Ranking the St. Louis Cardinals' 5 biggest needs after the trade deadline
The Cardinals need to build upon a strong trade deadline by fixing their biggest holes this offseason
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The St. Louis Cardinals had an active trade deadline, adding much-needed depth to their organization by trading away impending free agents. While I was a big fan of their deadline moves, we all can agree, and the front office does as well, that they are far from done with making moves to improve for 2024.
This past offseason, the clear need that the Cardinals identified was a new starting catcher. Going into this offseason, it is clear that they will be targeting pitching in a variety of ways. How they choose to address their pitching needs will likely come in a variety of ways, with both smaller and bigger free agent signings and trades making up their offseason agenda.
It's not just as simple as needing an ace though. The club needs other pitching help as well, and may even need to look to add a certain kind of position player as well. There is no doubt the Cardinals will be very active this offseason, but how should they prioritize their agenda?
I've identified five different needs that St. Louis has this offseason, and ranked them in order of how important I think they are to address. The front office is under immense pressure this offseason to fill these needs, and I believe they will be more aggressive than ever in trying to do so.
Here are the five biggest needs the Cardinals have this offseason
5. True center fielder
While I don't necessarily think this is an issue for the Cardinals, it's never really seemed like they believed in any of their internal options to hold down the center field position this year.
Last offseason, Dylan Carlson seemed like the clearest option for the position, as they gave him the job after trading away Harrison Bader. Then after a Spring Training competition, Tyler O'Neill won the job. After injuries derailed the beginning of O'Neill's season, Lars Nootbaar took on the role. After Nootbaar hit the injured list, Tommy Edman seemed to impress the club in a big way out there. Now, they are back to running Nootbaar in that spot.
See what I mean?
While none of those options are plus-plus defenders in center field like Bader was, Nootbaar and Carlson do present the Cardinals with internal options. If the club sees Nootbaar as more of a corner outfielder though and does not see Carlson in their long-term plans, then an addition would be wise for the short-term.
I do mean short-term, though. Victor Scott II seems like the club's long-term solution there as he has torn up minor league baseball this year. The club's first-round pick this year, Chase Davis, has played exclusively in center field to this point as well.
So exploring a stop-gap option like Kevin Kiermaier or a reunion with Bader would give the Cardinals a great defensive center fielder once again to help their pitching staff and cover for some of the growing pains Jordan Walker has out in the corner.
4. Proven number five starter
The Cardinals' front office has consistently stated since the trade deadline that they intend to add three starting pitchers through free agency or the trade market this offseason. While I do not think that is a bad idea at all, I do rank that third arm, a number five starter, as their lowest need as I'm not sure it would turn into the offseason we all want them to have if they go that path.
Adding two impact arms in one offseason already feels like a bit of a stretch for this club. If one of those arms ends up being an MLB-proven, cost-controlled arm, then I could realistically see them grabbing three starters. But if the top two arms they acquire this offseason require larger contracts, I'm not sure I see this being realistic.
Also, having one open rotation spot, as long as they acquire legit arms for the other two spots, makes a lot of sense to me. The Cardinals have arms like Gordon Graceffo, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Tekoah Roby, Adam Kloffenstein, Sem Robberse, and Drew Rom who are all near-MLB-ready arms already. It would make sense to allow these arms to battle it out for that fifth spot next year, and then they will still have six other options they can go to if someone struggles or an injury happens. Not to mention the potential arrival of Tink Hence or even Cooper Hjerpe.
Still, I wouldn't blame them for adding an arm for the back end of the rotation this offseason if they'd like that certainty. Someone on a one-year deal that they can rely on for innings as those young guys develop would not be a bad idea at all.
3. Bullpen help
The bullpen has arguably been as big, if not even bigger of a problem, for the Cardinals during the 2023 season. They have blown 25 saves already this season as a group and have a bottom-10 bullpen ERA in all of baseball. It has been brutal.
Still, if Ryan Helsley can be healthy next year, and guys like Giovanny Gallegos, JoJo Romero, and Zack Thompson can all contribute in a meaningful way, they have arms ready. Wilking Rodriguez, their Rule 5 pick this last offseason who has missed the entire season with an injury, could factor in as well, as could a number of other internal relievers or even some of those young starters I talked about competing for the rotation.
Even so, adding one or two relievers from outside the organization would not be a bad idea at all. I do wonder though if they may wait until next year's trade deadline to add those arms, as it feels like every contender ends up needing to add relievers to their mix then. So perhaps just one arm to the bullpen in free agency or via trade would be ideal for now, especially with their two needs above this being so important.
2. Number two starter
Now we are getting to the real big needs. Before we get to the number one need on this list, we need to make it clear, the Cardinals need two new options ahead of Miles Mikolas on the depth chart.
Depending on how they address this need will impact how they can address their top need, and vice versa. Depending on how many dollars, or how strong of trade chips, they use to address either need will significantly affect how they can go about the other.
Unlike their top need, addressing the number two starter role could come in a variety of different ways this offseason. If the Cardinals jump into the free agent market for their number two starter, someone like Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, or Jordan Montgomery could fit the bill. One name they've been directly linked to that may have the most upside and come at a good price would be Japanese starter Shota Imanaga, who the club has already scouted and could be posted this offseason.
If the Cardinals can address this need as well as their top need, I really do see this being a quick turnaround for the club. If not, they will be in major trouble.
1. Front-of-the-rotation starter
It's time. The Cardinals have to find a player worthy of pitching on Opening Day, not just because of the history that player has with the organization or because he's their "best option", but a guy that can go toe to toe with the best in the game.
I don't care how they choose to acquire said player. They may have to offer a franchise record contract in free agency to get it done. They may have to part with multiple young bats that they really like in order to bring that player in. Whatever it takes, the Cardinals need that ace, and they need him by Opening Day.
The list of players that can fit this mold is pretty thin. In free agency, Aaron Nola or Japanese sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto are the two starters at the top of the market that St. Louis may find themselves going for. Names like Blake Snell or Marcs Stroman would fit the bill as well but at a smaller cost (or potentially years on the deal).
In the trade market, Dylan Cease appears to be the offseason's biggest trade chip on the market, so St. Louis will have to win a bidding war against other teams and offer the strongest package. They could turn their attention to Seattle and pursue Logan Gilbert, although he's more of a number two starter, or go after the Rays' Tyler Glasnow, who has injury concerns.
Whatever way the Cardinals choose to go in the "front-line pitching market", they will incur risk. It could be the risk of handing out a 5+ year mega deal to a starting pitcher, hoping they perform to the numbers they are getting paid. It could be hoping that the strong package they give up in a deal is worth the starter they get in return.
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No matter what, they have to pay the price to get an ace. They cannot go into Spring Training next year and say, "Well, the market was different than we thought it would be and we were not comfortable making those deals". That won't fly this time.
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