St. Louis Cardinals Opening Day Roster Prediction 1.0

Catcher

(2) - Willson Contreras and Andrew Knizner

No surprises here. Contreras will be replacing Yadier Molina behind the plate this year and look to bring an elite bat to the position that the Cardinals have not had since 10 or so years ago during Molina's MVP candidacy runs. While many have knocked Contreras for not being great behind the plate, his arm, which does grade out among the top in baseball, should be a great asset in a year when stolen base attempts are expected to rise significantly. With how much of an advantage Molina created in the run game for St. Louis, this is a big deal.

Andrew Knizner will likely serve as Contreras’ backup to start the season, but as I speculated recently, I could easily see Herrera replacing him midway through the year. With Contreras hopefully catching 120 games or so, allowing Herrera to get everyday playing time in Memphis, for now, is a good call for his development.

Infield

(7) - Paul Goldschmidt, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Juan Yepez, and Paul DeJong

Again, pretty chalk here when it comes to my picks. Yepez may belong better in the outfield category, but I would imagine he sees some time at first base, which is why I placed him here. Yepez will likely serve most of his time at DH though.

Another DH candidate for the club is Nolan Gorman, but as I talked about in a past article, the ideal world is that he sees the most games at second base next year and allows Brendan Donovan to play all over the diamond. Gorman's bat, if it plays to his potential, would make him one of the best-hitting second basemen in baseball, which is a huge asset to this club. Donovan will play every day, but I don't imagine that will be as a "primary" second baseman, rather he will see time at shortstop, third base, first base, DH, and maybe outfield as well.

Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Tommy Edman will likely lead the team in games played this season, as the former two are MVP candidates that they need in their lineup as often as possible, and Edman lack's a true backup unless Paul DeJong bounces back or the team is good giving a lot of time to Donovan there. The only player I see potential in dropping from the roster is DeJong, as the Cardinals have acquired multiple depth shortstops this off-season that could replace him if his last shot does not go well.

Outfield

(4) - Tyler O'Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, and Alec Burleson

It was a year ago this time that the Cardinals were thought to have one of the best young outfields in all of baseball, and by the end of 2023, I believe that will be the sentiment once again.

Lars Nootbaar is primed to become a top outfielder in today's game after a breakout season in 2022. I would not be surprised to see him in the conversation for an All-Star appearance this year, or at the very least, establish himself as a very productive player at the plate and in the field.

Tyler O'Neill is one of the biggest X-factors for St. Louis this year. Even if he just recaptures 75% of the player he was during the 2021 season, he takes the Cardinals' lineup to a whole other level. I do expect O'Neill's bat to bounce back in a big way, and serve as either protection for Goldschmidt and Arenado or be sandwiched between them in the 3-hole once again.

Dylan Carlson showed a ton of potential as an elite defensive outfielder last season, and the biggest question mark surrounding him is his ability to hit right-handed pitching. Since 2021, Carlson ranks in the top 40 hitters against left-handed pitching in wRC+ among players with 135 or more plate appearances, and if he can even become league average versus right-handers, he becomes one of the best young outfielders in today's game.

Noticeably missing from this list is Jordan Walker, but as I read the tea leaves, I think it is more likely that he begins the year in Triple-A and becomes an everyday player in St. Louis the moment an injury occurs or one of the four outfielders underperforms. Alec Burleson makes the roster in his place and has honestly been underrated heading into this season. He's not a great defender, but he's better than most give him credit for. All Burleson has done since being drafted is hit, and he has all of the tools to produce at a high level at the plate for St. Louis for years to come.

Rotation

(5) - Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright, and Steven Matz

Many had hopes that the Cardinals would add a front-line starter to this group before the season, but barring injury, this is the group St. Louis will rely on come Opening Day. Honestly, I don't think that is a bad thing.

Sure, by mid-season, the club will likely need to add another top-end starter, but this five-man group is perfect for a regular season run. There are no letdowns in this rotation, each guy should give them a chance to win almost every time they step on the mound. And with the Cardinals' offense, that should be plenty enough for the majority of the year.

Jack Flaherty is clearly the biggest wild card here. When he's been healthy, he's shown the ability to shut down lineups with the best in the game. Sure, injuries are a concern, but it's very possible he rebounds in a big way this year and is the ace this team needs.

Miles Mikolas and Jordan Montgomery have the ability to be quality number 2 or 3 starters in this rotation, alongside the back end of the rotation with Adam Wainwright and Steven Matz. This rotation's ceiling may not be as high as others, but its floor is very high.

Should an injury occur, guys like Dakota Hudson, Zack Thompson, Connor Thomas, Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford, and even Gordon Graceffo are excellent depth options for the club. Gone are the days of trying Jordan Hicks as an opener or relying on someone like Johan Oviedo to get them innings. The Cardinals' rotation is prepped for potential injuries.

Bullpen

(8) - Ryan Helsley, Giovanni Gallegos, Jordan Hicks, Zack Thompson, Andre Pallante, Genesis Cabrera, Chris Stratton, and Dakota Hudson

This is easily the hardest group to predict. Aforementioned names like Woodford, Liberatore, and Thomas could end up here, as well as guys like recently acquired Anthony Misiewicz, Packy Naughton, Drew VerHagen, Freddy Pacheco, Wilking Rodriguez, JoJo Romero, Jake Walsh, and Guillermo Zuniga could all battle their way into the bullpen on Opening Day.

What is great about this group is the fact that there is so much depth. Pacheco and Rodriguez are guys I am eager to see in St. Louis, but the club can be smart with their options and leave them in Memphis until they are needed on the big-league roster. I would not be surprised to see guys like Stratton or VerHagen be outperformed a bit by one of the younger arms, but still make the roster over them to avoid losing them.

I did a bit of a mix with my predictions as if a guy like VerHagen does struggle, a Zack Thompson or Genesis Cabrera could easily take his place on the roster. This is a strong group, but what makes it even stronger is that there will be names that are left off that you could argue got snubbed, meaning throughout the season, there should be quality reinforcements when either performance or injury requires it.

These are my 1.0 Opening Day Roster predictions. Anything you disagree with? Comment you predictions below!