Ranking the Cardinals' top 8 trade targets after the MLB GM Meetings

#8 - Michael Kopech (Chicago White Sox)

Let's start this list off with a bit of a surprise candidate: the White Sox's Michael Kopech.

On the surface, Kopech is an odd choice, but depending on how the Cardinals address their top two rotation spots, he could fill in rather nicely as their third addition. Kopech took a major step back in 2023, posting a 5.43 ERA in 27 starts and 3 relief appearances. His walk rate was way too high (6.3 BB/9) and he just couldn't seem to get outs when he needed to.

Here is where the promise comes in though. Kopech has elite stuff. In 2021, he was mostly used as a reliever, throwing 69.1 innings with a 3.50 ERA and 13.4 SO/9. In 2022, he made 25 starts, posting a 3.54 ERA butt seeing his SO/9 dip to 7.9. Maybe Kopech was trying too hard to get his strikeout stuff back in 2023, but it's clear the talent is there.

Kopech is arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, and with the White Sox in sell mode and looking to cut costs, they may be ready to move on from him.

Mozeliak has talked about the idea of adding a third arm that can either start or come out of the bullpen depending on the first two arms they acquire. Kopech would fit this bill, and would not require $10m-$13m a year to do so. He has the ceiling to be a very impactful starter or a high-leverage reliever, so he seems like a guy worth taking a gamble on.

I'd imagine decent prospects or someone like Dylan Carlson could get a deal done here. The White Sox have said they are open to trading anyone, so we could see Kopech on the move this offseason.

#7 - Clayton Beeter (New York Yankees)

Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch has reported (subscription required) that the Yankees have interest in some of the Cardinals' young bats, namely Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson. They were also interested in Dylan Carlson at the trade deadline, but it's not clear if their interest is still there.

One name the Cardinals reportedly have interest in from the Yankees is prospect Clayton Beeter, he posted a 3.62 ERA in 27 games across Double-A and Triple-A last season. One of the major appeals here is his swing and miss stuff, as he struck out 165 batters in 131.2 innings of work in 2023.

Acquiring a guy like better for Carlson or maybe even Burleson could make sense for both sides, but I do not see a scenario that makes sense for the Cardinals to send Donovan to New York. They do not have any young pitching that makes sense for St. Louis on that level, and so if their hearts are set on him, the Cardinals should not be entertaining that. Goold's report has said that the Yankees have viewed both Donovan and Burleson as potential targets, but has said nothing about the Cardinals feeling the same way.

Beeter, like Kopech, could make a lot of sense as a fifth starter in 2024 who could also end up in the bullpen as well. His stuff clearly plays, and even if he is not starting for St. Louis, he should be able to be a very effective reliever in the immediate future.

If the Cardinals choose to invest high dollars to their top two pitching targets, then someone like Beeter would make sense to acquire at a low salary but high upside. If I had to bet, the Yankees and Cardinals won't make a deal unless it involves one of the Cardinals smaller pieces, but only time will tell.

#6 - Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners)

When the Cardinals are linked to the Mariners as trade partners, the conversation often centers on their young star Logan Gilbert. I tend to think the price for Gilbert would be too much for the Cardinals to stomach, but I wonder if either side may come to an agreement on a deal for one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo.

Miller and Woo both made their MLB debuts in 2023 and have many years of club control ahead of them. Their ceilings are yet to be fully determined, but becoming borderline front-line guys over the next few years feels like fair expectations. The Mariners will not part with either of them for a cheap package, but I do think they would be more available than Gilbert is.

It may take someone like Brendan Donovan to pull off the trade, but I wonder if Thomas Saggese could be the perfect centerpiece here. Saggese, acquired at the trade deadline from the Texas Rangers, won Double-A Most Valuable Player in 2023 and will surely rank highly on top-100 prospect lists going into 2024. He's got a very projectable bat with the versatility to play all over the diamond, something that any team in baseball would be interested in.

I don't know if Seattle would entertain something like this, but if I'm the Cardinals front office, my interest in Miller or Woo ends when they ask for any of Gorman, Donovan, or Nootbaar. The Cardinals need those guys to win now, and although I really like the ceilings of Miller or Woo, I don't think they are more than middle or back end of the rotation starters for 2024.

If the options in free agency or the trade market were thinner, my stance may change, but I think there are better values out there for 2024 that make more sense for St. Louis.

#5 - Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays)

This list has a lot to do with the upside that each of these pitchers offer as well as the price it will take to acquire them. Alek Manoah is by far the biggest wild card on this list, but the rumored asking price is crazy low (and for good reason).

Manoah made headlines this year for being just plain awful for the Blue Jays, eventually being sent all the way down to their instructional league to figure out what was going on. In 2022, he finished third in AL Cy Young Voting with a 2.24 ERA in 196.2 innings of work. During his rookie season in 2021, he made 20 starts with a 3.22 ERA. Manoah was one of the best young pitchers in baseball when he first came up but somehow seems to have lost that ability at this moment.

It's been reported by multiple MLB insiders that the Cardinals and Blue Jays may line up for a Manoah trade, with the Cardinals giving up Dylan Carlson to make the deal happen.

Carlson hasn't had the steep decline that Manoah has, but since the 2022 trade deadline, his stock has plummeted significantly. The switch-hitting outfielder hit just .219/.318/.333 in 76 games for the Cardinals, battling different injuries throughout the year and eventually having season-ending ankle surgery.

At just 25 years old, he still had the potential to be a significant contributor for a Major League ballclub, so a change of scenery could do him well. The same could be said of Manoah, which makes them intriguing candidates to be swapped in a trade.

Should the Cardinals trade for Manoah, he does not hit arbitration until next offseason, so he would be coming on a cheap salary. He should be nothing more than a bounce-back candidate for the back end of the rotation but would have the upside to slot in as a number one or number two if he gets back to his form before the 2023 season.

#4 - Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners)

The Cardinals have been linked to Logan Gilbert since the beginning of the summer, and we all understand why. Gilbert is a young workhorse with a ton of upside, doesn't reach arbitration until next season, and is under team control through 2028.

Gilbert posted a 3.73 ERA in 190.2 innings for the Mariners this year with an 8.9 SO/9 and 1.08 WHIP. While he's more like a number three starter right now, it won't be long before he's pitching like a number two or even a number one starter for a staff. Getting Gilbert for 2024 and the following three seasons would be a huge win for the Cardinals' organization.

Here's the problem, you're not getting a deal done without giving up one of Nolan Gorman or Lars Nootbaar, and you may need to include Brendan Donovan with one of those guys as well. The cost to acquire Gilbert is great, and rightfully so.

While the long-term status of the Cardinals' pitching is not exactly compelling, names like Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, and Cooper Hjerpe offer the kinds of upside the Cardinals' have lacked from their internal options in recent years. As much as it would be nice to have Gilbert be one of those sure things for them, they really need one or two of those guys to pop in the coming years.

The Cardinals' primary focus right now needs to be on the 2024 rotation, and improving it without major subtractions from the club's lineup. Acquiring Gilbert would require parting with one of their best young bats, and I don't think that's where the Cardinals should be heading.

Maybe the Mariners asking price changes and they are willing to acquire more prospects in a deal. They are rich with starting pitching options outside of Gilbert (George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales, Emerson Hancock, etc.), but I'm sure they want an immediate offensive upgrade if they are going to explore dealing Gilbert. The Cardinals can meet the asking price, I'm just not sure that's the best idea for the immediate or long-term future of the club.

#3 - Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians)

Let's be clear: Shane Bieber is not an ace anymore and will not require a haul to acquire. If the Guardians somehow look for that, the Cardinals should hang up the phone. Assuming his value on the open market is that of a number three starter with a sizeable contract and one year of control left, his price should be cheap enough to entice the Cardinals.

Bieber is set to make about $12 million in arbitration next year, which is a very affordable number for the Cardinals. His stuff declined in 2023, as he posted a 3.80 ERA in 21 starts with the Guardians and saw his SO/9 dip to 7.5, down from 12.5 SO/9 back in 2021. Bieber was still a Cy Young contender in 2022 with a sub-9 SO/9, so he's shown the ability to pitch at a high level even with diminishing stuff.

Still, the injuries and decline in his stuff have dipped his value significantly. If the Guardians are serious about trading him, a package centered around one of Tyler O'Neill or Dylan Carlson plus a low-level prospect should get the job done, and frankly, it may not even require the prospect.

Bieber cannot be relied on as a number one or two starter in 2024, but the beauty with him is you know he has that upside in him. I also think his floor should be fairly high, as if he's healthy, I cannot imagine him being worse than a number three starter in a rotation. The price to acquire him in terms of trade capital makes the risk feel worth it as well.

Bieber will turn 29 during the 2024 season and is going to want to cash in next offseason. He's going to do everything in his power to prove to Major League Baseball that he's worth a big contract, which makes me even more intrigued by him.

#2 - Dylan Cease (Chicago White Sox)

Dylan Cease is another front-line starter linked to the Cardinals this offseason. The Chicago White Sox are prepared to trade anyone on their roster as they look to begin their rebuild, and Cease is the best asset on their Major League roster outside of Luis Robert.

Cease will take a haul to acquire, but surely not as much as Gilbert. The White Sox will likely want a mix of young MLB talent as well as strong prospects, something the Cardinals could muster up rather easily.

I put together a list of trade proposals the Cardinals could offer the White Sox a few days ago, as there's a variety of routes they could choose to go here depending on Chicago's asking price.

Tommy Edman seems to be linked to the White Sox, as they have a need for a shortstop or second baseman, and Edman can fill either role through the 2025 season. If Edman were the significant MLB piece heading Chicago's way, then they'll likely need to send some top prospects as well.

I'd imagine one of Tink Hence or Tekoah Roby would be needed in this deal, with a bat like Thomas Saggese potentially being that third piece of the puzzle. If the White Sox want someone like Brendan Donovan or Nolan Gorman as the centerpiece, then the prospect capital needed should become less significant.

Cease has a Cy Young candidate in 2022 but was less effective in 2023. His stuff did not experience a drop-off, so he's still the same guy who can take control of a game on the mound, but he needs to figure out what went wrong for him compared to his breakout campaign.

Cease is under team control through the 2025 season and will make less than $10 million in 2024. So not only is his talent that of a top-of-the-rotation starter, but he would cost more like what a number four or five starter would get in free agency, helping the Cardinals maintain salary flexibility to add other significant starters to the mix.

Any deal for Cease is going to hurt, but that's what it takes to acquire talent that is cost-controlled like him. The Cardinals should be one of the main teams interested in Cease, especially if they strikeout on some of the top free agents available.

#1 - Tyler Glasnow (Tampa Bay Rays)

I covered three new trade ideas for Tyler Glasnow on Saturday, as the fit here for the Cardinals continues to make more and more sense.

The Cardinals have a strong interest in Glasnow and have been planning to talk about a potential deal with the Rays for months now. Glasnow is in the last year of his contract with the Rays and set to make $25 million in 2024, which would be a franchise-record salary if the Rays choose to keep him on the roster. The Rays have never been shy about moving on from star talent before they lose them to free agency, even when they are contending (see Blake Snell).

Glasnow made 21 starts in 2023, throwing 120 innings with a 3.53 ERA and an insane 12.2 SO/9. There's an arguement that he has the best stuff among all starters in baseball, and I covered some of his insane metrics in my trade ideas piece.

The injury concerns with Glasnow are real, but the potential with him is too great to pass on for the price point. For the Rays, they have the opportunity to free up cash flow while getting a few assets in return. The acquiring team will take on his contract, and depending on how much of it they acquire, the return the Rays can expect will be substantially lower than what a front-line starter is typically worth.

The risk-reward here for St. Louis is actually a lot lower than many make it out to be. If Glasnow misses significant time during the season, they only gave up minor pieces to acquire him. No matter how he does for the Cardinals in 2024, they can extend a qualifying offer to him and receive an extra draft pick in 2025, which will bring them back a lot of that value they gave up. I'd have to imagine Glasnow is motivated to have a huge year and cash in big time this coming offseason.

If all goes well, they can look to extend him following the season, or if his market does not materialize in a loaded 2025 free-agent pitching market, he may come back on the qualifying offer, which is great value for a guy like Glasnow.

Even if the Cardinals only get 20-25 starts from Glasnow in 2024, they are getting a guy who can go toe to toe with any pitcher in baseball every time he's on the mound. That's something they have not had in their rotation for a long time. He's also been available for the Rays' postseason runs the last few years, which is what will matter to the Cardinals most this coming year.

The Cardinals should be on the phone with the Rays non-stop until a deal gets done. With so many other starting pitchers available via trade this offseason, the market for him won't be as crazy as it could be, and the Cardinals may be the best positioned team either way to make a deal.