Ranking the Cardinals 6 most valuable trade candidates they can sell this offseason

The St. Louis Cardinals are facing the reality of self-proclaimed "reset" this offseason. This may end up being the most interesting winter this organization has seen in decades due to the wide range of moves we could see them make.

I can't remember an offseason where the Cardinals were sellers on the trade market. We saw them embrace that identity for the first time at the 2023 trade deadline, but that was supposed to be making the most of a lost season in order to get the train back on the tracks. It was a temporary identity. Now it is a philosophical shift.

One could argue this is a temporary one as well. If they truly pull this off as a "reset" rather than a rebuild, they could be back on their feet in 2026 and trending toward contender status once again.

It's more likely that the Cardinals will have a bit of a longer road back to their true goals of contender status. Getting back to just barely being good enough to make the playoffs is not where Chaim Bloom set the bar at their press conference. They want to get back to being one of the premier organizations in baseball, but it is going to take time to get there.

Because of that, it seems likely that the Cardinals will move multiple veterans this offseason as they prioritize player development and shift their window for contention toward future years. The Cardinals could still be competitive in 2025 with a young core, but winning will not be their main priority next season.

With that being the case, it makes little sense to hold onto names like Ryan Helsley, Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras, among other highly-priced veterans on their roster. Instead, St. Louis should look to capitalize on their trade value now, thus adding value to their farm system or major league club that can help them in 2026 and beyond.

Today I wanted to rank six of those potential trade candidates in the order of trade value I believe they have. There are multiple things that need to be considered when making this list, such as their ability, contract, age, and whether or not they have a no-trade clause. All of these things impact their value in some way and result in where they were placed on the list.

Here are the 6 most valuable trade candidates the Cardinals can sell this offseason

#6 - Nolan Arenado

It feels odd having Nolan Arenado be the least valuable trade candidate on this list, but I think you'll understand why very quickly if you did not think so already.

Arenado is coming off perhaps the two worst seasons of his career outside of the pandemic-shortened season. When Arenado was traded from the Rockies to the Cardinals prior to the 2021 season, the Rockies had to eat $50 million of Arenado's contract and got a weak package in return, despite the fact that there was real hope Arenado could turn in some great years in the future.

Well, now Arenado is 33 years old and hasn't played great baseball since prior to the 2023 All-Star Break. He still provides value on the field for sure, but I'm not quite sure anyone wants to pay a player who has posted 5.8 fWAR over his last two years combined the remaining three years and $74 million he is owed.

The annual value does decrease each year of the deal ($32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027), and the Rockies are kicking in $5 million for both 2025 and 2026. Still, it's quite the contract for an aging veteran who has been in a steep decline, no matter what kind of name power Arenado has.

There's also the fact that Arenado has a no-trade clause and would likely have a very small list of teams he would be willing to go to if not just one. That's part of why the Cardinals were able to swing the kind of deal they did for him originally, as the Rockies really had no choice other than to keep Arenado or trade him to St. Louis.

If Arenado green-lights a trade, I'd be shocked if it is to anywhere other than Los Angeles, unless the Dodgers do not want him. Then perhaps he would open up his options to other clubs, but I feel like Arenado ending up with the Dodgers makes too much sense at this point.

The Cardinals may have to pay money down on Arenado's deal, and even if they do that, they likely won't get anything in return unless they kick in a lot of cash. If the Dodgers know they are not bidding against anyone else, and they are probably doing the Cardinals a bit of a favor acquiring him, then they can basically give nothing up to get this done.

There are two ways I could see Arenado's trade value being a bit higher than I am giving it credit for. The first would be if he is open to a variety of destinations, as that creates a bit of a market for St. Louis to potentially negotiate with. Second would be if Arenado is okay staying with the Cardinals, as then St. Louis has leverage to say they do not have to trade him. If a team really wants him, then they'll have to give up more than I thought they would.

I'm going to say it's far more likely that Arenado will ask for a trade to the Dodgers, and that gives the Cardinals basically zero leverage in negotiations. Hence why I see Arenado being the least valuable asset they have to move out of their "seller's" pieces.

#5 - Steven Matz

I did not include Miles Mikolas on this list as the Cardinals' new direction does not seem to necessitate his trade. The Cardinals would need to eat the majority of his contract to get a club to consider acquiring him, and at that point, wouldn't it just make sense to let him provide some innings next year and potentially get moved at the deadline as a rental arm if he pitches well? The Cardinals need at least some arms in their rotation to start next year, even if we know Mikolas won't provide quality innings.

Steven Matz, on the other hand, I could see the Cardinals getting a deal done if the right team comes along. Matz has dealt with injuries his entire contract with the Cardinals, and the $12.5 million he is owed in the final year of his deal in 2025 is not a crazy number.

I do think the Cardinals would have to pay it down a bit in a trade, but not much. Like Arenado, I wouldn't expect the Cardinals to get much in a trade, but it's far less money for them to eat to get any value back.

A team could trade a very low-rated prospect for Matz while the Cardinals eat $4m-$5m of his deal. In doing so, the acquiring club would get Matz at like $7 million or $8 million in 2025, which would be a bargain if he is a starter and a slight overpay if he ends up in their bullpen. If the Cardinals kicked in another million or two, then it becomes quite the bargain play for that club.

Why would a team consider this? Well, the typical veteran starter will get a minimum of $12 million on the open market, so acquiring Matz with money kicked in would save payroll for a club that needed veteran pitching depth. Matz can also pitch out of the bullpen unlike a lot of starters in that price range in free agency, making that versatility a bit interesting to me.

Arms are always in demand, even ones as messy as Matz. Again, I'm not expecting anything of value for Matz here, but you're likely eating a lot less dollars than Arenado, Matz does not have a no-trade clause, and more teams could be interested.

The rest of the names on this list have varying levels of arguments for real value in return.

#4 - Erick Fedde

The Cardinals' big trade deadline acquisition this year, Erick Fedde was supposed to be as much about the 2025 club as he was an upgrade for their 2024 rotation. Now he may be one of their best assets to reload their farm system this offseason.

While Fedde wasn't as sharp with the Cardinals, he did finish the year with a 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP over 177.1 innings of work. With below-average strikeout stuff, Fedde won't wow anyone on the mound, but he has shown the ability to get outs at a high level in 2024 and should be an attractive rotation upgrade for someone this offseason.

Fedde is set to make just $7.5 million in 2025, a huge bargain for someone who just pitched like a number three starter this year. FanGraphs has this stat called "Dollars" where they calculate a player's performance during a season and equate it to how much they'd be worth on the open market for one year, and Fedde's value in 2024 came out to $27.5 million.

Obviously Fedde wouldn't get that in free agency for one year, but he sure would get a lot more than $7.5 million if he were a free agent this offseason. Fedde reinvented himself during his stint in the KBO and is now someone that contending rotations would love to have as an option - hence why national outlets thought the Cardinals got a steal in Fedde when they gave up Tommy Edman.

So what exactly could a Fedde deal fetch the Cardinals this offseason? Well, there's actually a really good comp from right before the 2022 season that should give us a glimpse at what the Cardinals could expect when shopping Fedde this offseason.

On March 12th, 2022, the Oakland Athletics sent Chris Bassitt to the New York Mets in exchange for pitching prospects J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller. Bassitt was set to make $8.8 million in his final year of arbitration and was coming off a 157.1-inning season where he posted a 3.15 ERA and 3.34 FIP. Bassitt had slightly better strikeout stuff than Fedde but most other metrics measured out closely, making this about as similar as you could get to the situation that Fedde is in.

Per that same "dollars" stat from FanGraphs, Bassitt's 2021 campaign was worth $26.4 million just a hair below Fedde's value in 2024. Oakland was able to net Ginn in return, who was the Mets' fifth-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline and sixth by Baseball America. Ginn was near MLB-ready at that point as well, which adds to his value. Oller was more of a throw-in prospect in that deal.

Not a flashy return by any means, but that's helpful value when revamping your farm system and looking toward the future. Sure, the Cardinals could hold onto Fedde and hope to slap him with a qualifying offer the next offseason, extend him, or deal him at the deadline, but it would make way more sense to sell high now and get what you can for him.

#2 - Ryan Helsley

Speaking of real value, Ryan Helsley can provide that for a contending team in 2025, and the Cardinals are not one of those. That means they need to trade him with only one year left of control before he hits free agency.

I hate the idea of losing Helsley, but it makes way more sense to get a great return for him than to have an elite closer for at best a low 80s win team in 2025. Many would argue that the Cardinals should have pulled that trigger at this past trade deadline, and I can't argue with them.

Helsley is due for a massive payday next offseason, something I do not envision the Cardinals coming anywhere close to. We've seen Edwin Diaz sign a five-year, $102 million deal and Josh Hader get a five-year, $95 million deal as well. I'm not sure Helsley will match those numbers, but he'll be in the ballpark for sure.

Considering the fact the Cardinals do not sign starting pitchers to deals like that and rarely do with position players, I think it is safe to say they will not be bringing back a closer on that kind of deal.

Instead, the Cardinals can look at recent examples of elite closers being moved in trades, like the Brewers shipping off Josh Hader to the Padres or the Cubs acquiring a rental Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees in 2016. Neither deal is a perfect match for Helsley's situation, but both did net a good return for the selling club.

Even with Hader struggling in 2022, the Brewers managed to get a good closer in return in Taylor Rogers, a bounce-back candidate starting pitcher in Dinelson Lamet, and two of the Padres' top ten prospects for Hader. I think it's safe to say the Brewers sold Hader at his lowest value as well, even with the year and a half remaining of control. I would be shocked if Helsley did not bring back more in return.

The Cubs traded away a top 50 prospect in all of baseball in Gleyber Torres, along with pitcher Adam Warren and two minor league outfielders to acquire a half-season of Chapman on their World Series run in 2016. The deal for Chapman was extremely aggressive, to say the least, but worth it for a club seeking to win its first World Series in over 100 years. It was probably an overpay by value standards, but considering Helsley has a full year of control, I think it provides a good idea of what he could be worth.

And unlike most of the names on this list, Helsley does not have a no-trade clause, meaning the Cardinals can take the best possible package offered to them and even create a bit of a bidding war. Especially when you consider the weak reliever class we are going to see this offseason.

In free agency, there is not a dominant reliever who is expected to get a mega-deal this offseason. There are a lot of guys who could be good value play, but if a club wants to lock down the ninth inning next year, Helsley is far and away the best option for them.

#1 - Sonny Gray

This may be a surprise to many, but the more I dove into the Sonny Gray situation, the more and more convinced I became that the Cardinals could get something really good for him in a trade, with the only real obstacle being how many teams he would be willing to go to.

On the surface, Gray's 3.84 ERA in 28 starts doesn't scream massive trade value when he is set to make $25 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026, but his 3.12 FIP and 30.3 K% both show that he was much, much better than his ERA indicated. Gray's FIP ranked seventh among all starting pitchers this year and his K% only trailed Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal. Pretty darn good company if you're asking me.

Gray's main issue in 2024 was a major spike in his home runs allowed, which really hurt him in the middle of the summer especially. While regression in that area was expected, I'm not sure anyone thought Gray would rank among the worst 16 starters in HR/FB rate. I would expect positive regression there. We just saw Lance Lynn go from allowing the most home runs in baseball in 2023 by a mile to getting back toward the middle of the pack, so I have full confidence Gray and his elite stuff can do the same.

This is also fresh off a year where he finished second in American League Cy Young voting in 2023, and while he will be 35 years old next year, that is the same age as Chris Sale is this year and multiple years younger than what Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were when they got massive short-term deals in free agency.

Scherzer signed a three-year, $130 million deal and Justin Verlander got a two-year, $86.7 million deal from the Mets prior to the 2023 season. Both pitchers were coming off Cy Young contending seasons, but the annual value on both of their deals was $43.3 million, quite a bit higher than the $30 million AAV Gray has the next two seasons. And again, he'll be four or five years younger than both of those pitchers were when they got their deals next season.

When Verlander was traded to the Astros at the 2023 trade deadline, the Mets agreed to pay $35 million of the remaining money Verlander was owed, putting Houston on the hook for $25.8 million in both 2023 and 2024, which is almost a million more than Gray makes in 2025 and $9 million less than his 2026 number. In return, the Mets got Drew Gilbert, who was a top 70 prospect in baseball, and Ryan Clifford, the Astros' second-ranked prospect.

When Scherzer was traded to the Mets at that same deadline, the Mets ate $35 million of his remaining money, and were able to get Luisangel Acuna in return, who was a top 90 or top 50 prospect in baseball depending on which scouting outlet you looked at.

If the Cardinals do not eat any money on Gray's deal, I think they get a good but not great return for him. But if they even pay down just a bit of the money, let's say $15 million, I think they could be looking at a really good return here. Especially with Gray being a good amount younger than Verlander and Scherzer were upon their trades.

There are some intriguing starters in free agency this year, but the ones in Gray's tier of talent will require massive long-term commitments. Even so, everyone needs pitching, so a player of Gray's caliber is just going to draw interest no matter what is out there.

It's a shame to think that the best-starting pitcher the Cardinals have had in years may be traded this offseason, but it makes a lot of sense if St. Louis can get this kind of return.