Revisiting my 7 bold predictions for the Cardinals 2023 season

On March 26th, 2023, I made 7 bold predictions about the St. Louis Cardinals upcoming season. These were intentionally bold predictions, meant to push the envelope beyond what the typical expectations were and instead "go out on a limb" a bit to see what may happen.

Looking back on the list, some of these takes aged pretty well, while others did not, so I'd like to revisit these 7 predictions and see where I got things right, or where things went wrong for the Cardinals in that regard this year.

Prediction #1 - Dylan Carlson becomes the clear fourth outfielder

I started this prediction by acknowledging some would not think this was all that bold (and I promise I have some very bold ones after this), but if you take yourself back to the rhetoric of many fans and media last spring, many were advocating hard for Carlson to be an everyday player.

Instead, Jordan Walker made the Opening Day roster, Tyler O'Neill started the year as the club's center fielder, and Lars Nootbaar was in the other corner outfield spot. For a large chunk of the year, you could even argue that Alec Burleson was higher on the depth chart than Carlson.

Well, this prediction was about what Carlson would become, and if you listen to John Mozeliak this offseason, he has consistently referred to Carlson as the club's fourth outfielder. Carlson is the immediate backup at all three outfield positions and especially provides depth in center field with Tommy Edman being the starter at the moment.

Carlson has had a disappointing couple of seasons after a really promising rookie year, and there's a real chance he will find a way to carve out an even bigger role this season if he continues improving his game, or gets a chance elsewhere as a part of a trade package. But for now, my prediction about Carlson was spot on.

Prediction #1 - Nailed it

Prediction #2 - Cardinals trade for a front-line starter at the deadline

Obviously, this did not happen, and instead, the Cardinals actually traded away a front-line starter at the trade deadline in Jordan Montgomery.

What I will say about this prediction is it sounds like this is something the Cardinals were prepared to do if they were in contention in July. Mozeliak stated this offseason that they planned to reach the $200 million payroll marker for the first time in franchise history but instead sold at the deadline because they were out of it. This would have left plenty of room to add a significant piece or two to the club via trade during the season.

One thing that could have hindered this pursuit for the Cardinals was the lack of front-end pitching available at the deadline. Perhaps they would have traded for one of Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander, because again, they had the financial flexibility to take on significant salary, and I'm sure they would have been drawn to the short-term commitment those two had. But outside of those two and Montgomery, there really wasn't "front-line pitching" being moved via trade.

Dylan Cease was dangled by the White Sox for a little bit in July, so maybe he would have been in St. Louis somehow. Maybe the Seattle or Miami talks could have actually gained traction. All of those things are complete unknowns because of how the season went.

Regardless, the more pressing issue is the fact that the Cardinals allowed their pitching staff to fall apart so badly that they had to be sellers at the deadline. They've made progress toward not allowing that to happen again in 2024, but I think we can all agree we'd like to see them add more pitching to make this rotation look a lot better for the upcoming season.

Prediction #2 - Wrong, but it sounds like that was the plan for St. Louis.

Prediction #4 - Jordan Walker wins Rookie of the Year and receives MVP votes

This was a pretty aggressive prediction, but one I would do over again if you replayed the Cardinals' 2023 season 100 times to see how things would play out.

Walker's talent is there, and he really came into his own down the stretch at the plate while making major improvement defensively. In many ways, I think the 2023 season was one of the worst possible outcomes for Walker, and yet he still was a guy who showed he could be a force at the plate.

Upon his recall in St. Louis in June, Walker slashed .277/.346/.455 with a 120 wRC+ after making some adjustments to his swing to take advantage of the big-time power he has. The last two months of the season were even better, as those numbers rose to .286/.356/.470 with a 126 wRC+. For context, a 120 wRC+ would have been the 42nd-best in baseball and 3rd among rookies who qualified for the leaderboards, and the 126 wR+ would've put him as the 27th-best hitter in baseball.

I really do believe that if the team was performing better at the beginning of the year, Walker may have done better in his first month of action, or if the Cardinals had started him in Triple-A, he would have made a major splash with those numbers nationally. What Walker showed upon his return to St. Louis is that he is an emerging star, and it was his defensive struggles and the lack of team success that really overshadowed the production at the plate.

While Corbin Carroll was the runaway Rookie of the Year winner in the National League, guys like TJ Friedl and Nick Castellanos got MVP votes in 2023. If Walker's bat plays like it did from June on and his defensive improvements are real, I could easily see him receiving a few votes in 2024.

Prediction #4 - Wrong, but Walker's last four months trended in that direction

Prediction #5 - Nolan Arenado wins National League Most Valuable Player

Nolan Arenado had a really weird 2023 season but had his back been healthier, I have no doubt he would have been in the MVP conversation, but he would not have been able to surpass names like Ronald Acuna Jr., Mookie Betts, or Freddie Freeman.

Arenado was nothing like himself in the first half defensively, and although he fixed that in the second half, his bat then began to fall off. Just look at the difference in his offensive numbers from the first and second half.

If you just look at Arenado's total output from 2023, it looks like a guy who just became a league-average hitter in 2023, but the trends show he was a great hitter in the first half, even if it was not quite at an MVP level like he was in 2024, but fell off dramatically down the stretch as the Cardinals were well out of contention and his back continued to bother him.

I have concerns about Arenado's health going forward, but I still trust him to use this offseason to rehab and get back to full strength for the 2024 season. My expectation is that he's more like the hitter we saw in the first half with elite defense in 2024, but if the back can't get under control, then there may be some regression from that.

Something that I think will help Arenado a ton in 2024 is the continued progression of guys like Walker, Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, and Brendan Donovan. While the Cardinals still need Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Willson Contreras to lead the way, those bats are continuing to emerge as major contributors and take a huge weight off those three veterans. Gorman and Donovan can fill in at third base more often for Arenado if needed too, so he can get a bit more rest or DH days going forward.

Prediction #5 - Wrong, but expect Arenado to get back to receiving votes in 2024

Prediction #6 - The Cardinals will have six All-Stars this year

Well, the Cardinals had only one All-Star in 2023 in the aforementioned Nolan Arenado, but there's a real argument that two players were snubbed from last year's roster, and a few more couple have had strong arguments with better health.

Willson Contreras should have been in the All-Star game over Elias Diaz, but Diaz got the nod for being the Rockies' lone All-Star in 2023. Contreras had a cold spell early in the season at the plate and had the weird situation where he was removed from his catching duties for a week, but he rebounded well and made enough of a push to make the roster in my opinion.

Nolan Gorman had an ice-cold month of June that brought his numbers down significantly, but in almost every other month of the season, he was one of the best hitters in baseball.

March/April - 135 wRC+

May - 155 wRC+

June - 22 wRC+

July - 152 wRC+

August - 80 wRC+

Sept/Oct - 145 wRC+

The timing of Gorman's horrible month at the plate really hurt his All-Star chances, and had he even just been below-league average at the plate that month, he would have been the clear choice over Geraldo Perdomo, and honestly, I think he should have been selected anyways.

Paul Goldschmidt had a case to make the roster but I understand why he did not over Freedie Freemen, Matt Olsen, and Pete Alonso this past year. He was 10% better at the plate statistically than Alonso in the first half though, so I still count him as a snub.

So I really do think the Cardinals should have had four All-Stars in 2024, and if Ryan Helsley had been healthy, my guess is he would have made it too. Still, this bold prediction did not go well for me.

Prediction #6 - Way off...but it should have been closer

Prediction #7 - The Cardinals will win the World Series

Remember, this was my bold predictions list. In my '"realistic predictions" for the Cardinals season, I still thought their offense was good enough to make them a playoff team, but said they needed to settle their pitching questions to become a true contender.

Still, I need to own this one. I believed the offense would be elite and the rotation was solid enough to make it to the deadline, and neither of those things came true.

The offense did have the tools to be elite, but injuries and this frankly weird year derailed them from becoming that. They graded out as a top-7 offense all the way up until the time when Brendan Donovan was ruled out for the season, and so if they even just had a bit more from some of the guys they expected more from, the offense would have graded out as a top-5 unit in the game, and that is elite in my books.

I was clearly wrong about the rotation. Every single starter except for Montgomery performed below expectations. Jack Flaherty was about as inconsistent as you could possibly get, Miles Mikolas ate innings but fell off in a major way when it came to run prevention, Steven Matz was terrible to start the year, and after figuring things out and pitching like an elite starter in his return to the rotation, he got injured and missed the rest of the year. And the hardest part of all was watching Adam Wainwright have a historically bad year.

Reinforcements like Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford, and Dakota Hudson did not help matters, and so by the time the trade deadline came, there was no point in adding to the rotation to try and fix things.

I do feel a lot better about this team going into 2024 than most do, but barring some major moves in the next few months, I don't think I'll be this bold with their season result prediction this coming season.

Prediction #7 - A disaster, just like the Cardinals season