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Revisiting 6 freezing cold takes from the 2023 Cardinals season
As bad as 2023 was for the Cardinals, these 6 predictions might've been worse...
The St. Louis Cardinals had an abysmal 2023 season, and nobody could've seen it coming. After a stellar 2022 regular season in which they won the NL Central at 93-69, the Cardinals seemed poised for a repeat in 2023 after adding Willson Contreras to replace the retired Yadier Molina.
However, contrary to most predictions, the Cardinals finished last in the NL Central after their worst season in decades. With such a terrible and unpredictable season, fans inevitably had some freezing-cold takes. In honor of the frigid temperatures this weekend, here are a few from myself and fellow contributor Sandy McMillan that we reacted to on the Noot News Podcast.
Tyler O'Neill will finish top 10 in MVP voting in 2023
In 2021, Tyler O'Neill finished 8th in NL MVP voting after a monster breakout season. It looked like O'Neill would be a fixture in the Cardinals' lineup for years to come with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado moving forward in 2022. However, he took a step back after suffering injuries and only played 99 games. He was still a plus defender in left field, and his 99 OPS+ indicated he was a serviceable hitter, but not nearly as good as his 2021 performance.
With an offseason to recover, we believed O'Neill would rebound in 2023 and return to his 2021 form. With his elite power tool as well as Gold Glove defense, O'Neill could've been one of the top hitters in the National League if healthy. Unfortunately, his injury problems worsened, he only played 72 games and was front and center in early season clubhouse disputes with manager Oli Marmol. O'Neill's future with the Cardinals was clouded, so he was traded to the Boston Red Sox for two relief prospects.
Ultimately, this was a bold take that didn't come to fruition. O'Neill is a high-ceiling, high-floor outfielder who has the potential to finish top-10 in MVP voting but could also miss significant time due to durability concerns. In 2023 it was the latter, but I wouldn't be surprised if he has a resurgence with the Red Sox in 2024.
Jack Flaherty will finish top 5 in Cy Young voting in 2023
This one is a bit less defensible than the Tyler O'Neill prediction, but it is very similar. Flaherty showed flashes of greatness when he finished 4th in NL Cy Young voting in 2019 after a monster second half, but never really pitched that well ever again. 2020 was a lost season for most Cardinals players after a midseason COVID outbreak, and 2021 started strong until Flaherty suffered an oblique injury while batting in May.
Flaherty again suffered multiple setbacks in 2022 and only made 8 starts, but he appeared set for his first full healthy season since 2019 going into 2023, thus our optimism in his potential bounce back. While injuries weren't a concern, his performance took a major step back from 2019. He showed flashes of greatness but was extremely inconsistent. His start against the Los Angeles Angels, which he recalled in a recent interview, was particularly dreadful. Through 2.1 innings, he allowed 10 earned runs on 9 hits and 1 walk in a game Mike Trout did not even start.
After being traded to the Baltimore Orioles at the Trade Deadline, Jack Flaherty's minimal hopes of receiving any Cy Young consideration were completely washed away. The Cardinals managed a solid return from Baltimore, but Flaherty's 6.75 ERA was so abysmal that he didn't even finish top 5 in the Orioles rotation much less top 5 in Cy Young voting.
At only 28 years old, however, Flaherty still has a chance to bounce back after signing a 1-year contract with the Detroit Tigers. Hopefully, he will perform well after a rocky run in St. Louis and earn himself a payday next offseason.
The Cardinals will have 7 All-Stars in 2023
Now for one of the more infamous Noot News predictions. The Cardinals only had one All-Star in third baseman Nolan Arenado in 2023, one which all 30 teams are required to have. While Arenado did earn his All-Star nod as a starter, the rest of the Cardinals' talent was not present at the All-Star Game in Seattle. The rationale behind this prediction is quite defensible, however extremely optimistic. In 2022 the Cardinals had five All-Stars: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Ryan Helsley, Miles Mikolas, and Albert Pujols.
Pujols, of course, retired and was the honorary commissioner's pick as a 2022 All-Star, but the other four could've reasonably repeated as All-Stars in 2023. Goldschmidt was the reigning MVP, Arenado was an All-Star again, Helsley put up one of the best reliever seasons in Cardinals history in 2022, and Mikolas' status as a 2-time All-Star seemed to indicate 2022 was no fluke. Moreover, the Cardinals added 2022 All-Star catcher Willson Contreras in the offseason. Adding two more of either breakout Jordan Walker, the always valuable Tommy Edman, an emerging Nolan Gorman, or farewell tour Adam Wainwright wasn't out of the question.
However, Goldschmidt was snubbed due to the Mets needing a representative and losing the spot to Pete Alonso, Helsley was injured most of the year, Mikolas suffered serious regression, and Contreras was unjustly relieved of catching duties in May. None of the breakout candidates really broke out except Nolan Gorman, who entered an ice-cold stretch as All-Star voting took place, Edman was shifted to center field, and Wainwright was never the same after suffering an injury in the WBC.
The Cardinals certainly had the depth to have 7 All-Stars in 2023, but as unfortunately as the season went, there was just no way it was going to happen. With the team largely unchanged, could it happen in 2024? Possibly, but a lot would have to go right. Goldschmidt, Arenado, Helsley, Walker, Gorman, Nootbaar, and Gray all have All-Star potential in 2024, but all of them performing at an All-Star level in the first half will be a tough ask.
The Cubs will finish 20+ games behind the Cardinals in 2023
In 2022, the Chicago Cubs finished 19 games behind the NL Central-winning St. Louis Cardinals. So, almost 20 games back. Moreover, the Cardinals' roster was largely unchanged. After the retirement of Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols, Willson Contreras was brought in to replace Molina as catcher and Pujols as an everyday power bat in the lineup. With Jordan Walker on the rise, and Nootbaar and Gorman set to improve, it looked like the Cardinals improved in the offseason.
The Cubs added Eric Hosmer, Trey Mancini, and Cody Bellinger, all restoration projects, and replaced Contreras with an aging Tucker Barnhart. Their main move was Dansby Swanson, a glove-first shortstop who would certainly make an impact but probably only fill the hole Contreras left in their lineup and not much more.
Without an improbable resurgence of Bellinger, the Cubs looked to be largely the same team, and so did the Cardinals. It wasn't completely unreasonable to assume the Cardinals would gain one win over Chicago for a 20-game lead. However, Cody Bellinger did return to his MVP-level form, Justin Steele emerged as a Cy Young candidate, and the Cardinals completely fell apart.
Any Cubs fans reading this are probably familiar with this take, as it was spread around by a few influencers in Cubs media, but ultimately Chicago fell short of a playoff spot despite their spending. It was extremely difficult to predict the Cardinals' downfall and the Cubs' resurgence at the same time in 2023, so take your wins now. The Cardinals will be back in 2024.
Freddy Pacheco will be the Cardinals' best rookie in the first half of 2023
This isn't really a freezing-cold take, but more of an odd one. In essence, we predicted that Jordan Walker wouldn't be called up immediately, and another rookie would step up to start 2023 instead. Once Walker was called up, we expected him to be the most impactful rookie, but to start the season it would be a more under-the-radar name. In 2022, Andre Pallante was that under-the-radar reliever who had a fantastic Spring Training and never stopped producing.
In 2023, we expected Freddy Pacheco to fill that role. However, due to injuries and setbacks at Spring Training, Pacheco never once took the mound for St. Louis despite being on the 40-man roster. As a result of these injuries, the once-promising arm of Pacheco was designated for assignment. The Detroit Tigers claimed him off waivers, and Pacheco would not even have a chance to debut in 2023.
Many believed letting Pacheco go rather than letting him recover from his injuries was a mistake by the Cardinals at the time. However, the Tigers would DFA Pacheco after he underwent Tommy John Surgery, only for him to clear waivers and re-sign with the club on a minor league contract. If Pacheco had stayed healthy and on the Cardinals' roster, he might've been an impactful bullpen arm, but for now, he'll remain an intriguing what-if.
Jordan Walker was called up for Opening Day and was sort of the best rookie in the first half of 2023 by default. There's an argument to be made between him and Alec Burleson, but Walker's offensive numbers were much better. Both suffered from subpar defense, Walker's being particularly bad, but in a season as abysmal as 2023 was for the Cardinals, a "best rookie" probably wouldn't have the most stellar season anyway.
Adam Wainwright will throw a no-hitter for his 200th career win
Lastly, we'll take a look at the more sentimental side. 2022 was such a magical year for the St. Louis Cardinals culminating in Albert Pujols' improbable chase to 700 home runs, and Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright reaching the all-time record for starts and wins by a battery, we figured 2023 had a similar outlook with Wainwright's farewell tour.
Amongst pitching accolades, winning Cy Young, throwing a no-hitter, and joining the 200-win club were all that was left to accomplish for Wainwright. Cy Young seemed extremely unlikely for the 41-year-old starter and 200 wins seemed like a given, so the no-hitter would've been the perfect special moment to cap off Waino's legendary career.
Despite finishing the 2022 season in rough fashion, Wainwright appeared confident for a bounce-back 2023 after finding a problem with his stride, and he pitched quite well for the United States in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Unfortunately, Father Time had other plans, as Waino would suffer a shoulder injury in the WBC sidelining him for the start of the season and sending his farewell tour into a downward spiral.
For the longest time, it looked like Wainwright wouldn't even reach 200 wins much less toss a no-hitter. After tearing his labrum in win #199, Waino had one chance to reach 200 wins and he did not disappoint. When it looked like the baseball gods were seeking retribution for the magic of 2022, Wainwright channeled his strength one last time to pitch a 1-0 gem against the Brewers. It surely wasn't a no-hitter, but it was enough to secure win #200. And it was surely just as special.
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