Ranking which young Cardinals starter is most deserving of a rotation spot in 2024

In order to get quality assets at this year's trade deadline, the St. Louis Cardinals decided to part ways with impact arms like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, and Chris Stratton. Considering the team was already razor-thin when it came to dependable arms on their staff, it's no wonder the pitching woes feel even worse today.

I can't think of the last time the Cardinals were in a position like this in late August, throwing together a rotation and bullpen that is a mix of innings eaters, expiring contracts, and young arms who could have a bright future with the club. For a team that needs to know what it has internally going into the offseason, opening up all of these opportunities was the right move.

As of late, we have seen Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, and Drew Rom all get shots in the Cardinals' rotation to fight for a bigger role with the club in 2024. The opportunities have come with mixed results, but overall, that group has given the Cardinals some interesting options to consider next season that I'm not sure any of us would have prior to their recent outings.

The Cardinals still plan to add three starting pitchers this offseason. Couple that with Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz, and that's a full rotation already. But every year, whether it's during Spring Training or shortly into the season, a rotation spot or two opens up due to injuries. Even if there is not an open rotation spot when the offseason ends, each of these young arms is fighting to earn the title of "next man up" when the need arises for St. Louis.

Even if it's unlikely, there's a chance that their performance down the stretch could lead to the Cardinals targeting two starters this offseason and having an open competition during Spring Training for the fifth starter spot. I still imagine the Cardinals will add three starters so they have plenty of options next season, but the last month of baseball could change that.

Let's look at which of the Cardinals young starters is most likely to factor into their rotation in 2024

Too far away: Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby

Tink Hence, the Cardinals' second-ranked prospect and consensus top-50 prospect in baseball, was promoted to Double-A not all that long ago and has already surpassed a career-high with 73.1 innings pitched. The Cardinals have been very patient in their development of Hence, and I do not see that accelerating his timeline any time soon.

This isn't to say that Hence couldn't show up in St. Louis in 2024. If all goes well, he could receive a call late into the year as another rotation option, or more likely a bullpen piece. 2025 feels like the year when Hence will really have an opportunity to fight for a rotation spot.

Tekoah Roby was acquired in the Jordan Montgomery deal and just came off the injured list after dealing with a shoulder injury in the last few months. He's set to make his Springfield debut on Saturday, so his timeline is really muddy right now. My guess is he gets some looks in Spring Training along with Hence, but but are likely bound for Memphis during most of 2024. I could see a scenario where Roby's debut comes a bit sooner than Hence's, but it's too difficult to predict without seeing him pitch in the Cardinals system yet.

Honorable mentions: Gordan Graceffo, Michael McGreevy, and Drew Rom

During the offseason, Gordon Graceffo's name was one that the Cardinals were very bullish on. They did not want to consider moving him in any trade talks, and I don't really blame them. He was coming off a very promising year where he rose quickly through the system and was gaining national attention, and the Cardinals were so thin with their pitching organizationally.

Graceffo has not lit up the organization like he did last year, struggling with injuries, and has been inconsistent at best for the Memphis Redbirds this year. He'll likely get a shot in 2024 to pitch for St. Louis, but I don't see him being the first man up.

Michael McGreevy has had a decent year in Memphis, but the fact that the Cardinals still haven't called him up says a lot about how they feel about McGreevy. He's got a low-ceiling as a starter, projecting as a back-end starter at best. He doesn't miss bats (92 SO in 123.1 innings pitched) and has a 1.43 WHIP as well. My guess is St. Louis will want him to repeat Triple-A next year and continue to refine his stuff before his debut.

Drew Rom got his first start for St. Louis this week, and it wasn't pretty. Rom gave up 8 hits, 4 walks, and 6 earned runs while striking out 4 batters in just 3.2 innings of work against the Pirates. Talent-wise, you would take Graceffo and maybe McGreevy over him, but he was already on the 40-man roster which is why he got the call this week. He was also pretty good for Memphis since being acquired in the Flaherty deal.

Rom feels like a depth option right now for St. Louis, as the three other names on this list feel far more likely to get shots at the rotation before Rom does in 2024.

2. Dakota Hudson

Remember when John Mozeliak said the Cardinals had six starters this past offseason? Well, Dakota Hudson was that lucky number six, and after finally getting a chance with St. Louis again, he's looked a lot better than he did in 2022.

Remember, before he had Tommy John surgery, Hudson was a very productive young arm for St. Louis. In 2019, he started 32 games and went 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA in 174.2 innings. The underlying metrics were never kind to him though, and finally caught up with Hudson last season. In 139.2 innings, he saw his ERA rise to 4.45, and he eventually lost his spot in the rotation.

Hudson began the year in Triple-A, and honestly, didn't look good. In 11 starts, he had a 6.00 ERA, and it looked like he was well on his way to being non-tendered in the offseason.

Upon his return to St. Louis though, he's actually better than he did the last calendar year as a starter. In 5 starts so far, he's posted a 4.00 ERA, has gone deep into games, and is 4-0 in those starts. Am I trying to sell him as the next great thing? No. But could that be a serviceable number-five starter? For sure.

Something interesting to note about his struggles in Triple-A while finding success at the Major League level this year. Jeff Jones talked about this in a recent story, but MLB has actually been experimenting with the automatic strike zone in Triple-A in games this year, and it has dramatically changed the strike zone. It's no wonder we are seeing so many pitchers struggle at that level this year.

As we currently stand, Hudson would be their second-best depth option on the roster, and I think that's a pretty nice place to be in for St. Louis. If injuries arise and they need a guy to fill in for a month, Hudson is more than adequate to take on that role. The number one guy on this list has the potential to be even more than that.

1. Zack Thompson

What a whirlwind of a season it has been for Zack Thompson. He started off the year as the Cardinals' top left-handed relief option. He wasn't great to start the year, but he wasn't bad either. In a surprise move by the front office, they optioned him down the Memphis to "prepare to be a starter" with the thought that he would not be back with St. Louis until 2024.

There's no sugarcoating it for Thompson, he was awful in Memphis. In 11 games (9 starts), he posted an 8.65 ERA and was only able to amass 34.1 innings of work. This looked like a massive mistake by the front office, and he was later called up by the club again to join the bullpen.

Something unexpected happened though on August 6th. Needing a bullpen game against the Rockies, Thompson got the "start" but was so good that they let him go 4 innings, striking out 8 batters while just giving up 1 run on 2 hits and 1 walk. Thompson looked like a completely different pitcher. Since then, he's made the most of his opportunities in the rotation.

Sub-4.00 ERA? Check. High strikeout-rate? Check. Keeping walks to a minimum? Check. Thompson has looked legit at times on the mound, and it seems like his cutter may be the key to his breakout.

Everyone knows that Thompson has an awesome curveball, but in order to be an effective starter in this league, you really need more than just two pitches in your arsenal. Thompson's fastball and curveball have never been in question, but the addition of this cutter (or some call it a slider) may have opened him up to being a meaningful starter going forward.

He has not gone past five innings in a start yet, but that is really by design. He's been yanked around as a reliever and starter this year, so they have to build him back up so he can have a higher pitch count. Wednesday's start saw him hit the 90-pitch threshold though.

If Thompson keeps this up down the stretch, he's easily my number one internal option to be the Cardinals' number five starter in 2024. The Cardinals need more guys like Thompson who can miss bats, so I am very encouraged by what we have seen thus far.