Ranking the Cardinals 6 most valuable trade candidates they can sell this offseason

#1 - Sonny Gray

This may be a surprise to many, but the more I dove into the Sonny Gray situation, the more and more convinced I became that the Cardinals could get something really good for him in a trade, with the only real obstacle being how many teams he would be willing to go to.

On the surface, Gray's 3.84 ERA in 28 starts doesn't scream massive trade value when he is set to make $25 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026, but his 3.12 FIP and 30.3 K% both show that he was much, much better than his ERA indicated. Gray's FIP ranked seventh among all starting pitchers this year and his K% only trailed Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal. Pretty darn good company if you're asking me.

Gray's main issue in 2024 was a major spike in his home runs allowed, which really hurt him in the middle of the summer especially. While regression in that area was expected, I'm not sure anyone thought Gray would rank among the worst 16 starters in HR/FB rate. I would expect positive regression there. We just saw Lance Lynn go from allowing the most home runs in baseball in 2023 by a mile to getting back toward the middle of the pack, so I have full confidence Gray and his elite stuff can do the same.

This is also fresh off a year where he finished second in American League Cy Young voting in 2023, and while he will be 35 years old next year, that is the same age as Chris Sale is this year and multiple years younger than what Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were when they got massive short-term deals in free agency.

Scherzer signed a three-year, $130 million deal and Justin Verlander got a two-year, $86.7 million deal from the Mets prior to the 2023 season. Both pitchers were coming off Cy Young contending seasons, but the annual value on both of their deals was $43.3 million, quite a bit higher than the $30 million AAV Gray has the next two seasons. And again, he'll be four or five years younger than both of those pitchers were when they got their deals next season.

When Verlander was traded to the Astros at the 2023 trade deadline, the Mets agreed to pay $35 million of the remaining money Verlander was owed, putting Houston on the hook for $25.8 million in both 2023 and 2024, which is almost a million more than Gray makes in 2025 and $9 million less than his 2026 number. In return, the Mets got Drew Gilbert, who was a top 70 prospect in baseball, and Ryan Clifford, the Astros' second-ranked prospect.

When Scherzer was traded to the Mets at that same deadline, the Mets ate $35 million of his remaining money, and were able to get Luisangel Acuna in return, who was a top 90 or top 50 prospect in baseball depending on which scouting outlet you looked at.

If the Cardinals do not eat any money on Gray's deal, I think they get a good but not great return for him. But if they even pay down just a bit of the money, let's say $15 million, I think they could be looking at a really good return here. Especially with Gray being a good amount younger than Verlander and Scherzer were upon their trades.

There are some intriguing starters in free agency this year, but the ones in Gray's tier of talent will require massive long-term commitments. Even so, everyone needs pitching, so a player of Gray's caliber is just going to draw interest no matter what is out there.

It's a shame to think that the best-starting pitcher the Cardinals have had in years may be traded this offseason, but it makes a lot of sense if St. Louis can get this kind of return.