St. Louis Cardinals' division dopplegangers

The St. Louis Cardinals have been a franchise that has been successful for decades in its division, let alone the entirety of Major League Baseball. A historic franchise such as the Birds on the Bat is tough to duplicate or find comparisons. My goal today is to find comparable teams in each of the other five divisions in the majors. The best way to do this is to create three categories and rank teams in other divisions based on these categories. While there may be some franchises that come to mind immediately, my hope is that there are a couple of surprises that initially didn't come to mind.

The three categories that I'll be using are:

1. Franchise success (World Series titles, playoff appearances, pennants, and division titles)
2. Franchise statistics (win totals, loss totals, Hall of Famers)
3. Organizational culture (attendance records, fan support, ownership similarities, management styles)

While there may not be a direct comparison between the Cardinals and other teams, my goal is to find teams that are most similar in those three categories to the Cardinals. All stats are courtesy of Baseball Reference. Let's find five franchises that are most similar to the St. Louis Cardinals.

NL East - Atlanta Braves

Let's at least start in the same league. The National League East currently has the Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and Washington Nationals. Some of these franchises are newer, while others are historic teams. This division was actually one of the easiest to analyze; the Braves jump to mind nowadays in similarities to the Cardinals (fiscally responsible, signing young talent to long-term contracts, large fan support), and that gut feeling proved to be accurate.

The Atlanta Braves were established as a franchise only eleven years before the Cardinals, they have reached the playoffs twenty-nine times to St. Louis's thirty-two times, and they have four World Series championships to eleven here in the Lou. Division Championships are close at twenty-two (ATL) and thirty-two (STL). The only other team in this division with a similar franchise history would be the Phillies, but the gap is quite large in World Series trophies, playoff appearances, and division titles. Atlanta takes the cake in our first category.

The second category was easy to choose from as well. With New York, Washington, and Miami being newer franchises compared to St. Louis and Atlanta, the total games and Hall of Famers don't measure up. St. Louis has a slightly better win percentage (.520 to .503) and has won nearly two hundred more games while losing six hundred fewer games. There is a total difference in four hundred games played with Atlanta having more. Furthermore, Atlanta can count fifty-four Hall of Famers to St. Louis's fifty. As a fun side note, their team ERAs are nearly identical at 3.67 and 3.68, favoring the Braves. Team batting average is only off .006, with St. Louis having the advantage there. Atlanta runs away with the second category.

Atlanta also won the third category with ease. Lately, New York and Philadelphia have been spending like crazy and have seen older players signed to their rosters. Meanwhile, the Nationals and Marlins have been trading players just before they get out of arbitration for younger, more cost-controlled talent.

The Braves and Cardinals, however, have been known for making big trades (see Sean Murphy and Matt Olsen and Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, respectively) while signing players out of their remaining arb years (Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Matt Olsen, Sean Murphy and Paul Dejong, Harrison Bader, and Giovanni Gallegos, respectively). Lastly, both teams consistently rank in the top 10 for attendance each year. While St. Louis outpaces the Braves by a couple of spots, no other NL East team consistently reaches the 30,000+ mark each year.

NL West - Los Angeles Dodgers or San Francisco Giants

The NL West is home to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and San Francisco Giants. Some of these teams are expansion teams, while others are teams that were moved west. The NL West has been a division of champions as of late.

In category one, we see a couple of very close teams to the Cardinals in the Dodgers and the Giants. I have included a chart below with more specific information, so you can see how close these three teams truly are.

All three teams are monuments in the National League, no doubt about that. A total of seventy-one World Series Appearances between these three franchises is a staggering total. However, in the category that matters the most, World Series Titles, the San Francisco Giants barely edge out the Dodgers as the closest team to the Cardinals. This awards them the prize for the first category.

In the second category, we see the same two teams at the top: the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are closer in win percentage (.531 to .536 compared to the Cardinals’ .520); similarly, the Dodgers and Cardinals are a mere 100 wins away from each other. Their loss totals are also nearly identical. The Hall of Famer count complicates things slightly more, as the Dodgers have fifty-two, the Giants have fifty-seven, and the Cardinals have fifty. The Dodgers are closer to the Cardinals in the franchise statistics category.

The final category is organizational information. Attendance counts are relatively unfair to use for this division, as Los Angeles is a massive city, thus skewing the numbers. As far as management and signings, it also gets slightly complicated. The markets in these two cities are significantly larger than that of the St. Louis area. A team out of the NL West that is most similar as far as market size goes would be the Padres; however, the Padres have shown a penchant for spending these last five years or so (Manny Machado, Zander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, etc.).

The Diamondbacks and Rockies have taken an approach similar to the Marlins and Nationals lately in which they dump off older players at the end of their arbitration for younger pieces. Despite the massive differences in market size, the Dodgers and Cardinals have a healthy mix of free agents, pre-arb players, arbitration players, pre-arb extension players, and other extension candidates. The third category is a toss-up.

AL Central - Cleveland Guardians, barely

We have reached the middle of the country. The American League East, despite its recent mediocrity, does have some teams with decently strong histories. The Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and Minnesota Twins all play in the AL Central. 

This division was actually one of the toughest. It wasn’t the toughest because a couple of teams were very close to the Cardinals, quite the opposite, actually; virtually none of the AL Central teams measure up to the success of the St. Louis Cardinals. For the first category, franchise success, only the Detroit Tigers are close in World Series appearances and titles (eleven and four, respectively). This alone makes the Tigers the winners of category one.

Category two was slightly more clear than category one for this particular division. The Cleveland Guardians have a franchise win percentage of .512, putting them the closest to the .520 that the Cardinals hold. Also, the Guardians edge out the Tigers, White Sox, and Twins for franchise victories. The Guardians have a total of thirty-five Hall of Famers, seven more than any other team in the division. The Guardians take category two.

Category three presented some problems; the White Sox have a similar payroll and roster construction (arbitration, pre-arb, extensions, and free agents) compared to the other teams. The Guardians are notorious for trading away players before they become too expensive, although they have shown an interest in signing players to extensions recently (Amed Rosario, for example). The Royals and Tigers have had poor organizational decisions in the recent past. The Twins present an interesting case. Their market size should allow them to spend money and garner a more talented team, but they haven’t done that in recent years.

All five teams have attendance counts at least 10,000 people fewer than the Cardinals, making this point moot. Kansas City and Cleveland’s markets are most comparable to St. Louis’s market. Taking all of these factors into account, the Cleveland Guardians narrowly take category three.

AL West - Oakland Athletics, surprisingly (to me, at least)

The Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, and Texas Rangers all play in the American League West. This division has seen a lot of turnover in the last five years. Some of the league’s most talented players play in the AL West currently. Historically, one team has seen great success in this division.

The final division to discuss would be the AL West. Ironically, the Oakland Athletics are dripping with history. Their twenty-five division titles, twenty-seven playoff appearances, nine World Series titles, and fourteen World Series appearances make them the closest team to the Cardinals, and a team almost identical to the Cardinals in terms of franchise success (contrary to recent experiences). Oakland is also the oldest franchise in this division. Congratulations, Oakland, you have finally won something recently.

The Houston Astros are the only franchise with a winning percentage over .500 (.501, barely). Had the Athletics not been so miserable these last two years, they would probably be significantly closer to the Cardinals. Oakland, however, does have more than 9,000 wins, putting them the closest to the Cardinals in this statistic. Also, Oakland has forty-one Hall of Famers; the Angels are the next closest at twelve Hall of Famers. Oakland takes category two handily.

Category three refers to organizational culture. Oakland has taken a "Moneyball" approach in the last 20 years: spend as little as possible while squeezing out as much talent as possible. Recently, the Oakland management has taken it upon themselves to trade away any playable player, put players who aren’t ready in uncomfortable roles, and take as many losses as possible with the hopes of moving the team. This hasn’t always been the case for the organization, however. The Coliseum has housed some of the most talented, memorable, and skilled teams in MLB history. The early 2000s and 1930s sported historic teams. This team’s history is lost in many people’s memories. Houston’s recent success has boosted its attendance statistics. Houston also had loads of success as a former NL Central team in the early 2000s. They also field a strong mix of homegrown players and free agents. The Astros do a fine job putting a strong team together. Houston and Oakland tie for category three.

Some of these teams were very surprising to me while others were relatively expected. Throughout baseball, patterns expose themselves. Teams see other successful teams and try their best to imitate that success. It doesn’t always work, however. While few teams can mirror the exact history of the Cardinals, some teams do come close.