No one is emerging as Cardinals' everyday catcher for 2024

In 2004, a promising young catcher named Yadier Molina appeared in 51 games for the St. Louis Cardinals. Molina quickly developed a reputation as an elite defensive catcher with a rocket for an arm. He became the team's primary catcher for the 2005 season, and held that role for the next 18 consecutive seasons. Molina's bat steadily improved over his first few seasons, and he led the Cardinals to World Series titles in 2006 and 2011. Yadier Molina retired as a legend with a compelling case for induction into MLB's Hall of Fame.

Cardinals officials and fans alike have agonized over finding the next Yadier Molina for much of the past decade. As Molina aged, though his bat became less potent, he remained an elite defensive catcher, revered for his strong clubhouse presence. This led the Cardinals to pass on a number of interesting replacements, each of whom had been, at one point in time, labeled "Yadi's heir."

2023 was the Cardinals' first season without the beloved "Yadi" since his 2004 debut. Many fans have cited his departure as a key component in the Cardinals' disastrous season. Following Molina's retirement after the 2022 season, the Cardinals embarked on a search for their next long-term catcher. Two options emerged in late 2022. It became clear that the Cardinals would either trade for the Athletics' Sean Murphy or sign free agent Willson Contreras. Ultimately, the Cardinals elected to sign Willson Contreras after balking at Oakland's high asking price.

While Contreras' expected metrics have been mostly in line with his career numbers, Murphy has blossomed into one of baseball's best catchers. Murphy has played excellent defense, while his OPS of .935 is near the top of the NL leaderboard, regardless of position. Simply put, he is the best catcher in the National League right now. After trading for Murphy, the Braves immediately signed him to a team-friendly extension, meaning he will likely remain in Atlanta through the 2029 season. These events have led many to lament that the Cardinals should have chosen Murphy over Contreras. 

Whether the Cardinals made a mistake or not, they cannot change the past. They only move forward with the catchers currently in their organization as they plan for 2024 and beyond. This article will examine those options and try to project their impact on the 2024 season.

Cardinals catching option No. 1: Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras agreed to a five-year, $87.5 million deal with the Cardinals this past offseason. The longtime Cub made headlines when he announced his excitement to join his former rivals. He revealed his appreciation for Yadier Molina, which was reciprocated by the Cardinal legend. Unfortunately, Contreras got off to a slow start. He slumped throughout the first two months of the season. Meanwhile, the pitching staff faltered across the board, leading some to speculate that Contreras could be to blame.

These reports along with internal analysis prompted the Cardinals to announce in early May that Contreras would be temporarily relieved of his duties as catcher. While the Cardinals never expected Contreras to occupy an everyday role the way Molina did, they certainly planned on him catching the majority of their games for at least the first three or four years of his contract. To abandon that plan just one month into his Cardinals career revealed serious internal doubt. Reports surfaced of a plan to move Contreras to the outfield.

After several weeks, Contreras reclaimed his role as the Cardinals' starting catcher and has performed well since then. Miles Mikolas, among others, has cited Contreras' brilliant game-calling while commending his clubhouse presence.

Unsurprisingly, Contreras' success has brought back uncertainty, with some suggesting that the Cardinals may trade him at the upcoming deadline. Bob Nightengale included Contreras' name recently in a story about players who have been made available ahead of the deadline.

Many have expressed skepticism that Contreras will be dealt due to his large contract. In the likely event that he does remain in St. Louis, Contreras no longer profiles as a true everyday catcher. He is much more likely to enter some sort of timeshare for the 2024 season with one of Andrew Knizner or Iván Herrera. When not catching, the Cardinals can still use Contreras at DH or in the outfield.

Cardinals catching option No. 3: Iván Herrera

Iván Herrera, though perhaps the most complete catcher on the Cardinals' 40-man roster, remains the clear third option. After struggling at the major league level in 2022, Herrera has broken out in a big way in 2023. Herrera has added power, sharpened his bat-to-ball skills, and improved his plate discipline. All of those changes have contributed to his .988 OPS in Memphis. During his brief time with the Cardinals, Herrera impressed, hitting .348 while drawing rave reviews for his work with the pitching staff.

Herrera's value is objectively higher now than it was at this point last season. He has demonstrated the potential for strong offensive production while also playing solid defense. This has left some eager to trade the young catcher with the hopes that he could be part of a package to acquire elite starting talent. Others believe that Herrera's strong performance has solidified his spot within the Cardinals' future catching plans. The Cardinals have been reluctant to move on from him in the past, but this deadline is likely to reveal their long-term plans for Herrera. Should Herrera remain on the roster through the deadline, he is likely to see significant time at the catching position in 2024.

It is worth mentioning that the Cardinals demoted Herrera on July 24. Cardinals brass noted that it was a "numbers game." This demotion, though disappointing, is not worth reading too much into, especially as the deadline is likely to free up some spots on the active roster.

Other catching options for the Cardinals

It remains possible that the Cardinals will turn to a catcher who is not currently on the 40-man roster. The Cardinals boast impressive organizational depth at the catching position. A veteran like Tres Barrera stands a chance of remaining with the club in a depth role for 2024. He made a brief cameo in May of 2023, but failed to impress. Barrera, even if called upon, is unlikely to receive much of an opportunity given his age and low ceiling.

Pedro Pages probably has the best chance to make his MLB debut at the catcher position for the 2024 Cardinals. He offers some offensive upside and has already reached AAA. This year, Pages has performed strongly at Springfield, hitting a .796 OPS. He has begun to tap into his power more regularly, significantly raising his stock. Pages almost certainly has a higher ceiling than Barrera and is thus much more likely to remain with the club over the offseason, though at 24 years old, he may not have much time left.

Perhaps Leonardo Bernal offers the player profile most similar to that of Molina. Bernal is already a plus defender with the potential for a strong bat. Bernal, at just 19, is currently playing in A ball with Palm Beach. Barring a shockingly aggressive promotion from the Cardinals, Bernal is unlikely to debut before 2025.

Another interesting option in the lower levels is Jimmy Crooks III. Crooks, at 21, is a bit older but is currently playing at A+ ball. He has more upside offensively than defensively but still has a chance to be an MLB regular.

And that largely details the Cardinals' options at the catcher position. Though there are many, it remains unlikely that one separates himself from the rest of them. If Contreras, Herrera, or Knizner is dealt at the upcoming deadline, it becomes possible that the Cardinals go off the board entirely and acquire another catcher. Though unlikely, this too is a possibility worth monitoring moving forward.

So where does this leave the Cardinals?

Cardinals fans should expect a timeshare in 2024. Entering 2023, the Cardinals hoped that Contreras would catch roughly 115 games. Nobody is likely to catch that many games in 2024. In fact, if nobody is dealt, it is unlikely that anyone even reaches 85 games caught. The most likely scenario is a timeshare between Contreras and Herrera, with Knizner mixing in occasionally.

However, even if all three catchers remain with the organization through the deadline, one or more of them could also be moved over the offseason. If this occurs, the remaining catcher(s) would obviously receive more opportunities.

The most likely to be traded at this point is Knizner. His departure would vacate some starts for Herrera, and could ultimately allow Herrera to emerge as the team's primary catcher. His all-around profile makes him the most likely of the three to someday emerge as the primary catcher and start 110 games at the catcher position. In this case, Contreras would shift to a DH and potentially OF role.