Ranking the St. Louis Cardinals' 8 Most Tradeable Assets
The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be sellers at this year's trade deadline. A retool is the preferred route. Let's rank the players they do have and their market value.
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The St. Louis Cardinals may finally have a direction at this year's trade deadline. With President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak's recent comments, fans and reporters have a much better idea. While the team won't be selling off valuable assets (Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado), it sounds like players who aren't currently in the fold for the 2024 season are on the market.
This leaves the Cardinals with multiple tradeable assets at this year's deadline: Paul DeJong, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, Jordan Montgomery, and Tyler O'Neill. Mozeliak also referred to "household names" in the interview. This could include players such as Ryan Helsley, Dylan Carlson, and Tommy Edman. Lars Nootbaar could be a candidate, but I don't see the Cardinals dealing him given his strong advanced metrics and support from the city.
Let's rank these eight players on the possible return they may bring to the Cardinals. Keep in mind, some of these players are true "rentals", players who are free agents after this season, while others still have many years of control left. Team control is always a strong factor when evaluating trade candidates.
This list is not the likeliness of a possible trade. Rather, it is strictly the value these players hold and the magnitude of return. I will rank them from least valuable to most valuable. Let me also reiterate that the Cardinals are NOT trading Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado; these two players are integral parts of the 2024 lineup.
8. Tyler O'Neill
Once a power-hitting, Gold Glove wielding, MVP candidate, Tyler O'Neill has fallen very quickly from the sky. He always had an above-average strikeout rate, but the power he possessed outweighed those concerns. He also played a very strong left field to complement his offensive game.
However, injuries of late have hampered his on-field performance and in turn his trade value. On the season, O'Neill is slashing .228/.283/.337 for an OPS+ of 69 across only 92 at-bats. Perhaps the biggest detriment to O'Neill's trade value is the fact that he is on the 60-day IL. Injured players cannot be traded without permission from the Commissioner himself.
O'Neill doesn't hit free agency until after the 2024 season, and there is a possibility he returns to form once he is healthy. Maybe a team such as the Yankees would take a flier on him. He will not get much of a return for the Cardinals, however.
7. Jordan Hicks
Relievers rarely fetch a high-end prospect or strong major-league talent. For this reason only, there will be two relievers coming up. The first of those is Jordan Hicks. I place Hicks below Helsley for one reason: track record. Hicks has pitched 40 more innings in the majors, primarily because he tried his hand in the starting rotation in 2022. Hicks has a 3.93 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and strikes out 13.5 batters per nine innings this year.
Hicks has always been a flame-throwing reliever with serious movement on his pitches. He consistently hits 100+ MPH on the radar gun. His control and command are where he struggles. Jordan is in the 4th percentile in walk percentage in the league. While he does a good job at limiting hard contact and striking batters out, his command hurts his value.
Every contender needs a reliever, but they won't give up much to take a player on an expiring contract who has a tendency to walk nearly 15% of the batters he faces.
6. Ryan Helsley
Ryan Helsley holds more value than Jordan Hicks for two reasons: track record and team control. His career ERA is 1.50 points lower than Hicks' and his WHIP is .200 points lower than Hicks'. Also, Helsley is not a free agent until after the 2025 season.
Up until his injury on June 12th, Ryan Helsley was dealing once again. He strike out nearly twelve batters per nine innings, had a WHIP of 1.16, and he only allowed one home run across 25 innings. He also racked up seven saves. He is scheduled to return from the IL around in late July, with plenty of time to continue building his trade resume.
Teams will give a fair amount for a strong closer, especially when that closer is paired with another player. Ryan Helsley will fetch a pretty nice return on the trade market this year.
5. Paul DeJong
Paul DeJong still has value on many teams. A defense-first shortstop with a good amount of pop is appealing to many teams. Further increasing his value is his team-friendly contract that holds him down until after the 2025 season (including two team opt-outs). DeJong is currently tied for sixth in all of MLB for home runs.
While DeJong's metrics aren't strong (lots of blue on Baseball Savant), it is tough to argue with twelve home runs, seven outs above average, and a strong barrel percentage. DeJong's lack of walks and high strikeouts do dampen his value dramatically. Long gone is the offensive showcase he put on in his rookie season. He is now a league-average player according to OPS+.
Teams are always looking to shore up their middle infield. DeJong will provide strong defense and a strong bat. He could also provide value as a pinch hitter/defensive replacement. He has a career 144 WRC+ as a pinch hitter.
4. Jack Flaherty
Teams will ooze at the youth and high ceiling of Jack Flaherty. Contrarily, volatility and a lack of team control hurt his value. On the season, Flaherty has a 4.27 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 4.01 FIP, and is striking out nearly nine batters per nine innings. Flaherty struggled mightily with walks in his first few starts, but he seems to have that under control as of late.
Flaherty's true value lies in his ability to limit barrels and hard hits. His history of high strikeout rates and ridiculous WHIP numbers (0.968 in 2019) make him an interesting piece for any contender. He has a top-5 Cy Young placement on his resume as well.
Jack is a free agent at the end of this year, thus hurting his trade value. However, many teams would like to have his stuff as a third or fourth starter in a playoff rotation. Having the opportunity to negotiate and work on an extension before free agency may also be appealing to teams.
3. Tommy Edman
The super-utility player Tommy Edman should fetch plenty of interest this deadline. The Cardinals may want to hold on to Edman and take advantage of his defensive skillset. Masyn Winn's rapid ascension through the minors does open the door for a deal, however.
Edman has ample defensive versatility as he has logged innings at shortstop, second base, center field, left field, right field, and third base. He has posted positive numbers at most of those positions defensively. Teams who trade for Edman should not expect eye-popping offensive numbers. For his career, he has a .265 batting average, .319 OBP, and .408 slugging percentage for an OPS+ of 100, exactly league average.
Edman isn't a free agent until after the 2025 season. His team control, paired with his defensive versatility and serviceable bat, should make him an appealing trade candidate to contenders.
2. Jordan Montgomery
The only reason Jordan Montgomery is not #1 on this list is his lack of team control. Monty is a free agent at the end of this season. There is also a bit of a concern with his current injury, though not much.
Aside from these two detriments, Jordan Montgomery has been an ace-caliber starter for a year and a half now. Before his trade to the Cardinals, Montgomery was a middle-of-the-rotation guy who could buy you 160-175 innings a year and always give the team a chance to win. Since the trade, he has been at the top of the National League in all major stats for starters.
This year, Jordan has a 3.23 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 1.223 WHIP, and has pitched into the sixth inning in all but two of his eighteen starts. He is just below league average for strikeout rate, but he excels at limiting walks and hard hits. He has high groundball rates and should pitch very well with a strong defense behind him. Many teams will be calling asking about free-agent-to-be Jordan Montgomery.
1. Dylan Carlson
Sometimes I think I'm the only Dylan Carlson apologist left. Fans throw his name around often as a player the team should trade, dating back to last trade deadline with the Juan Soto saga. Carlson has done nothing but hit at an above-league-average rate while playing a strong outfield position.
Carlson is slashing .241/.342/.373 on the season. While one would hope for a greater slugging percentage, Carlson does a good job at drawing walks (72nd percentile) and not striking out (56th percentile). His defensive metrics are very strong as well (73rd percentile in OAA and 88th percentile in arm strength). His positive centerfield numbers are appealing as well.
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The 24-year-old has increased his average exit velocity and barrel percentages by 3 MPH this year as well, showing he has room for growth. Perhaps the most appealing aspects of Carlson are his switch-handedness and his team control. Whoever trades for Carlson has his services for another 3.5 years.
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