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Ranking the Cardinals biggest threats in the NL Central in 2024
While the National League Central is one of the weakest divisions in Major League Baseball, there are still some tough teams. Which teams pose the biggest threat to the Cardinals in 2024?
The St. Louis Cardinals had control of the National League Central for the better part of two decades. Since 2000, the Redbirds have won the division 11 times. In the remaining 11 years in which they didn't win the division, they made it into the postseason as a Wild Card in 5 of those seasons.
The Chicago Cubs had a run from 2015-2017 in which they were the favorites in the division; the Brewers have been led by a strong starting rotation in recent years; the Pirates have shown the possibility of contention, especially in the mid-2010's. However, things appear to be changing quickly.
The most recent MLB.com midseason prospect rankings placed the Cardinals' farm system 22nd overall. The trade deadline moves provided some boost, but the graduation of Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, and others in recent years sure brought down the team's high-end prospect talent. The other 4 division rivals in the NL Central have farm systems that are ranked much higher. The Reds are ranked 5th overall, the Cubs are ranked 4th, the Brewers are ranked 3rd, and the Pirates have the second-best farm system in all of baseball.
In addition to the worst farm system in the division, the Cardinals' 2023 season has left fans worried about the team's future control of the division. Underperformance and questionable management are definitely concerns for this team in the future. While the Cardinals have a lot to do to even contend in the division next year, they would be wise to keep a close eye on their counterparts in the NL Central.
Which teams in the National League Central pose the biggest threat to the Cardinals in 2024 and beyond?
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates once challenged the Cardinals and Cubs for the division crown for about half of a decade. However, recent teams haven't been as kind to the Pittsburgh loyal. This year, the Pirates have surpassed the Cardinals in the division. However, their current lineup, history of spending, and prospects leave a little to be desired.
For the 2023 season, the Pirates have a total payroll just under $69 million. They have $20 million on the books for 2024, per Spotrac. Pittsburgh's front office's penchant for saving money doesn't spell a spree this offseason. The Pirates do have 6 players in the top 100 of MLB's prospect list, including this year's #1 overall pick, Paul Skenes. This youth infusion will do them well for the next 5+ years.
While the Pirates have an exciting farm system and plenty of payroll space, they don't appear to be a major threat in the NL Central just yet. It is unlikely the Pirates contend for top free agents in the 2024 offseason; furthermore, the players who are currently starting for the Pirates aren't top-end talents. It is more likely that the Pirates pose a greater threat in 2025 and beyond for the Central crown.
3. Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds were favorites to win the division as recently as 2020. A massive sell-off between 2020 and 2022 gutted the major league roster. Players such as Jesse Winker, Wade Miley, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, and Eugenio Suarez were all shipped off for a large number of prospects. This dismissal of talent from the major-league roster left the team with very few viable major leaguers this year.
That script is starting to quickly flip, though. With a league-leading 14 professional debuts this year, the Reds are clearly starting a youth movement. Some of those players, such as Noelvi Marte, Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Matt McLain, and Andrew Abbot are players who figure to lead the team for the next 6+ years. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft are potential studs in the rotation. Suffice it to say, the Reds have a huge list of young players currently playing in the majors.
In addition to recently promoted prospects, the Reds tout a long list of top-100 prospects in their farm system. MLB.com ranks their farm system 5th overall. It is highlighted by Noelvi Marte, SS (#24 overall); Rhett Lowder, RHP (#44); Edwin Arroyo, SS (#61); Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B/3B (#72), and Connor Phillips, RHP (#73). With so many young, talented shortstops, the Reds have the ability to either move those players to positions of need or trade them for established players in positions of need.
It is tough for a team/franchise to get out of a losing funk. The Reds have been very bad for the last two years. Their deep farm system, young MLB roster, and early success in 2023 show that they have the potential to be one of the top teams in the National League Central. The Cincinnati Reds could be a big problem in the division in just a few short years, possibly as early as next year.
2. Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs won the World Series as recently as 2016. They tried to contend for the next few years, but could not make it past the NLDS in 2017 or 2018. At that point, the Cubs' front office found it best for the team's future success to begin selling off former centerpieces and letting key players sign with other teams. The rebuild was started in 2020 and finished around 2021.
Since then, the Cubs have toiled at the bottom of the division. While they made some moves this offseason, only Dansby Swanson's record deal moved the needle for the team with offseason projections. Signing Cody Bellinger felt like a flier, Jameson Taillon was never going to be a top-end starter, and Trey Mancini appeared to be a filler piece for a team. However, Dansby has been as reliable as ever, and Bellinger has returned to his MVP status this year. This set the Cubs up to be buyers at the 2023 trade deadline when they traded for All-Star Jeimer Candelario from the Washington Nationals.
The Cubs figure to be in on Shohei Ohtani this offseason, as they were back in 2018. The Cubs also have a top-three farm system. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the 12th-ranked prospect overall and the 5th-best outfielder. Kade Horton, a right-handed pitcher, is ranked 31st overall, and Kevin Alcantara, an outfielder, has been an impressive prospect who is rising in boards across the country. Having Cody Bellinger on their roster this year has allowed the Cubs' brass to make an early pitch for him to stay in the Windy City.
A franchise with money to spend, a third overall farm system, and talent already on the major league roster spell trouble for divisional rivals. The Cubs are a force to be reckoned with both this year and next year. Should they sign Shohei Ohtani this offseason, the Cubs will vault into one of the best teams in the National League, let alone the division.
1. Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals have been duking it out at the top of the division for the last 5 years. The Brewers won the division in 2018 and 2021, and they made the playoffs in 2019 and 2020. The Brew Crew appear to have a strong hold on the division this year, as they have a relatively comfortable five-game lead on the Cubs as of August 29th.
A good team begins with a strong rotation, as the Cardinals found out the hard way this year. The Brewers are led by Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, two ace-level pitchers. Freddy Peralta has shown the ability to lead a staff as well. Christian Yelich has found his swing again, and Willy Adames and William Contreras are swinging strong bats this year.
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The highlight for Milwaukee this year was their collection of "Freshmen", as they are locally dubbed. Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Bryce Turang are all rookies. Each is performing well, especially Frelick since he was called up in late July. Not only do the Brewers have young players performing in the majors, their farm system is deep. They have 5 players in the top 55, all of whom are at AA or higher currently. Jackson Chourio (OF) is the second-overall prospect in all of baseball, and he has the potential to make the roster next year out of Spring Training.
While the Brewers won't necessarily spend to fill out a roster, they will make the shrewd trade here and there to fill any holes they have. They traded for William Contreras and Jesse Winker this offseason. Their pitching will always play in the majors. The Cardinals will have to dethrone the Milwaukee Brewers to retake the division in 2024.