Should Cardinals' manager Oli Marmol be on the hot seat?

First, let's look at the problems that people have had with Marmol so far this year

Let's just pause for a second before we look at what people have been frustrated by with Marmol. Think back to Mike Shildt, Mike Mathaney, and even Tony La Russa. Cardinals fans have never been shy to voice their frustration with their managers, and honestly, I can't think of a fanbase that doesn't criticize their manager often.

Kevin Cash, who has continuously led the Tampa Bay Rays to winning seasons, has been on blast many times for his analytically driven approach. People have questioned Dave Roberts' ability to lead the Los Angeles Dodgers despite winning a World Series with the club and being a consistent contender. If it were up to Atlanta Braves fans, Brian Snitker probably would've been fired seasons before they won the World Series, or even early in that season when they had struggled out of the gates.

I'm by no means saying Marmol is in the same class as those guys or isn't without fault, but I also think it's good to remember that even the best managers in today's game get a lot of flack for their managing style. Even so, there are reasons mounting up for fans to be frustrated with the manager.

One of the easiest examples is the Tyler O'Neill drama from earlier this season. Honestly, it feels like that moment set the backdrop for everything that is going on. What started as "dirty laundry" that should have stayed in-house, became about as public as it possibly could have when Marmol and O'Neill went back and forth through the media. As this developed, I began to place more blame on O'Neill as well for how he fanned the flames a bit with his comments, but ultimately, Marmol should have kept things in-house.

The Cardinals' play on the field right now feels like perfect imagery for that situation. Now, every little mistake on the field is under a microscope from this fanbase, and it's hard not to think about the frustration Marmol showed toward O'Neill potentially rubbing off on the rest of the club.

Marmol is consistently criticized for his lineup construction and bullpen management as well. Some of these complaints feel unfair to put on the manager and should rather be critiques of the front office. When the Cardinals' failed to pull off a trade for Sean Murphy this offseason, it completely changed their plans, and they ended up holding onto too many young position players. Marmol now has the impossible task of keeping them all fresh, while also trying to play hot hands when they are there. Still, situations like player Taylor Motter consistently leave me scratching my head.

The same can be said of their bullpen. I think it's fair to say he hasn't thrown Ryan Helsley or Giovanny Gallegos enough this season (who rank 6th and 8th out of innings from their relievers so far), Marmol can't control that the rest of the bullpen, outside of Zack Thompson and Genesis Cabrera, is unreliable at best.

But as much as it may seem like I am defending Marmol, I'm not going to deny there are even more questionable decisions he has made to this point. Even outside of his Motter infatuation and puzzling bullpen usage, there have been multiple times this year when it seemed odd that Marmol hadn't pulled his starter from the game, and then boom, the game broke wide open for their opponents.

Or look back to Tuesday night's loss to the Giants. In the 8th inning, with a lefty on the mound, Marmol pinched hit Brendan Donovan with Paul DeJong and Lars Nootbaar with Tyler O'Neill. Now in this situation, both decisions worked out, but had they gone wrong, I think we all would have been in disbelieve about those decisions. DeJong has been hot in his return to St. Louis, but I still don't know if I trust him over Donovan in that spot. Sure Nootbaar is a lefty, but he doesn't have negative splits against southpaws and has a .911 OPS on the year. It's just weird managing all around.

I'm sure you can point to other things he has done in the comments, but I won't keep beating a dead horse. There are clearly things to point to with Marmol's managing style right now, and I can't blame anyone for feeling like he needs to go. But should he actually be on the hot steak because of those issues? Let's keep digging.

The argument for and against firing your manager this early in the season

To my knowledge, at this point in the season, I have not heard anyone in the Cardinals' clubhouse or front office question Marmol's leadership. Even after the O'Neill situation, it feels like things have at least mellowed out there. There was even a shot of the two laughing together earlier this week.

If it was clear Marmol had lost the clubhouse, then I think a change would be coming soon. But he hasn't, and so I think it will take other evidence to bring Marmol to the point of losing his job. For as much as people want to say the Cardinals are reluctant to make moves, they fired Mathaney mid-season and fired Schildt after making the playoffs.

Ultimately, he will be graded by the win and loss column, and Marmol knows that. So at what point does the Cardinals' record dictate a decision like that? Well, there are arguments for both sticking with your manager and firing your manager with other contenders who got off to rocky starts.

Last season, the Philadelphia Phillies began the year 22-29 and were 12 games back in the division and 5 1/2 games back in the NL Wild Card race. The Phillies decided to fire their manager Joe Girardi, and by the end of the season, they snuck into the playoffs as a Wild Card and made it to the World Series. For as much as people may try to say "Well, look at the talent they had", nobody thought the Phillies could rebound from that start at the moment. Like the Cardinals, they looked like a team with a ton of talent but just had too many things going against them.

Like Girardi, Toronto Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo was fired that summer with a 46-42 record, and the club had a .603 winning percentage the rest of the season under bench John Schneider. The Blue Jays seemed to finally be the team they were on paper under new leadership.

But after those two examples, you have to go back to 2009 to find another in-season managerial change that led to a playoff berth. It's just not typically the answer for clubs that are struggling, especially when they have the talent to do so much more.

There are countless examples of sticking with the guy the organization believes in though. In 2021, the Atlanta Braves spent 101 days of the season below .500 and took until game 107 to finally maintain a winning record. They went on to make the playoffs and win the World Series that year, even after losing Ronald Acuna Jr. to a season-ending injury. They weren't expected to do much in the postseason, but some timely trade deadline moves (which could be in store for St. Louis) made all the difference.

In 2019, the Washington Nationals were 19-31, yes, a whopping 12 games below .500, on May 24th and somehow turned their season around to win an epic World Series that year. Again, they weren't the favorites by any means, people pointed to many of their flaws, and yet, they made it work in the end.

I'll make a bold guess and say that people were calling for Brian Snitker and Dave Martinez's jobs throughout the season. And yet, they ended the year as World Series champions. I am NOT saying that I think the Cardinals are the next team to win it all after a really bad start but to write them off as even a Wild Card team already is just foolish. As of today, there are 137 games left in the season, and the Cardinals are only 5 games back of the Wild Card and 8 games back in the division. They've got their work cut out for them, but it even if it takes a few more weeks to get back fully on track, it won't take some crazy win streak like in 2021 to put them in the playoffs.

Ultimately, I don't think what is going on with the club can be pinned directly on Marmol. Yes, he has a part to play in it, but how big a role is definitely in question. But before a managerial change should really be considered, there are a few other parties that need to be looked at further.

So who is at fault for the Cardinals' terrible start?

Like most things in life, the Cardinals' start to their season isn't black and white in terms of who is at fault. But let me name some of the culprits who have at least played a role in this situation.

Ownership

Yes, at the end of the day, the Dewitts cut the checks. And many would argue it is ridiculous that the Cardinals' budget isn't significantly higher than it is today. Yes, Mozeliak still has some money he can spend on this current team, but I doubt it is north of $200 million. Right now, the Cardinals rank 16th in payroll at $159 million this year. Concerns with their bullpen and rotation would have surely been addressed this offseason if Mozeliak had more money to spend.

Front Office

I am one of the people who said I liked the Cardinals' strategy of letting the position players compete for roles this season. I still stand by that. Imagine if the Cardinals had dealt Nolan Gorman or Lars Nootbaar this offseason. Instead, they stuck with their guys and saw what they had once they couldn't swing a trade, and I respect that.

But it hasn't worked, and when things don't work, there does need to be changes. I'm glad they are now allowing Jordan Walker to play every day down in Memphis, but their overall management of the outfield so far has just been puzzling at best. Yes, Marmol has a role to play in that (more on that in a second), but it's clear the allocation of assets just has not been wise this season.

Oli Marmol and his staff

Marmol and his staff need to take blame as well. In-game decisions, the handling of lineups and playing time, publicly calling out players, and just an overall mess on the field right now are at least some reflection of the leadership in the clubhouse. It doesn't mean they are bad leaders or need to be fired, but there is accountability that they need to continue to own, and they need to find a way to get this turned around.

Outside of ownership, front office, and the coaching staff, the players need to own a lot of this as well.

So who is at fault for the Cardinals' terrible start? (Cont.)

The Cardinals pitching

I mean, let's call a spade a spade here. The Cardinals' pitching has just been bad this year and it's hard to overcome that.

I've talked about how the Cardinals' pitching staff has better underlying numbers than they are giving up and that they should get back to being a middle-of-the-pack staff at some point, but who cares right now? The club needs them to be better.

Cardinals' offense with runners in scoring position

What's even more frustrating is that the pitching has improved some lately, and when the Cardinals do get quality starts or good bullpen performances, the offense can't come through. It's baffling.

This team's strength is their hitting, so they cannot keep going quiet with the team needs them most. Again, almost every major offensive stat shows this club is so much better than they are right now, but the most important stat, runs, is not showing it.

Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado

I am not criticizing them as leaders, people, or even as excellent players. Goldschmidt and Arenado are MVP level players. The Cardinals are beyond lucky to have both of them. But both guys will be the first to say they need to be better.

Until last night, Goldschmidt had been struggling at the plate lately (by his standard) and just wasn't the bat they needed him to be in the order. Arenado now has a .662 OPS on the season and is a career .877 OPS guy. Both guys will turn it around, but it's obviously not helping the club right now that they haven't been performing to their ability most of the season. When both guys are on, they can help the Cardinals overcome a lot of adversity. St. Louis needs that from their superstars.

Conclusion

No, I don't think Oli Marmol should be on the hot seat right now. But honestly, I don't blame you if you think he does. This Cardinals team still had a lot of season ahead of them, but things are getting bleaker by the day. Let's hope this organization turns it around as soon as possible, whatever it takes.