Ranking the National League Central's projected 2024 lineups

Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections for each team in Major League Baseball are typically the most accurate and detailed projections among analysts. The ZiPS projections for the St. Louis Cardinals, despite a dismal 2023 season, are actually quite optimistic. Dan's summative comments regarding the Cardinals' projections are reassuring, especially given the middling division the Cardinals find themselves in.

So what does it all add up to? ZiPS sees the Cardinals as having patched up enough of their immediate problems to return to winning 85-90 games, depending on what, if anything, the rest of the NL Central does this winter. Like most teams that have a suddenly horrific season, the Cardinals have become underrated in the public eye, and the hastily reassembled rotation, coupled with a solid bullpen and an above-average offensive core, could very well take one of baseball’s weakest divisions.

In my analysis of these projections, I discovered that the Cardinals have one of the best lineups in baseball still. Not one position has a projected WAR total below 2.1, and the Cardinals feature three well-above-average players in Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman, and Nolan Arenado. Willson Contreras and Lars Nootbaar aren't far behind either.

With the ZiPS projections being published for all teams, I wanted to look at which teams in the National League Central are projected to have the most formidable lineups in baseball next year.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates' position players are projected for only 16.7 WAR according to FanGraphs and ZiPS. The Pirates have three strong players in shortstop Oneil Cruz (2.1 WAR), third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes (2.6 WAR), and outfielder Bryan Reynolds (2.7 WAR). Beyond these three, however, ZiPS doesn't love the team's position players.

Center fielder Jack Suwinski is projected to have a modest 2.3 WAR season with a nice balance between offensive production and defensive capabilities. Endy Rodriguez, the presumptive catcher as of the beginning of the offseason, will miss all of 2024 due to a tear on his UCL during winter ball.

Pittsburgh's lineup is young and reasonably talented, but they lack the depth that can push them to the next level in 2024. If Pittsburgh can find more room in their budget, one more corner outfielder or designated hitter could elevate them slightly.

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4. Cincinnati Reds

The young Cincinnati Reds lineup is projected to accumulate 19.7 WAR according to ZiPS in 2024. The Reds employ an assortment of shortstops, or at least players who could be serviceable at the supreme defensive position. This positional superiority makes their roster construction murky. With the departure of Joey Votto, the team could also lack the leadership that they would need.

Players such as Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, and even Christian Encarnacion-Strand could all feasibly play shortstop. It's only possible to field one shortstop at a time, so most of those players will be forced into positions that may be unfamiliar to them. The signing of Jeimer Candelario only complicates the infield shuffle more.

Regardless of who plays where the Cincinnati Reds figure to have a decent position player core for next year. Second baseman Matt McLain is projected to lead the team in WAR with a total of 3.2, though most of that is supported by his defense, as a 108 OPS+ is only slightly above average. Candelario, Elly de la Cruz, TJ Friedl, and Spencer Steer round out the top five players for projected WAR.

Similar to the Cardinals, the Reds don't have any glaring weaknesses on the position player side of the game, but they could improve in the corner outfield and at designated hitter. A trade of at least one of their players could net the team a pitcher or even a high-powered offensive player. The Reds are scary with their youth and potential. Should all things click for their young players, they could take the Central by storm next year.

3. Milwaukee Brewers

In what may come as a surprise to many, the Milwaukee Brewers actually edged out the Reds, with the Brew Crew's position players projected to tally 19.8 WAR next year. Last year, the team had a wRC+ of just 92, meaning they were 8% worse than the average offense in 2023. Milwaukee batsmen primarily struggled with slugging (.385 team slugging percentage).

The Brewers lost two key batters in Carlos Santana and Mark Canha via free agency while adding both Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez to their mix. William Contreras and Christian Yelich are still on the team, and while regression is expected out of Yelich, he is still capable of putting together a 2.5-WAR season. Shortstop Willy Adames is projected to be their best player with a 4.1 WAR projection.

Milwaukee is relying heavily on its young players such as Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, and Bryce Turang to continue making strides next year. After a hot July (.840 OPS in thirty-six plate appearances), Frelick faltered, and he had an OPS of just .615 in September and October. Chourio, fresh off an eight-year, $82 million contract, hopes to be able to translate his minor league success to the majors.

Once again, the Brewers are relying heavily on their pitching next year. Their lineup will be solid, but it definitely won't lead the division in most statistical categories.

1. St. Louis Cardinals

Our very own St. Louis Cardinals are projected to have the best lineup in the National League Central in 2024. The Cardinals are projected to amass 25.3 WAR according to ZiPS from their position players next year. That would place them behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (29.3 WAR), Braves (32.5!! WAR), and Diamondbacks (26.3 WAR) in the National League alone.

The floor is high for the position players; not a single position is projected for a WAR total less than 2.1 in 2024. Nolan Arenado should have a bounceback season according to ZiPS, and Tommy Edman (3.4 WAR), Paul Goldschmidt (2.9 WAR), Willson Contreras (2.7 WAR), and Lars Nootbaar (2.4 WAR) round out the top-five projected WAR leaders for next year.

The team's defense won't be what it once was, although Masyn Winn sees a strong projection in his rookie season at shortstop. Nolan Gorman figures to continue to mash, and Jordan Walker's 80th percentile OPS+ of 142 would be tops on the team. Last year, the team finished sixth in wRC+ in the National League, but that has injuries baked into it that players may have otherwise played through if the team was in the playoff hunt (Arenado, Burleson, etc).

St. Louis's lineup has a nice balance of youth and experience, and on-base machines Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar should set the table quite well for the middle of the lineup. A return to the team's old defensive ways should bode well for the lineup's performance next year.