still mashes them during his career and is a great defender that is underutilized on the bench. One specific change I made to this lineup was making O'Neill the DH, so if a right-handed pitcher comes in later in the game, they have the ability to swap in a Nolan Gorman or Alec Burleson, should O'Neill not be hitting well against right-handed pitching at the beginning of the season.

These are just what I think the typical lineup against each handedness would be, but the beauty of this club is the lineup flexibility they have. Oli Marmol can manage this lineup in a number of ways depending on matchups, player performance, and fatigue, and still maintain having the best lineup in baseball on the field at all times. It's mind-boggling.

Get ready Cardinals Nation, this Opening Day Roster is shaping up to be pretty special.