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Rating how concerned we should be about slow starts from different Cardinals' bats

Which of the Cardinals cold bats should we be concerned about?

By Josh Jacobs |
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Miami Marlins v St. Louis Cardinals / Joe Puetz/GettyImages
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The St. Louis Cardinals' offense continues to underwhelm this year, and while I'm of the belief that the lineup will hit its stride sooner rather than later, not every hitter's slow start should be treated equally.

Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, Ivan Herrera, and Willson Contreras have all swung hot bats so far this year, so it's not like everyone has gone cold. But there are multiple big bats in their lineup that haven't found their groove yet, as well as some of their young bats.

I'm going to go through the five bats that have gone cold to start the year and rate my concern level on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being no concern and 10 being I'm freaking out.

Victor Scott II

I'm going to keep saying this, I am a huge fan of Victor Scott II and believe he has a bright future in this league. But it's hard to not look at his .091 batting average through 5 at-bats and wonder if it's time for him to head to Memphis to work on his swing.

Obviously, his defense and base running is super valuable, but a lot of that base running value is muted by only getting on base at a .148 clip so far, and I'm not sure his defense can do enough to make up for his slow start at the plate.

I understand the argument that Scott's offense is not needed for this club to be successful, but I think that would be fair to say if he was hitting closer to .200 at the plate, rather than sub-.100. I'm worried about what this may do to his long-term development, and the Cardinals' could double the offensive production they are getting from Scott if they replace him with a .600 OPS guy or higher.

They don't need to make an immediate move here, but if Scott is still batting below .100 by the time they return to St. Louis for their next homestand, I don't see why they wouldn't rip the bandaid off and roll with Michael Siani and Lars Nootbaar in center field until Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlon return.

Concern level: 9

Nolan Arenado

People forget that the Cardinals' superstar third baseman was an All-Star in 2023, being voted onto the team after slugging at an elite level through the All-Star Break. Throughout the second half though, Arenado fell off at the plate, and a lot of people attributed that to his bad back.

Well, his 2024 season hasn't started off strong by his standards, as Arenado has looked uncomfortable at the plate, taking a lot of those odd half-swings, striking out a lot, and struggling to come up with extra-base hits.

While all of that is concerning, the signs of success are showing more and more as the games go on, evidenced by the exit velocities and xBA from his last 4 games.

Eight of his at-bats resulted in an excellent xBA, while the other six were pretty clear outs. Arenado is really starting to hit the ball with authority, and the results are showing, as his OPS has now crept above .700.

While being streaky has always been a part of Arenado's game, it is fair to keep a closer eye on his struggles this year after a sustained cold streak in 2023 and the injury concerns surrounding him. For now, though, I'm feeling good about where Arenado is heading, and I have few doubts that he'll be the middle of the order bat they need him to be very soon.

Concern level: 4

Jordan Walker

The curious case of Jordan Walker. On the season, Walker is in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity and 64th percentile in Barrel%, but here's the problem, his average and slugging continue to underperform as he is hitting the ball on the ground at far too high of a rate.

This was the issue that Walker was running to last year and caused him to spend about a month in Memphis to work on hitting more line drives and fly balls. Once Walker was recalled in June, he was having far more success at the plate, but it seems like he's gotten back into some of those bad habits once again this season.

My concern level of Walker long-term is pretty minimal. He has all of the talent in the world and has already shown the ability to produce at a high level for long stretches in a sustainable way. It's easy to forget he's still just 21 years old, younger than many of the top prospects who have yet to debut, so he has plenty of time to develop into the All-Star bat we think he can become.

For this season though, my concern level is raised a bit, mainly because I was anticipating a breakout season, not a sophomore slump. It's still so early in the season, so that breakout may be right around the corner, but he may need some more time and seasoning before he gets to that point.

I don't think Walker will end up making another trip to Memphis, but if things don't get better by the end of April, I wouldn't be shocked to see St. Louis make the move to help him work through his struggles.

Concern level: 6

Paul Goldschmidt

Much like Nolan Arenado, people seem to overstate the struggles of Paul Goldschmidt from a year ago. Sure, he was not the best hitter in baseball like he was two years ago, but he still posted an .810 OPS and was a very productive hitter.

This year, Goldschmidt is slashing just .183/.290/.233 in his first 60 at-bats. Concerning? Yes. And even though there is evidence to say that he's potentially on the decline, there's an elephant in the room that Cardinals' fans need to acknowledge that should help them find some peace.

Goldschmidt is a notoriously slow starter at the plate. March/April have always been the worst months of his year since he broke into the big leagues. Maybe he just needs time to get it going, or maybe it is hitting in warmer weather, but whatever it is, it's clear that Goldschmidt will crank things up multiple notches by the time May rolls around.

If your expectations of Goldschmidt were that he would be one of the best hitters in baseball again this year, your concern level though be pretty high. But if you expected Goldschmidt to be about 20%-25% above league average at the plate this year, I think those are still very fair expectations.

Once May rolls around, if Goldschmidt still can't get things going at the plate, my concern level will rise significantly. But until then, I'm sitting right in the middle between no concern at all and freaking out. I need a larger sample size before I sound the alarm, but I'm also not naive to think that there's no chance that Goldschmidt is falling off the cliff.

Concern level: 5

Nolan Gorman

Cardinals fans are still getting to know Nolan Gorman. He hasn't been in St. Louis for all that long yet, and I think there's a large portion of the fan base who just has not accepted how streaky of a hitter Gorman is.

Whenever Gorman goes through cold stretches, the tides turn against him quickly, and I feel like a lot of fans begin to freak out, call for him to be benched, or wonder if Gorman has what it takes to be a big bat long-term. And then what happens? Oh yeah, Gorman catches fire like no one else can.

Check out Gorman's wRC+ month-by-month during the 2023 season...

March/April - 135 wRC+
May - 155 wRC+
June - 22 wRC+
July - 152 wRC+
August - 80 wRC+
September/October - 145 wRC+

To recap, Gorman was 35% and 55% above league average in March/April and May, then dipped all the way down to 78% below league average in June, back up to 52% above league average in July, down to 20% below league average in August, and back up to 45% above league average in Sept/Oct.

Translation: Super streaky hitter.

Gorman is going to look like the best hitter in baseball some months, while other months he's going to look like Pete Kozma at the plate. He even has the ability to look like Taylor Motter offensively for an entire month if he's in that bad of a funk. But what do we know about Gorman? He finds a way to turn things on eventually.

I think there is zero reason to be concerned about Gorman at this point. Honestly, I'm super encouraged by the strides he's taken health-wise this offseason and how much better he looks defensively as well, and both of those things help Gorman remain a valuable player, even when his bat isn't on fire.

Concern level: 1

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