Redbirds report card: Grading the Cardinals' moves over the offseason

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After a miserable season that mired the Cardinals in last place in the division and left the players and front office of the St. Louis Cardinals searching for answers, fans knew that the 2023-2024 offseason would be critical in determining the direction of the franchise for years to come.

The Cardinals brass knew it too. Instead of sitting on their laurels, President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak and General Manager Michael Girsch got to work immediately, addressing the team's desperate need of pitching by signing three starting pitchers at the winter meetings.

As the offseason progressed, the Cardinals made it clear that they were looking for clubhouse leadership and stressed the importance of a winning culture among the team for 2024. To illustrate this point, the team signed several former Cardinals as coaches and another as a player. The Cardinals also beefed up their front office with the hiring of an analytics guru to provide a fresh perspective on the team. On a lesser scale, the Cardinals dipped into the Rule 5 draft, grabbing a bullpen reinforcement and a few minor league depth pieces.

With the offseason winding down and Spring Training for the Cardinals set to commence on Feb. 24, the team looks revamped on the field, in the dugout and in the front office. How each move shakes out is anyone's guess, but the Cardinals are banking on these acquisitions to turn the team around 180 degrees. This is how I would grade each major offseason move that the Cardinals made.

Cardinals sign Lance Lynn

The Cardinals' first major move of the offseason involved bringing back a familiar face. Lance Lynn was drafted and developed by the Cardinals and debuted with them in 2011, eventually emerging as a rotation stalwart through 2017 before signing with the Minnesota Twins. Lynn soon blossomed with the Texas Rangers, finishing fifth in American League Cy Young Award voting in 2019 and making the All-Star team with the Chicago White Sox in 2021.

Lynn, known to possess a "bulldog" demeanor, was the type of player the Cardinals wanted to bring leadership and a voice to the clubhouse. The Cardinals signed him to a one-year, $10 million deal with a club option for 2025, and while he could positively contribute to team culture, his ability to capably fill a spot in the rotation is more of a question.

Lynn has long been one of the most fastball-reliant pitchers in baseball throughout his career, but his velocity hit a career low in 2023, with disastrous results. His average fastball was only 92.2 mph, and it led to an unsightly 5.73 ERA and an eye-popping 44 home runs allowed, the most in the major leagues.

Lynn improved to a roughly league-average pitcher upon a trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers near the deadline in 2023, and the Cardinals are hoping that he can imitate those results in their pitching staff. It's not a flashy acquisition, and the bust risk is high for the pitcher who will be 37 in May, but the contract is friendly for the Cardinals. At the very least, Lynn has shown that he can go deep into games, which the Cardinals are stressing in 2024.

Grade: C-

Cardinals hire Yadier Molina and Daniel Descalso

The front office identified leadership as a key to turning the Cardinals around in 2024, and to address that, the team hired legendary catcher Yadier Molina and former infielder Daniel Descalso. Molina will be a special assistant to John Mozeliak, while Descalso will replace Joe McEwing as the bench coach. McEwing will now also work in the front office.

Molina's main role with the Cardinals will be to serve as a resource for Oliver Marmol, according to Derrick Goold in a St. Louis Post-Dispatch article. Molina's presence can only be a good thing for the Cardinals, who appeared up a creek without a paddle during the Willson Contreras saga in 2023. Molina should provide valuable expertise to Contreras, but perhaps more importantly, he should be a resource for Ivan Herrera, the 23-year-old who is likely to back up Contreras behind the plate.

Molina will also spend time helping coaches and players in the minor leagues. Although catching will be Molina's primary focus, Mozeliak said he also expects Molina to impart his wisdom to the pitchers and coaches in the farm system.

Descalso, the team's other coaching hire, was a member of the 2011 World Series champion Cardinals team, and he should bring the winning mindset the Cardinals are coveting. Molina and Descalso should be immensely beneficial to the team on the diamond and off of it.

Grade: A+

Cardinals sign Kyle Gibson

The Cardinals' signing of Kyle Gibson shows that they have joined the sweeper revolution, as the former Baltimore Oriole drastically upped his usage of the trendy pitch in 2023, throwing it 18.5% of the time, compared with only 3.3% in 2022.

Gibson's sweeper led him to be less effective against left-handed hitters in 2023, against whom he allowed a .292 batting average and a .349 weighted on-base average. However, in contrast to Lance Lynn, Gibson has little risk to his profile given the low reliance on his below-average fastball, and he should be able to slot in the middle or toward the back of the Cardinals rotation with ease.

While other teams are deemphasizing innings for starting pitchers, the Cardinals are going the other way, looking for pitchers who can lessen the burden on their bullpen. Much like Lynn, Gibson is a durable pitcher who can eat innings. Since debuting in 2014, Gibson has started 294 games, which is more than any other pitcher in baseball over that period.

At 36, Gibson is unlikely to find a new level to his game, but continued use of his sweeper should help him neutralize right-handed batters. If he can find a pitch that gives him a chance against lefties as well, Gibson could be a stronger addition to the rotation than many fans expect.

Grade: B-

Cardinals sign Sonny Gray

The Cardinals' biggest move in the offseason was signing Sonny Gray, the runner-up in American League Cy Young Award voting in 2023, to a three-year, $75 million contract. With the Minnesota Twins, Gray had a sterling 2.79 ERA and led the major leagues with a 2.83 FIP. Debate rages on about whether Gray qualifies as an ace, but this writer falls on the affirmative side of that.

Gray is another pitcher who utilizes the sweeper, and it's a good one. In 2023, he threw it 576 times and recorded an opposing batting average of .097. He actually added velocity to his fastball last season, a rare feat for a pitcher in his 30s, but the bigger story is the adjustment he made to his repertoire. In addition to leaning on his sweeper more heavily, Gray attacked left-handers with his curveball and changeup more often and increased the use of his cutter and sinker against right-handers.

There is a bit of concern in Gray's profile given that opponents' contact rate and hard-hit rate were similar to 2022, where he still had a strong 3.08 ERA, which likely means that some good fortune smiled upon Gray last season. One should also account for potential age-related decline as he enters his age-34 season.

These are small worries, and the bottom line is that the Cardinals were able to grab one of the best pitchers on the market for the 2024 season. Gray should be able to function as the ace the Cardinals have been missing since Jack Flaherty in the second half of 2019.

Grade: A

Cardinals trade Tyler O'Neill for Nick Robertson and Victor Santos

It was an open secret that the Cardinals were looking every which way to deal Tyler O'Neill after a 2023 season that saw him be at odds with Oliver Marmol and once again struggle to stay healthy. After a 2021 season where it appeared that O'Neill was on his way to becoming a superstar, his career has come crashing down, as he has hit only .229 with a .707 OPS since 2022.

The Cardinals had a logjam in the outfield with Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman all vying for playing time, along with likely fourth outfielder Dylan Carlson. It was logical to cut bait with O'Neill, but the Cardinals had difficulty finding a suitor. Finally, the Boston Red Sox took O'Neill off the Cardinals' hands on Dec. 8, sending pitchers Nick Robertson and Victor Santos to the Cardinals in exchange.

O'Neill is a toolshed of a player, but he might have never been fully healthy since his 2021 explosion. His sprint speed dropped from the 97th percentile in 2022 to the 80th percentile last season, and he has battled shoulder, hamstring and back injuries throughout the past couple of seasons. The Cardinals have understandably decided that it was not worth trying to find the O'Neill of old and flipped him for a couple of lottery tickets.

Robertson and Santos don't seem to have too much upside, but depth is always important. While trading O'Neill after 2021 would have been ideal, even the best teams don't have psychics in their front office. With O'Neill's value having taken a drastic nosedive over the past two years and the team no longer having room for him on the roster, the Cardinals took what they could get. More important is the fact they cleared space in the outfield and removed a potential source of clubhouse issues. It's a classic case of addition by subtraction.

Grade: A-

Cardinals trade Richie Palacios for Andrew Kittredge

Yes, they did it. The St. Louis Cardinals went back to team that had seemingly fleeced them in the Randy Arozarena deal, this time shipping outfielder Richie Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays for veteran right-handed relief pitcher Andrew Kittredge.

Palacios was an unexpected breakout performer for the Cardinals amid a season of disappointments after the team purchased his contract from the Cleveland Guardians in June. He hit .258 with an .823 OPS, but with the Cardinals' outfield cluster, the front office decided to use him as a piece to net some bullpen help.

Kittredge was an All-Star in 2021, owning a 1.88 ERA and 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings and an outstanding opposing chase rate of 40.7%. The ever-frugal Rays dealt him before his last year of arbitration, and the Cardinals will hope that he can find the strikeout stuff he showed in his All-Star season before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery in 2022 and returning in August of 2023. In those two years, Kittredge's strikeout rate dropped to 6.8 and his ground ball rate declined from 53.5% to 42.7%.

There is a chance that the cutting-edge Rays can utilize Palacios' pull tendencies from last season — he hit 44% of his fly balls to his pull side — to raise his game another level. Cardinals fans might be nervous about Palacios finding sustained success in Tampa Bay, but it was a necessary move to shore up the bullpen with an established high-leverage reliever, even if the pitcher who will be 34 in mid-March is on the downside of his career.

Grade: B

Cardinals hire Chaim Bloom

The Cardinals have long operated as an insular organization, promoting staff from within and not venturing outside the comfort of what works. But after a season gone horribly awry, the front office realized that it needed a new perspective. Enter Chaim Bloom, one of the architects behind the Tampa Bay Rays' successful rebuild and the chief baseball officer for the Boston Red Sox until his firing at the end of the 2023 season.

Bloom, in his role as a consultant, should give the Cardinals new insight on what the state of the franchise looks like and how it stacks up to other teams. He will also assist with the team's pitching development, a category in which other franchises have lapped the Cardinals over the past several seasons.

Some of Bloom's moves with the Red Sox did not turn out well, and I wrote an article in November about how the Cardinals would need to be cautious if they were to hire him to handle responsibilities beyond pitching development, such as tinkering with the offense or providing advice for major transactions.

Bloom is not at a point where he is ready to vacate his family's home in the Boston area, so most of his meetings with Mozeliak and company will likely be virtual. If Bloom decides to take a long-term job with the Cardinals after this season, he might become more involved with the team's inner workings, which could be a cause for concern. But if most of Bloom's duties revolve around pitching and providing a new voice, this hire looks to be a good one for St. Louis.

Grade: B+

Cardinals sign Matt Carpenter

The Cardinals continued to emphasize leadership in the dugout by signing longtime Cardinal Matt Carpenter to a league-minimum salary of $740,000 for one year. The team hopes Carpenter will provide another jolt to the clubhouse culture, as John Mozeliak said Carpenter is "synonymous with winning."

The Cardinals will be in trouble if they have to play Carpenter too much. The former star his just .176 with the San Diego Padres in 2023, and it's unclear where his at-bats will come from. Carpenter, 38, is no longer capable of playing in the infield regularly, and the designated hitter role should primarily be filled by Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson, with Willson Contreras also spending time at the position when not behind the plate.

An additional concern is that Carpenter's presence could block young talent from making a splash in the major leagues. The Cardinals' farm system, while not up to par with those of the other teams in the upstart National League Central division, still has players with promise who could benefit from major league experience but are more likely to spend potentially unnecessary time in the minor leagues given the lack of room on the big league roster.

It's worth wondering whether the addition of Carpenter is somewhat redundant with fellow 2011 champions Yadier Molina and Daniel Descalso also on board in coaching roles. Carpenter could be another valuable resource to the players, but his production on the field is unlikely to benefit the team. On the bright side, if Carpenter plays too poorly for the Cardinals to stomach, the team can let him go and easily digest his small contract.

Grade: D

Cardinals sign Keynan Middleton

The Cardinals added the final piece of their bullpen jigsaw puzzle when they signed former Chicago White Sox pitcher Keynan Middleton to a one-year, $6 million contract, displaying some confidence in the 30-year-old right-hander and making him the highest-paid member of the bullpen. To clear roster space, the Cardinals designated pitcher Guillermo Zuñiga for assignment.

Middleton was an unremarkable pitcher in three seasons prior to 2023, but he drastically increased the use of his changeup with the White Sox, to overwhelmingly positive results. After throwing his changeup 17% of the time in 2022, Middleton upped it to 42.9% last year and cut his ERA from 5.29 to 3.38. The pitch plays well off of his fastball, and the changeup elicited a 37.7% whiff rate in 2023. Middleton also had an elite ground ball rate of 56.5%.

Middleton made news last season after criticizing the White Sox for lacking rules and guidelines and not punishing players for missing meetings or practices. Middleton's teammate at the time, Lance Lynn, agreed with his statements. It's likely that Lynn recommended Middleton to the Cardinals as a player who will hold teammates accountable for their actions.

The Cardinals are working on finding more pitchers with strikeout stuff, and Middleton had a career-high 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings last season. If the changes that Middleton made to his arsenal in 2023 continue to be effective, the bullpen could be a strength of the team.