Ranking the value of the Cardinals' 10 best young position players

The St. Louis Cardinals are extremely thin when it comes to starting pitching talent. Sonny Gray will provide them with some much-needed talent at the top of the rotation, while Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn can help raise the floor of this staff with quality starts and innings galore. Still, the rotation leaves much to be desired in the eyes of Cardinals' fans.

If we focus on the pitching, things are, well, boring to say the least. But if we turn our eyes to the club's position players, it couldn't be much brighter than it is right now.

Stud veteran players? Yup. High-upside, young talent on the Major League roster? Check. Even more players coming up through the minor leagues? You bet. This is a whole other topic for another day, but outside of the Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves, I'm not sure there is another group of young position players you'd rather have for the next 5 years.

There are so many names that are already impact players on this Cardinals roster that have multiple years of club control remaining. There are players that are a year or two away from St. Louis that can be impact players as well. At some point, the Cardinals will need to cash in some of those position players for pitching talent, and when they do, we'll feel a lot better about their pitching situation.

Let's take a look at the 10 most valuable young position players that the Cardinals have in their organization. My criteria for this list were players who will have five years or less of service time at the end of the 2024 season and will not be free agents until after the 2025 season.

Here are the 10 most valulable young position players in the Cardinals organzation

Honorable mentions: Dylan Carlson, Leonardo Bernal, and Chase Davis

The list of honorable mentions makes me really appreciate the young position player talent that the Cardinals have.

Carlson continues to be underwhelming production-wise, but someone who could easily be a much better player long-term. He's shown the ability to be a good defensive outfielder who can rake against left-handed pitching, but that only carries him so far when he has a career .717 OPS overall. It wouldn't be shocking at all to see Carlson fly up this list in the near future, but for now, he just misses the cut. Don't forget, he finished top-3 in Rookie of the Year voting just two seasons ago.

Leonardo Bernal is a really intriguing catching prospect in the Cardinals' system who is just 19 years old and has already put up good numbers at the Cardinals' Single-A affiliate. A switch hitter, Bernal shows more power from the left side right now but has the potential to be a true all-around catcher. Catching prospects, especially so early in their development, are hard to project out, but with a strong 2024, Bernal may move up onto this top 10.

Lastly, Chase Davis, the Cardinals' first-round pick this last year, is a pretty raw prospect who boasts promising power and defense in the corner outfield. Again, we just haven't seen enough from Davis yet to let the promise push him onto this top 10, but he very well could find himself among the top names in the near future.

Now, let's get to the top 10.

10. Alec Burleson

Coming in at number ten is former top-100 prospect Alec Burleson. In his first full season with the Cardinals, manager Oli Marmol and the coaching staff showed a lot of trust in Burleson by putting him in some big spots throughout the year. He would get starts over Dylan Carlson, bat in the heart of the order at times, and be used as a pinch-hitter in big spots.

Burleson was up-and-down when it came to his performance in these spots and ultimately finished with a .691 OPS on the season, which I think prompted a lot of disappointment from Cardinals Nation. Had Burleson been utilized a bit differently, I think fans wouldn't be so cold on what he can bring to the table.

The Cardinals weren't just throwing Burleson into big spots for no reason. If you look at his Baseball Savant page, Burleson was in the 85th percentile in xBA, 68th percentile in xSLG, 73rd percentile in Hard-Hit%, 91st percentile in Whiff%, and 95th percentile in K%. Burleson also had the second biggest difference between his actual wOBA (.300) and his xwOBA (.337), further indicating how unlucky he was.

I'm not trying to tell you he's going to be a superstar, but the Cardinals saw how good Burleson was hitting the ball and how the results were not lining up for what he should be producing. Positive regression alone should help him out a ton in 2024, let alone any adjustments he can make at the plate.

While Burleson's bat is very promising as a high-average, low-strikeout guy with 20ish home run power, he's a bit limited defensively, which also keeps him lower on the list. He can play in the corner outfield, but he's not going to be an asset out there, and he's currently blocked from consistent opportunities at first base or designated hitter.

Burleson is a weapon for the Cardinals off the bench this year who will keep the offense going on days he gets a start. Long-term, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a trade to clear some of this logjam and see him blossom as an everyday player elsewhere. But if that opportunity comes in St. Louis, it's only a matter of time before Burleson's bat breaks out.

9. Tommy Edman

Sometimes I feel like I'm Mr. Negative when it comes to Tommy Edman, but it's mainly a product of how high I am on the other Cardinal position players.

I love Edman, and I believe he's a huge asset for any Major League team. His ability to play awesome defense at shortstop, second base, or center field is a trait few others have, and he pairs that with great speed and a league-average bat.

According to ZiPS, Edman is projected to be the Cardinals' second most valuable player in 2024 by fWAR standards (3.1), and it just goes to show why Edman is valued by the Cardinals - as well as other teams in baseball.

I see why the Cardinals want to hold onto Edman. He's been the glue that keeps things together too many times for them to just toss to the side, and I am not advocating for that at all. But when I look at the future of this club, I struggle to see how Edman has a significant role beyond the 2024 season.

Edman reaches his last year of arbitration in 2025 and then will be a free agent following the season. With so many other middle infielders and center field options on the roster who are cost-controlled for the next four to six years, I don't think it would be a wise investment to give Edman a long-term deal unless the Cardinals end up moving some of those other pieces. Edman could very well be getting anywhere between $12 million to $15 million annually over 4-6 years.

So, only having two years left of control and a limited offensive profile is what leads me to rank Edman lower on this list. Again, his defensive prowess and versatility are very valuable, but when you bake in long-term projections for other names on this list, he slots in at number nine for me.

8. Ivan Herrera

This time last year, the Cardinals were adamant that Ivan Herrera was not ready to have a significant role on the big league club. So how did Herrera respond to that? He was the Cardinals' 2023 Minor League Player of the Year and led them to part ways with Andrew Knizner to carve out a consistent role for him.

Posting a .951 OPS in Triple-A at age 23 as a catcher is going to catch the attention of a lot of people, and Herrera also made improvements defensively as well. While he remains a bat-first catcher, he is someone the Cardinals feel confident in managing the staff consistently in 2024.

Herrera had limited opportunities in St. Louis in 2024, but in the 13 games he did play, he posted a 0.5 fWAR and 122 wRC+, and will not get the opportunity to show the Cardinals what he can do on a consistent basis.

Remember, this list is about value, not necessarily who the best player is right now. Edman is the better player today, but six years of control for a promising catcher like Herrera is going to be a more valuable asset right now. While the Cardinals have Contreras entrenched for the next four seasons, Herrera allows them to have a great option behind him that can start 60-80 games for them next year, and his role will only increase as the years go on.

6. Victor Scott II

Speaking of another up-and-coming prospect, Victor Scott II is going to be one of the most exciting Cardinals players we've seen in a long time.

We all know about the elite speed at this point. He stole almost 100 bases in 2024 and could be leading the Major Leagues in steals in the very near future. What I find most impressive about Scott though is how well he knows himself as a player. In our conversations with Scott on the Noot News Podcast, he has made it a point to talk about how he's looking to continue to improve as a hitter, while not losing any of the things that make him so special.

Scott's improvement at the plate since being drafted by the Cardinals is nothing short of exceptional. John Mozeliak went out of his way to acknowledge it himself recently, and @KareemSSN on X (formerly Twitter) provided a deeper breakdown than I can on Scott's improvements in his ongoing ranking of the Cardinals' top prospects. I highly recommend the thread he posted on X below.

I haven't even talked about Scott's defense yet, which is another potential 80-grade tool. While his arm is average at best, he won a Minor League Gold Glove in center field in 2023 due to his advanced feel for the position and how he pairs that with his elite speed to get to baseballs that no one else can.

Someone whose floor as a player is the top base running threat in all of baseball with potential Gold Glove defense is someone I'm going to value very highly. Scott's progression at the plate continues to raise his ceiling as a player as well, and if all goes according to plan, he has what it takes to be one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball who leads the league in steals and wins Gold Gloves in center field. Get excited, Cardinals fans. And somehow he's only number six on this list.

5. Masyn Winn

I'm so high on Victor Scott as a player that I almost had him above Masyn Winn on my list, but Winn's track record at Triple-A which Scott does not have yet slots him in at number five on my rankings.

While Winn didn't impress beyond some flashes in his brief Major League debut, he's still someone that the Cardinals, and baseball in general, are very excited about. Winn has the strongest arm we have ever seen at the shortstop position, and if he can continue to develop his entire arsenal defensively at shortstop, he also has Gold Glove upside at the position.

While he's not in the same class as Scott when it comes to base stealing, he's a plus runner himself and someone who is going to swipe a long of bags at the big league level. What is going to make or break Winn's ceiling as a player is how his bat develops.

Winn himself has acknowledged that he tends to start his career slow at every level he has been promoted to, which showed true at both Triple-A and St. Louis in 2023. After a scorching hot Spring Training, Winn struggled out of the gate in Memphis, posting a .608 OPS in the month of April. Things slowly progressed through May and June before Winn took off in July and August with 1.177 OPS and .941 OPS respectively.

While Winn struggled at the plate in St. Louis in 2023, getting his feet wet has allowed him to enter this offseason knowing what it's like to hit at that level, and can now work at translating his top-end bat to ball skills and sneaky power to be an above-average hitter eventually. The expectation is that Winn will be below-league average at the plate in 2024, but if he's proven anything in his career thus far, it's that he tends to outperform what people think he can be at the plate.

The Cardinals have lacked a shortstop with Winn's upside for decades, and he has a chance to cement himself as the franchise's shortstop in 2024 for a long time.

4. Brendan Donovan

The Cardinals seem to be masters at producing under-the-radar prospects who come up to St. Louis and far exceed expectations. Brendan Donovan is one of the latest examples of that.

Coming into 2022, Donovan was the Cardinals' 12th-ranked prospect and was seen as an above-average hitter with below-average defense but versatility to play six positions. Donovan came up that year and instantly became a regular for the contending club, posting a 128 wRC+ in 126 games for St. Louis while winning the first-ever Utility Gold Glove.

He followed that up with another promising season in 2023, but his true potential was cut short by a frustrating elbow injury that sidelined him from the end of July through the remainder of the season. Donovan started the year slow, but from May 23rd until July 29th when he was shut down, he posted a .316/.395/.489 slash line with a 145 wRC+.

Donovan's truly elite on-base skills and continued improvement in both the contact and power departments make him the clear choice to leadoff games for the Cardinals in 2024, and he's quickly become one of the most valuable Cardinals in this organization.

Donovan will not hit free agency until 2028 and is in his final pre-arbitration season, giving the Cardinals a cheap and powerful weapon they can deploy all over the field on any given day.

Donovan's biggest "flaw" as a player right now is the drop-off in production against left-handed pitching. While he's posted a .801 OPS and 128 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 699 plate appearances, he's closer to league-average against right-handed pitching with a 102 wRC+. He has an identical .381 OBP against both right and left-handed pitching, so it's really only a matter of adding a bit more power against southpaws to balance things out.

Donovan continues to be massively underrated by many, but given a full season in 2024, it will be hard for anyone to ignore how great of a player he already is.

3. Nolan Gorman

There's been quite the debate amongst Cardinals fans about who the Cardinals should trade between Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman for a starting pitcher. Sometimes the arguments turn into tearing down or diminishing the other player in the process. Can we just agree that both guys are extremely valuable for the Cardinals and the goal is to hold onto both bats?

Donovan has been the superior offensive player thus far in their careers (sporting a 124 career wRC+ to Gorman's 113) while also providing value at five different positions. And yet, if I had to place value on the two, Gorman squeaks ahead of Donovan because of the insane power he has at the plate.

In 119 games last year for the Cardinals, Gorman slugged 27 long balls to go along with 76 RBIs while battling a nagging back injury. Gorman saw improvements across the board in his walk percentage, strikeout percentage, ISO, average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and weighted runs created plus, and will look to take another step forward into stardom in 2024.

One could argue he kind of already did that in 2024, but he was robbed of a massive final stat line due to injury, but mainly, an awful month of June at the plate where he posted a 22 wRC+. In all other months, Gorman posted 135, 155, 152, 80, and 145 respectively. Humor me for a second and let's compare the month of June for Gorman to the rest of his season.

Gorman was maybe the worst hitter in baseball in the month of June, and his 137 wRC+ in all other months would've made him 12th-best in all of baseball the rest of the year. That awful 76-plate appearance stretch tanked his numbers a ton of didn't do him justice as a player last year. Still, Gorman's streakiness has been a thing throughout his professional career, so there is a bit of "you've got to live with the lows if you want the highs" with him.

I don't think it's a reach to assume he won't be one of the worst hitters in baseball for an entire month again, so even just being closer to league average or slightly below league average in his down stretches next year can vault him into the conversations as one of the most feared left-handed bats in the game.

While Gorman will likely struggle with strikeouts his whole career, his ability to command the strike zone and draw walks raises his ceiling (and floor) as a hitter massively. He's not just swinging at everything thrown his way. He knows what pitches to hit, and when he makes contact, they go a long way. He's also proven to be able to do that in the biggest spots, as he's actually raised his game in medium and high-leverage situations with a 126 wRC+ and .829 OPS

Gorman is not going to be a plus defender at second base, but he made improvements last year and could be average defensively next year. While his defensive ceiling is limited, his bat is just so good and put that at second base, that's insanely valuable long-term.

Like many others on this list, Gorman is cost-controlled for a long time, not hitting free agency until at least 2029. He's not someone the Cardinals should be quick to move on from.

2. Lars Nootbaar

We've entered the top two names on this list, and international superstar Lars Nootbaar finishes as the runner-up in most valuable young position players for the Cardinals.

Nootbaar only played in 117 games in 2023 and still finished second on the Cardinals in fWAR. The missed games total was caused by a freak thumb injury in April while sliding and then a groin injury that caused him to miss 13 games that month and 13 more games in August after hitting a foul ball off his groin. He did miss 16 games from late May to the middle of June due to a back injury, which would be something to monitor more. Regardless, he missed 26 games due to weird, non-repeatable injuries, and it's clear that both injuries stunted his progression during the season.

During his brief month of June back from the back injury, Nootbaar has an abysmal 14 wRC+, and in September/October after his groin injury, posted a 77 wRC+. Yet, in his only real sustained run of play from June 19th all the way to August 16th, Nootbaar posted a .297/.384/.509 slash line with an .893 OPS and 144 wRC+. Nootbaar, when he's playing consistently, has shown he can be one of the best outfielders in baseball.

Although the majority of the games he missed in 2023 were freak injuries, he'll have to prove in 2024 that he can remain on the field to hit that potential that so many of us see in him. We aren't talking about a guy who hasn't been productive outside of those stretches though. Nootbaar had a 123 wRC+ in 2022 and 118 wRC+ in 2023, and has continuously provided above-average defense along the way as well.

Slotted as the everyday left fielder in 2024, Nootbaar will likely get to hit third in the order between Goldschmidt and Arenado when they face right-handed pitching and has shown improvement against southpaws as well. Nootbaar was already a very productive player in 2023, but 2024 is the year he blossoms into an All-Star caliber player and may even get some MVP votes along the way.

1. Jordan Walker

Touted as the best prospect the Cardinals have had since Albert Pujols and Oscar Taveras, Jordan Walker's development at the plate was overshadowed by an early season demotion and struggles defensively in right field.

Walker finished the year with a promising .276/.342/.445 slash line with 16 HR, 51 RBIs, and a 116 wRC+ in 117 games. His bat really began to take off as he solved some of that groundball rate, posting a 120 wRC+ after being brought back up to St. Louis (dropping his league-leading 60.4% ground ball rate down to 44.2%) and a 126 wRC+ during the final 56 games of the season (with just a 39.7% ground ball rate). For Walker to emerge as a true middle-of-the-order bat, his groundball rate had to come down, and when it did, he was a monster at the plate.

The next step in his development will be raising his pull rate a bit and maintaining a high hard-hit percentage when he's not driving the ball into the ground. His hard-hit percentage dropped a bit after fixing the ground ball issue, and if he can get that back to an elite number, the sky is the limit for Walker at the plate.

Remember, Walker was just 20 years old on Opening Day, and won't turn 22 until May 22nd. He's already one of the most promising bats in all of baseball, and he's younger than pretty much every other big leaguer.

FanGraphs' ZiPS projections actually see Walker being the best hitter on the Cardinals in 2024, with a projected .269/.338/.467 slash line with 27 HR, 84 RBI, and a 122 OPS+. In fact, they are so high on him, that they have his 80th percentile projection as being a .294/.363/.523 hitter with a 142 OPS+, which would have been the 10th-best OPS+ in all of baseball in 2024.

Walker is a special hitter. He showed that as he progressed throughout the season, and the nerdy projections from objective baseball analysts predict it as well. He has the potential to leapfrog into the conversation as one of the best hitters in baseball in 2024, but at the very least, the numbers say he'll at least be a top-40 hitter in the game.

Where Walker truly needs to prove himself next year is defensively. He has all of the tools to be a good right fielder, but last year was just terrible for him out there. Things looked better as the season went on and there's a good chance he's at least average in 2024, but that has to be proven on the field.

Walker will is not free-agent eligible until at least 2030, and with the way he is trending, the Cardinals need to lock him up on a long-term deal as soon as possible. Walker is the Cardinals' next superstar, and he may become that as soon as this coming season.