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Ranking the top 5 extension candidates for the Cardinals this offseason
Extending young talent is crucial for a championship team, so which players should the Cardinals extend this offseason?
The Atlanta Braves have cemented themselves as a model of consistent success in Major League Baseball after a 104-win season in 2023 and 6 straight NL East titles. Despite another disappointing first-round exit, teams across the league including the Cardinals should look to Atlanta as an example of how to build a winning franchise. One of the Braves' unique successes is their ability to value talent and extend young, controllable players at team-friendly prices. With Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, and Sean Murphy all signing team-friendly extensions, the Braves' run of dominance has no end in sight.
While the Cardinals have been burned by poor extension choices in the past, such as with Paul DeJong, Matt Carpenter, and Carlos Martinez, extended young talent has become a crucial part of championship teams, and the time is right for the Cardinals to secure parts of their deep position player core longterm.
Redbird Rants site expert Josh Jacobs, fellow contributor Sandy McMillan, and I discussed and ranked potential extension candidates on the Noot News Podcast this past week, and here is the full list of extension candidates we decided on.
Honorable Mentions:
Tommy Edman: 2023 cemented Tommy Edman as a true spark plug for the Cardinals. When Nootbaar, O'Neill, and Carlson all went down with injuries, Edman stepped up to fill center field and was so impressive that he would sometimes start in center over Nootbaar even after he returned. Edman also jolts the Cardinals' offense at the right times, as evidenced by walk-offs on back-to-back days against Padres' closer Josh Hader. While he's a true representative of the "Cardinal way," he may find himself out of St. Louis rather soon. With the emergence of Victor Scott II as a true 80-grade defender in center and the acquisition of Thomas Saggesse from the Rangers, Edman's tools are replaceable and he may be better utilized as a trade piece rather than an extension candidate.
Giovanny Gallegos: 2023 did not go as planned for Cardinals' setup man Giovanny Gallegos. The warning signs for his decline were planted before the regular season even started. With a chance to push Mexico into the World Baseball Classic, Gallegos suffered one of his many implosions allowing a double to Shohei Ohtani, walking Masataka Yoshida, and instead sending Japan into the final with a walk-off double by young slugger Munetaka Murakami. However, Gallegos has been an extremely solid reliever for the Cards since he arrived in 2018. With the volatility of relievers in baseball, Gallegos' consistency has been a bright spot. Extending him would be cheaper than ever, and a bounce-back 2024 season should be expected.
Ryan Helsley: Helsley has played fewer seasons than Gallegos, but his potential to be just as consistent is showing. Sure, he did have a similar implosion in the 2022 Postseason, but his return from injury in 2023 was extremely successful. After one of the best reliever seasons by a Cardinal in 2022, the flamethrowing closer posted a 2.45 ERA and 12.8 K/9 despite missing significant time are extremely promising. There may be some tension between him and the Cardinals' front office after last year's arbitration hearing, but that's mere speculation. Locking down Helsley long-term may be the best course of action to ensure a stable bullpen.
5 - Paul Goldschmidt
While many of these extensions involve buying out the prime years of young players, the case for extending Paul Goldschmidt is much different. After an electric 2022 MVP season, Goldschmidt took a few steps back in 2023. He wasn't anywhere near MVP level, but he was still a solid above-average hitter for the Cardinals at first base. However, the warning signs for his aging and regression definitely showed. His OPS dropped from .981 to .810 and his OPS+ from 177 to 121. His numbers were still very respectable, but there's no question his decline has begun.
However, Goldy's talents at first base will be extremely difficult to replace. Alec Burleson's offensive ability still hasn't developed as well as the Cardinals would like, and it's unlikely St. Louis will restrict super-utility defender Brendan Donovan to first base. Also, Jordan Walker will most certainly not be seeing any innings at first in the foreseeable future.
With only one year left on his current contract, the Cardinals are faced with a choice of either extending Goldschmidt or trading him. It's unlikely they allow such a key player to walk in free agency, and trading him to recoup value is also not happening. Mozeliak and the front office have made it clear they intend to keep both Arenado and Goldschmidt in an attempt to compete next year. Trading Goldschmidt would be walking back on that promise, and also likely force Nolan Arenado out of St. Louis (in a similar fashion to his exit from Colorado).
Goldy would also likely return on a team-friendly deal. He's expressed his love for St. Louis on numerous occasions, and his current contract extension was also a bargain for the Cardinals. If the price is right, extending Goldschmidt is a no-brainer. Championship teams always have steady veteran leadership, and his intangibles and leadership in the clubhouse as an experienced star are also extremely valuable.
4 - Brendan Donovan
After bursting onto the scene as an unknown rookie in 2022, Brendan Donovan immediately made an impact as a super-utility defender, beating out teammate Tommy Edman for the first-ever utility Gold Glove Award. Donovan fits the definition of a "spark-plug" player perfectly, as he's played solid defense at every position aside from center field and catcher. His offensive tools shouldn't be taken lightly either. He slashed .281/.394/.379/.773 during his rookie campaign, finishing 3rd in Rookie of the Year voting.
This past off-season, Donovan worked on generating more bat speed and power. After starting off 2023 slowly, Donovan bounced back in a big way, slashing .284/.365/.422/.787, successfully increasing his power without sacrificing his batting average. Despite playing 31 fewer games in 2023, Donovan slugged 6 more home runs.
Josh Jacobs broke down Donovan's successes at the plate in a separate article noting his torrid stretch from May 21 through the end of July. He slashed /316/.395/.489/.884 for a 145 wRC+, tied for 17th in all of baseball. Sure, those numbers probably aren't sustainable, but it's a sign of what's to come. The Cardinals' lineup is much better when Donovan is healthy.
Sadly, Donovan's elbow injury leaves him a bit lower on the list, as it has thrown his future as a super-utility defender into question. If Donovan is restricted to DH for some time as he recovers, his value will dip significantly. With this injury, Donovan might be more inclined to take an extension but the Cardinals might be less inclined to offer him one. On the bright side, the Cardinals' rough stretch allowed the team to shut him down early to rest and recover. Hopefully, we will see a fully healthy Brendan Donovan come this Spring.
3 - Nolan Gorman
Nolan Gorman took a massive step forward in 2023. After a quietly successful rookie campaign, in which he received unduly harsh criticism for his strikeout rate, Gorman adjusted his swing to handle high fastballs and improved drastically. In only 119 games, Gorman slugged 27 home runs and raised his OPS from .721 to .805. He showed immense promise to become the left-handed power bat that the Cardinals need between Goldschmidt and Arenado. Had Gorman stayed healthy, he easily would've hit 30 home runs as a second baseman, and possibly gotten close to 40. For a second baseman, that's comparable to only Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, and Marcus Semien.
There are reasons for concern with a possible extension, however. Nolan Gorman is an extremely streaky hitter. He was fantastic in 2023 during April, May, July, and September, but he was unplayable in June, posting a .439 OPS in 20 games. While this dreadful month makes it even more impressive that Gorman's season OPS was so high, the low end of his streakiness coming at the wrong times could be extremely costly for the Cardinals.
Gorman's first two seasons in St. Louis also profile extremely similar to a cautionary tale of player extensions: Paul DeJong. While I'm in no way saying that Gorman's career trajectory will follow DeJong's in any fashion, their similar profiles are definitely a cause for caution. With recency bias, many Cardinals fans have probably forgotten just how great Paul DeJong was in his first three seasons. He finished second in Rookie of the Year voting behind Cody Bellinger in 2017 and was selected as an All-Star in 2019, hitting .251 and slugging .467 during that stretch, exceeding Gorman's average and slugging of .232 and .454.
Both DeJong and Gorman were high-strikeout middle infielders with huge power numbers in their first few seasons. While DeJong outperformed Gorman in their first few seasons, it's clear Gorman still has room to grow and hasn't put everything together just yet. Sure, the two players are comparable, but it's extremely unlikely Gorman will suffer the same fate as DeJong. He's yet to play a fully healthy season, and his defensive numbers jumped significantly in 2023. DeJong's contract is something to be wary of, but should not deter the Cardinals from securing Gorman's services long-term.
2 - Lars Nootbaar
It seems a bit self-serving that the "Noot News Podcast" would have Lars Nootbaar so high on this list, but he certainly deserves this spot. Nootbaar was never regarded as a top prospect and for the longest time was viewed as a backup outfielder, but he's quickly been the most reliable and effective player in a constantly changing Cardinals outfield. After Harrison Bader was traded for Jordan Montgomery, many injuries from 2021 MVP candidate Tyler O'Neill, and Dylan Carlson never truly rounding into form, "fourth outfielder" Lars Nootbaar has stabilized an otherwise messy outfield situation.
Since his debut in 2021, Nootbaar has slashed .246/.351/.429/.780 and has improved greatly year-to-year. Combining his elite plate discipline and solid defense in center field, he's the first reliable leadoff hitter the Cardinals have had since Matt Carpenter. In 2023, his chase rate, whiff rate, and walk rate were all in the top 85th percentile according to Baseball Savant. He might not have the elite power of Nolan Gorman or the lightning speed of Tommy Edman, but Nootbaar's skills combined make him one of the most polished hitters on the Cardinals.
On top of his play, Nootbaar provides much-needed positive energy that reenergizes the clubhouse. When Noot injured his thumb on Opening Day, it coincided with the start of a losing skid the Cardinals would never rebound from. His enthusiasm and never-quit mentality were sorely missed. He's quickly become a fan favorite both in St. Louis and in Japan, and he's become one of the faces of the Cardinals. It's also possible his presence in the Cardinals dugout and Samurai Japan connections could lure up-and-coming Japanese stars to sign in St. Louis. (Roki Sasaki anyone?)
However, it's quite possible that Nootbaar would not agree to sign a team-friendly extension. Having been doubted and undervalued his entire career, he may want to test the waters of free agency to truly find his worth. Unlike some of the other players on this list, the Cardinals extending Nootbaar would not be a bargain, but rather solidifying a franchise cornerstone long-term. It's unlikely a Nootbaar extension would go wrong for the Cardinals, but the upside also wouldn't be very high.
1 - Jordan Walker
The expectations for Cardinals' top prospect Jordan Walker were immensely high going into 2023, and he did not disappoint. Sure, his outfield defense was unplayable to start the season, but he improved drastically over the course of the year. At just 21 years old, Walker showed his ability to become the next homegrown Cardinals superstar. He struggled at times, but Walker proved to be a complete Major League-ready hitter as he slashed .276/.342/.445/.787 for a 114 OPS+.
With Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, and Francisco Alvarez graduating at the start of the 2023 season, Walker was MLB Pipeline's number 1 overall prospect on May 14. Talents like Walker don't come around often, so the Cardinals need to extend him as soon as they can. When presented with life-changing money, young MLB players may accept a team-friendly deal to have their future secured. For example, Ronald Acuna Jr. accepted an 8-year $100 million extension following his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2018. Sure, Walker didn't have an Acuna-like rookie season, but his talent and promise is evident.
Walker showed great resiliency in his rookie season, facing more adversity than the average top prospect. Even after a demotion to Triple-A, a Cardinals team that wildly underperformed expectations, and transitioning to a new position on the biggest stage, he held his head high and maintained very good numbers at a very young age. Even with his ceiling untapped, Walker was an extremely solid hitter for the Cardinals. With his elite exit velocities, we can only dream of what will happen if he fixes his launch angle problem and starts elevating the baseball.
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With Walker's hitting and athleticism, a contract extension is unlikely to go poorly, even if done this offseason. If the Cardinals choose to wait on extending Walker, however, a breakout 2024 season could cause his price to skyrocket. If Walker does start elevating the ball and his home run numbers begin to spike, he may play himself out of the Cardinals' price range, causing the team to miss out on the prime years of a homegrown superstar.