Ranking the ceilings of the St. Louis Cardinals' top pitching prospects

It's no secret that the St. Louis Cardinals have a pitching problem. Well, let's be honest, they have a lot of problems right now. But one of the core issues they've been dealing with in recent years has been the lack of homegrown pitching talent.

No one needs me to go into the whole Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara rant again. We've all been there and done that. What's most frustrating about their situation is the Cardinals did bet on some elite talents that showed success at the Major Lworseague level. Jack Flaherty, Alex Reyes, and Carlos Martinez all looked like or even were for stretches, ace-caliber starters. But no one has been able to maintain that role for the Cardinals.

There is a lot the Cardinals need to do to right their ship for the future of this club, but one of the most important things they'll need to do is find a way to develop starting pitching as they did in the early 2010s. Martinez, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly, and others provided much-needed pitching help for those Cardinal contenders.

Luckily for the Cardinals, there seems to be pitching help finally on the way, with some of those arms presenting elite upside.

Before we dive into these prospects, I used a mixture of a few different prospect lists to break down and draw my own opinions about these pitching prospects. These include Baseball America, MLB.com, Kyle Reis' Birds On the Black prospect rankings, and the "Data Driven Top 12 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects" by @KareemSSN and @CardinalsReek. Please check these out as they all provide excellent breakdowns of the Cardinals' prospects.

When ranking the ceilings of Cardinals prospects, I took into account both what they could turn into and what their floor is. Some guys may have slightly lower upside than another, but have a much better chance of panning out.

Here is how I rank the ceilings of the Cardinals' top pitching prospects

#6 - Brycen Mautz

Ranking on Cardinals' top prospect lists:
Baseball America: #15
MLB.com: #11
Birds on the Black: #17
Data Driven: NR (their list was only the top 12)

The Cardinals 2nd round pick in 2022 out of San Diego, Brycen Mautz spent his time in college bouncing between being an elite bullpen option and a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. This battle between being in the rotation or the bullpen will likely follow Mautz as he develops as a prospect.

Mautz has a really good fastball-slide combination from the left side, leading many to believe he could have a very high ceiling as a reliever. But the Cardinals are giving him a legitiment run at being a starter if he can figure out his control and up his velocity a little, his strikeout stuff could play in the rotation.

While Mautz can sit in the middle-to-upper 90s with his fastball in a relief role, he lingers more in the low 90s as a starter. He also has a brutal 4.17 BB/9 rate in 2023, which has to be improved before he can be a Major League starter. His 9.33 K/9 is exciting though, especially as he's in the very early stages of his development.

In 12 games this year, Mautz is 2-5 with a 4.17 ERA and 56 SO in 54 innings. The reason I have him ranked above McGreevy is because of that upside. If Mautz continues to work on his control, he can miss bats at a high rate. If he doesn't work out as a starter, he has a bright future as a high-end reliever.

#5 - Matthew Liberatore

Ranking on Cardinals' top prospect lists:
He has graduated from all prospect lists now but was generally ranked between #4-#12 in different rankings

This is not at all a shot against Matthew Liberatore, I just think there are guys who have higher ceilings than him as a starter. But Liberatore does present the Cardinals with a left-handed starter who fits more as a back-end-of-the-rotation guy but still brings strikeout stuff.

After a disastrous 2022 season, Liberatore tumbled out of the Top 100 prospect rankings and down most Cardinals prospect lists. His lack of velocity on his fastball and inability to locate it got him in tons of trouble both in St. Louis and in Memphis.

2023 was a different story while he was in Memphis. Liberatore went 4-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 46 innings of work, earning a promotion to St. Louis and eventually replacing Steven Matz in the rotation.

It hasn't been talked about much, but his run in the rotation hasn't been pretty so far, posting a 5.14 ERA in his first 21 innings of work. I'm not down on him, but he does need to right the ship.

Liberatore earned a spot in the St. Louis rotation due to major improvements to his fastball, general command, and a return to having good strikeout stuff. Like McGreevy, Libeartore can help stabilize the Cardinals' rotation with a quality arm long-term, but should not be expected to lead the staff.

#4 - Max Rajcic

Ranking on Cardinals' top prospect lists:
Baseball America: #10
MLB.com: #17
Birds on the Black: #19
Data Driven: NR (their list was only the top 12)

Max Rajcic is probably a new name to many people reading this, but he's begun his professional career on an absolute tear for Single-A Palm Beach. In 11 games, Rajcic is 6-2 with a 1.59 ERA and 60 SO over 56.2 innings of work.

Baseball America just did this midseason update, launching Rajcic from the 20s of the Cardinals' team rankings all the way up to #10. Rajcic was a top recruit when he signed with UCLA in 2020 but was not the player people thought he'd be at UCLA and fell all the way to the 6th round in 2023. The Cardinals signed him with a well above-draft slot bonus in order to get him to come out of UCLA.

Rajcic's fastball sits in the low 90s, but his true "out" pitches are his curveball and changeup. He throws strikes but does have that sneaky strikeout stuff due to his offspeed arsenal.

There is still room to add velocity to his game, and if he does, he can profile very nicely at the big-league level. Rajcic doesn't really have a path toward being a front-line starter in this league, but as I've watched him pitch and dove into him as a prospect, I do think he has upside as a #3ish starter if he continues to impress like he has.

#3 - Gordon Graceffo

Ranking on Cardinals' top prospect lists:
Baseball America: #6
MLB.com: #4
Birds on the Black: #5 (2.d)
Data Driven: #4

Here is where we get into the exciting young arms for St. Louis. Gordon Graceffo was selected in the 5th round of the 2021 MLB Draft and really impressed the organization and scouts last season, launching himself up prospect lists.

2023 has been more of a struggle in Triple-A Memphis, posting a 1-2 record with a 4.91 ERA over 22 innings. He's only been able to start 5 games due to injury, but he still boasts really high potential.

There is a reason why Graceffo was someone the Cardinals held tightly to in trade talks this offseason. He's got a four-pitch mix featuring a mid-90s fastball that can hit 99, his go-to wipe-out slider, a 12-to-6 curveball, and a low-80s changeup.

I think some people have gotten a bit carried away with the upside of Graceffo, as he seems much more like a high-end number three starter or low-end number two starter than an "ace", but none the less is still a very valuable arm to have.

At 23 years old, he still has a ton of time to develop as a starter, and hopefully he's able to bounce back from his Injured List stint this year and put himself in the conversation for the Cardinals' 2024 rotation. If the Cardinals sell off some of their arms at the deadline this year, there is a chance we could see Graceffo later this year.

#2 - Cooper Hjerpe

Ranking on Cardinals' top prospect lists:
Baseball America: #5
MLB.com: #5
Birds on the Black: #2 (2.a)
Data Driven: #5

You can't help but watch Cooper Hjerpe and see Chris Sale the whole time. He's go that iconic left-handed, deceptive sidearm motion that Sale has used to dominate baseball.

While the production of Sale is quite lofty and would be insane if he reached that, I see the Cardinals' 2022 1st-round selection as someone who could be as good as a low-end number one starter, or as "low" as a really good number three starter in this league. Just watch the way he dices through six no-hit innings for the Peoria Chiefs.

At just 22 years old and with only 39.1 professional innings under his belt, there is still a lot of room for development with Hjerpe, and yet, he's already looking like a special arm for St. Louis. In 8 games at High-A Peoria, he is 2-3 with a 3.66 ERA and 49 SO in 39.1 innings pitched. His first professional action has been at the third highest level of minor league baseball, and he's already proven he belongs.

His delivery gives him deadly deception on all his pitches, making each of them play up even more. His fastball sits in the low 90s but hits 94 occasionally, and I would imagine he could up that a bit more as he develops. All three of his offspeed pitches produce swings and misses, making Hjerpe someone who is very difficult to predict on the mound.

Kyle Reis of Birds on the Black is especially high on Hjerpe, writing this about him in his preseason rankings.

"It's rare for the Cardinals to have a prospect as unique and intriguing from the college ranks as Cooper Hjerpe is. That's mostly because Cooper Hjerpe is a unique pitcher that baseball rarely sees. There is All-Star and top of the rotation potential here, and it might not even be that far away if Hjerpe can stay healthy."

If you don't know Reis' work, he watches more Cardinals' Minor League Baseball than probably anyone on earth. I couldn't agree more with his assessment of Hjerpe, and I was even tempted to rank him as number one on my list due to the floor I see with him.

His command and ability to "pitch" rather than just be a "thrower" of the baseball should allow him to move quickly through the Cardinals' system, potentially even reaching St. Louis in 2024.

#1 - Tink Hence

Ranking on Cardinals' top prospect lists:
Baseball America: #2 (#34 overall)
MLB.com: #3 (#59 overall)
Birds on the Black: #4 (2.c)
Data Driven: #2

Tink Hence was a part of that elite 2020 Draft Class with Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn, selected at #63 overall, and now has the chance to be one of the best pitching prospects in the game. Don't believe me? Take it from Baseball America.

"One of the most exciting pitchers in the minor leagues, Hence will look to take on a bigger workload in the coming seasons. If he can hold his stuff deep into starts, he could one day rank as the top pitching prospect in the game."

They already have Hence as the #34 overall prospect in all of baseball, and he's still a guy who hasn't been fully unleashed to pitch deeper into games. He was finally allowed to go five innings twice in the month of June so far, something that will be key to his future as a starter.

Everyone is high on Hence' stuff, with Baseball America grading his fastball and curveball as plus pitches and his slider and changeup as above average, and MLB.com giving his fastball and curveball plus grades with his slider and changeup being above average.

Across 9 games in 2023, Hence is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 35 SO over 35 innings at High-A Peoria. He is still only 20 years old, making him two years younger than Hjerpe and three years younger than Graceffo. Hence has tantalizing talent, is already producing results with it, and cannot even legally buy a drink yet. See why there is hype around him?

As you can see in the video above, Hence even got a chance to pitch in Spring Training games this year, allowing just 1 run and 3 hits in his 3.1 innings of work while striking out 5 batters. He did walk 5 guys though, something he's struggled a bit with in his professional career but has improved greatly this past year.

Hence has legit ace potential, and should have a chance to make an impact in St. Louis by the end of the 2024 season. I'd like to say he could be starting next year, but with how slow they've been with him to this point, I feel like he's more likely a candidate in 2025. I sure hope it's sooner though, as Hence is a special talent.

Check out my weekly podcast "Redbird Rundown" on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and Google Podcasts as well as follow me on Twitter @joshjacoMLB for more Cardinals content