Ranking the Cardinals 10 most realistic starting pitching fits this offseason

Right now, all signs seem to indicate that the St. Louis Cardinals will be making a lot of moves this offseason, something that we all want to see happen, but people have been rightfully skeptical of.

Until the Cardinals actually make any significant move(s) this offseason, there will be many who won't believe their rhetoric. But according to reports close to the situation, it sounds like ownership is finally on board to spend. Before you say "I've heard this before", no we haven't. We may have heard them say they'll explore markets, but we've never heard that ownership is in agreement with the front office that they must meet the price of pitching this time around. They've got to put their money where their mouth is, but this time it seems like they actually want to - rather than fans just wishing it would happen.

Assuming the Cardinals follow through on their intentions, what starting pitchers seem the most realistic out of the free agent pool and trade market? They want to add three starters, and really need at least two of them to be top-of-the-rotation talents, but how could will they go about doing so? I went ahead and ranked the ten most realistic options in my opinion based on what is linked to the Cardinals at the moment. Not just names that we want them to pursue, but names that insiders say St. Louis is actually interested in.

Many of these names come via the reporting of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold, who has confirmed the club's interest in each of these names. While they obviously won't acquire each of these pitchers, I've ranked them in order of who I see the Cardinals actually acquiring.

10. Trade with Seattle

At one point, I was convinced, like many others, that a deal with the Seattle Mariners involving one of the Cardinals' young bats and the Mariners' young pitching was just too perfect of a fit. Now, I'm really not sure either side will make the deal happen. This isn't for a lack of interest from either side, I just don't think Seattle and St. Louis will be able to come to an agreement on a price.

The name that was floated around the most from the Mariners was Logan Gilbert, who the industry thinks is way more valuable than most thought in the early summer. After posting a 3.73 ERA in 190.2 innings and four years of club control still, Gilbert is one of the most valuable assets in baseball. It would likely be Lars Nootbaar plus other talent, or both Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan, to get the Mariners to be serious about an offer.

I like Gilbert a lot as a player, but that's just too high of a cost to pay when the Cardinals could go out and sign the top-end pitching they need, or trade for someone with a little bit less control but would require a lot less in return.

Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller seem like more realistic trade candidates, but once again, are either of them worth moving Nootbaar, Gorman, or Donovan for? I don't think so. If Seattle is willing to make a deal involving other names for Miller or Woo, I'm all ears. Seattle's front office has been pretty open about their desire to hold onto all of their young pitching, and I don't blame them.

9. Blake Snell

Both Bob Nightengale and Derrick Goold have linked the Cardinals to Blake Snell, which is really encouraging to hear. If there was one starter I would've bet the Cardinals would not want to seriously consider (outside of Julio Urias), the name would have been Snell.

Snell is about to win his second career Cy Young after going 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA in 180 innings for the Padres this year. He is a strikeout machine, fanning 11.7 batters per nine innings, but also walks the world, allowing five free passes per nine as well. Snell is an extremely talented pitcher, but one has to wonder how long he can sustain success with how reliant he is on his swing-and-miss.

The Cardinals need swing-and-miss stuff badly, but I do think it's fair to be concerned with that starter also giving up so many free passes. Strikeouts help you get out of jams. What if they fall off? Does Snell plummet as a pitcher? He'll be 31 before the start of the 2024 season, and outside of his other Cy Young season in 2018, he hasn't been anywhere near this good.

Maybe Snell has finally come into his own as a pitcher and is ready to take the next few years by storm, but there seems to be a lot of risk here for a guy who's likely to get the biggest contract out of all of the starters available.

Would I be excited if they got Snell? Of course. I really do think they have real interest. But at the end of the day, I think the Cardinals would lean in the direction of these other options, rather than outbidding the market on Snell. I don't blame them for doing so, as long as they stay at the top of the market as their alternatives.

8. Trade with Miami

Like Seattle, the Miami Marlins just feel like a perfect trade partner with the Cardinals. Last offseason, the two sides talked about trades, but eventually, Pablo Lopez was dealt to the Twins for Luis Arraez, which tells me they wanted one of Nootbaar, Donovan, or Gorman from St. Louis.

The Marlins could use more punch in their lineup, but with the recent news that Sandy Alcantara will miss the 2024 season, I'm not sure the Marlins will be heavily shopping their arms now.

I definitely wouldn't rule it out, as even with Alcantara out next season, they still have Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers to lean on, as well as more prospects coming up through the system. They could also look to bring in some low-cost veteran starters to supplement their rotation (like they did with Johnny Cueto this year) and use that pitching to get an impact bat.

I really like multiple arms on the Marlins staff. They are not trading Perez, but you could make a compelling argument for any of those arms to be a part of the Cardinals rotation next year. I think all of them slot best as their third-best starter next year, rather than one of their top two answers, but they'd fill that role well and have cost control left as well.

Like Seattle though, what is the price point going to be, and would it make sense for St. Louis? The amount of control they would be acquiring is going to race the asking price, but I would much rather them target a higher upside arm with only a few more years of control than pay a premium for a lesser starter with more control. They need top-end talent more than they need controllable arms.

If the asking price is right though, one the Miami arms would still be great get for St. Louis.

7. Dylan Cease

There's a lot to like about Dylan Cease. At age 27, he still has a lot of years ahead of him, and his stuff is among the best in the league. For his career, he is striking out 10.8 batters per nine innings, and was masterful in 2022, posting a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings of work.

The White Sox sure seem like a team in need of a major rebuild, and although they shopped Cease at the deadline, it seemed like they were not going to move him without a massive haul. Maybe their asking price comes down this offseason, but if not, they may not be able to move him unless a team is desperate for him.

Maybe that team is the Cardinals, but with a lot of other options at their disposal, I don't see them throwing a ton of assets into a deal for Cease. He's coming off a major down year, where his ERA ballooned to 4.58, but his FIP was 3.72 and he still ate innings while striking out batters. I think he will bounce back next year, but what's the price it'll take to get him?

Again, I'd imagine at least one of Donovan, Nootbaar, or Gorman. It sounds like lately, teams seem to be most interested in Gorman, which makes sense with his incredible power. If it only takes one of those guys, specifically Donovan or Gorman, and then some other prospects or less valuable big leaguers, I could see St. Louis being interested.

Cease still has multiple years of club control remaining, so he won't cost nearly as much in salary as the guys on the open market will, and at his best, he's arguably the best pitcher of the bunch as well.

I don't think Cease to the Cardinals is a pipedream at all. I do believe Chicago and St. Louis will have real conversations, and I could see a deal getting done. But if I had to bet Cease vs. multiple names that are higher on this list, I'd go with the field here. But don't get me wrong, as long as the package isn't crazy, I'd be a big fan of bringing Cease to the Cardinals.

6. Yuki Matsui

Huh? Who is Yuki Matsui? Well, I thought the same thing recently, but after being linked to the Cardinals by Derrick Goold, I see why they have taken an interest in him.

Matsui is a top-end reliever in the JPPL, who has posted a 1.63 ERA with 39 saves in 2023. He's the youngest reliever in the league's history to hit 200 saves and has the stuff that should translate to the big leagues.

His fastball hits 96 MPH but typically sits between 92-94 MPH. He's a lefty reliever though, and his splitter and slider are the pitches that he tends to overpower hitters with. He also has a curveball, giving him a well-rounded four-pitch arsenal.

While the majority of the attention will be on the Cardinals' pursuit of starting pitching, they'll also be looking for ways to improve their bullpen. Even with a rotation overhaul, they need a few more arms in that bullpen to help shorten and close out games. Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, and John King had strong campaigns for St. Louis, and Giovanny Gallegos should be a bounce-back candidate, but they need more in that bullpen if they want to be confident in it.

Matsui would give them a huge boost in that department and is a lefty who can go out against righties as well. It's unclear what kind of deal he's looking at, but I can't imagine it's anything crazy with him being a reliever and not having any MLB track record.

One thing that Cardinals' fans should keep in mind is their recent investments in the scouting of the Japanese market. They've invested heavily in that department in recent years, and are probably one of the strongest positioned organizations when it comes to their intel and relationships with both clubs and teams there. While there's only one other Japanese pitcher on this list, I think there's a good chance they land one of the guys coming over this offseason, I'm just unclear on who it would be. Matsui would be a very interesting addition, though.

5. Jordan Montgomery

It kind of feels weird to think about bringing back a member of the rotation from 2023 as an upgrade, but in all honesty, Jordan Montgomery would be a huge get as the second or third starter in this rotation.

Montgomery was pitching extremely well for St. Louis before being traded, and since arriving in Texas, he's posted a 2.79 ERA and already balled out in his first postseason game against the Rays. He's proving himself to be a big-game pitcher to all of the would-be suitors this offseason.

John Mozeliak has not closed the door on a reunion with Montgomery, and although I think they will prioritize other names, there are definitely scenarios where Montgomery is one of their guys. He's likely earning himself a long-term in the $25 million a year range, so he will not come cheap, but St. Louis also gets the advantage of familiarity, which may be appealing to them. Bringing in so many new pitchers may create some challenges for the coaching staff and catchers when it comes to building chemistry, so Montgomery would give them a leg up in that regard.

It would be a big miss from the front office if Montgomery was the best addition they make, and I think they know that as well. But getting a guy who can eat innings and do it at a high level is something this rotation needs badly, and Montgomery fits that bill.

4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Outside of Shohei Ohtani, Japanese sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto may be the best free agent available this offseason, and the Cardinals are uniquely positioned to get him.

In 2023, Yamamoto is 17-6 with a 1.16 ERA while striking out 176 batters in 171 innings. It's no wonder why teams are so excited about him, as he could instantly be one of the best pitchers in all of baseball if things translate like teams hope it will.

Remember how I talked about the Cardinals' investment in the Japanese market and building relationships over there? Well, last year they hired a new scout for that area, someone who knows the Japanese market well, has built relationships with various players and clubs, and one of the strongest relationships he has is with Yamamoto's team, the Orix Buffaloes. He also has a track record of getting deals done with these Japanese players, which will be a huge help for St. Louis in this pursuit.

The Cardinals are one of many teams who have been scouting Yamamoto, and they will have to outbid teams like the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers. That may be a tall task, but at the end of the day, it's something they must be willing to do if they are serious about transforming this rotation.

The reason I put him at number four is that I think there is another "top tier" starter, they would be more likely to sign, which would rule them out of the Yamamoto market in all likelihood. But with no draft pick attached to Yamamoto, that could make him the more likely signing as things go along, or they could be willing to sign one of the top guys with a qualifying offer attached (Nola or Snell) and Yamamoto as their other target.

2. Aaron Nola

Most people have Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Aaron Nola in the top tier of the starting pitching market. If the Cardinals are really serious about getting one of those guys, and I believe they are, Nola seems like the clear favorite to me out of that trio.

Yamamoto may be the most exciting of the three, but as I talked earlier, the unknown with him and the price that will come with it may be too much for St. Louis, especially if they can pivot to Nola. Snell is coming off a better season, but Nola really seems to fit the profile of what the Cardinals want in a starter.

Nola is a workhorse who often finds himself to be one of the most productive pitchers in baseball as well. While the Cardinals should definitely consider some "five or six and dive" type guys who have great stuff, someone like Nola to top their rotation would be a huge upgrade for them.

He's probably never going to win an ERA title or come all that close to doing so, but Nola is a gamer, able to go deep into ballgames and perform in some of the biggest moments. Nola struggled in his two starts in the NLCS and World Series last year but in his three other postseason starts, he did not allow a run in 19.2 innings of work.

I have my concerns with Nola. It's unclear what kind of deal he is going to get, but if it's over $30 million a year on a long-term deal, I'm not sure it's worth the risk. He is coming off a 4.46 ERA season, but depending on how he finishes this postseason, that may not matter as much to people.

For his career, he's had three seasons with an ERA north of 4.00, and just one under 3.00 back in 2018. He did finish fourth in Cy Young voting in 2022, and for good reason. While his strikeouts per nine dipped to 9.4 in 2023, he's still a guy who can get outs at a high level, and if he cuts down the home run ball a bit, that'll help a ton.

There's only one pitcher I think St. Louis is more likely to sign than Nola, but I do think there is a strong possibility they sign Nola and the number one guy on this list. Nola and the last name on this list just feel like Cardinals, and the amount of links to them at this point shows that the Cardinals feel the same way.

1. Sonny Gray

As the self-proclaimed leader of the Sonny Gray hype train, it's music to my ears to hear that the Cardinals are very interested in him. Goold said in his recent chat that the Cardinals' believe they can make a compelling offer to Gray, which aligns with what Gray has been saying himself

At the All-Star game this year, Gray talked about wanting to live closer to home, Nashville, which St. Louis is one of the closest MLB cities to there, as well as seeking something short-term, as he likely will not be playing baseball past his next contract.

Gray will likely finish second in AL Cy Young voting this year, posting a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings for Minnesota this year. He just shut out the Blue Jays in the series clinching game over 5 innings of work and has the ability to go toe to toe with any pitcher in today's game.

I'll have plenty more to say about Gray as the weeks go on, but if the Cardinals grab one of those top-tier guys, and make Gray their number-two starter, this rotation will be in great shape for 2024. Gray will likely want a deal between two and four years at somewhere between $20 million and $25 million a year. He may end up being one of the best values at the top of the pitching market.

While I do think Gray should not be their best addition this offseason, he has sneakily been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the course of his career and can be a stabilizing force for the Cardinals' rotation for the next few seasons.