Ranking the 5 starting pitchers the Cardinals could sign as Sonny Gray insurance

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The St. Louis Cardinals needed a second front-line starting pitcher all offseason, and now that hole is even more glaring after the Sonny Gray hamstring scare.

It was just announced today that Gray has a mild hamstring strain, and his status for Opening Day is now in question. It's unclear if this injury will linger into the season, but at the very least, it goes to show just how weak this rotation becomes when Gray is not a part of that mix. Without him, the Cardinals are left with some combination of Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Steven Matz, and one of Zack Thompson or Matthew Liberatore as their five-man group.

Aside from that alone being a major issue, even with Gray being healthy, we've talked at length about the need for a second front-line starter in this rotation if the Cardinals want to compete in October. While the current rotation with a healthy Gray should be good enough to get them back into the postseason mix, it won't be enough to win meaningful games in October.

If the Cardinals decide they need to add another starter to their mix before Opening Day, there are still plenty of options available. I decided to rank the five guys I think they may try to pursue, but instead of ranking them by likelihood, I ranked them by what the Cardinals actually need. I did decide to break them into three tiers though, as some of these pitchers they could pursue I don't actually believe would be the kind of pitcher they need.

Tier 3: The starters who feel like realistic signings but don't actually solve the problem.

#5 - Rich Hill

Honestly, this feels like a very Cardinals move, and not in a good kind of way. Rich Hill turns 44 years old on March 11th and is looking to play in his 20th big league season in 2024. While Hill experienced a career revival during his age 36-31 seasons, he's been back to being a number five starter at best the last two seasons.

In 2023, Hill appeared in 32 games (making 27 starts) while posting a 5.41 ERA in 146.1 innings of work. He was better with the Pirates to begin the year (4.76 ERA in 119 innings) but the wheels fell completely off with the Padres (8,23 ERA). While I could see the Cardinals making such a move, it would be a mistake.

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Tier 2: Still doesn't solve the problem but could make for an upgrade over Lynn/Gibson

#4 - Jake Odorizzi

If the Cardinals do decide to add another arm to the rotation, the player that seems the most likely to me would be right-hander Jake Odorizzi.

Odorizzi is someone the Cardinals have had interest in for a number of years now, dating all the way back to when he was a free agent during the 2020-2021 offseason. They also discussed trading for Odorizzi at the 2022 trade deadline but ended up making deals for Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana instead.

Originally from Breese, Illinois (under an hour away from St. Louis), Odorizzi has a career 3.99 ERA in 241 games but did not throw during the 2023 season after undergoing shoulder surgery last April while with the Texas Rangers. Odorizzi was an All-Star in 2019 with the Minnesota Twins and posted a 4.40 ERA during the 2022 season. He was really solid with the Astors before being traded to the Braves, posting a 3.75 ERA during the first half of the season.

Odorizzi, when healthy, has proven to be a starter who would be an upgrade over the production that Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson may provide in 2024. While he's not going to eat a ton of innings, he would provide a better output in the innings he does throw.\

The goal here is not just to have incremental improvement to the back-end of the rotation though, it's to provide insurance for the rotation if Gray misses time, and to have a second guy capable of starting a postseason game in they make it to October. Odorizzi is a fine pitcher, but he would not fit the bill of what St. Louis really needs.

#3 - Michael Lorenzen

Perhaps the second most exciting two-way player who hit the free agent market this offseason, Cardinals fans should be familiar with Michael Lorenzen from his days with the Cincinnati Reds.

The Cardinals would not be bringing in Lorenzen for his bat by any means, but he has proven to be a well-above-average starter when he's right, as recently as 2023 when he earned an All-Star nod with the Detroit Tigers.

In 18 starts with the Tigers last year, Lorenzen posted a 3.58 ERA in 105.2 innings of work, making good on the promise that the Reds saw in him for many years and pitching like a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

After being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies, things looked incredible for Lorenzen after he threw a no-hitter in his second start with the team. Things instead trended down for Lorenzen, as he posted a 5.51 ERA in his 11 games with Philadephia and was relegated to the bullpen by the end of the regular season.

At his best, Lorenzen is very similar to Odorizzi, someone who is better than the Cardinals' current back-end of the rotation options but not a significant upgrade to this staff. I would not trust Lorenzen to start a playoff game for St. Louis in 2024, but he would help them get through the grind of the regular season.

I'm not sure how realistic this is though. Even though he does not have a job yet, I'm sure Lorenzen is looking for an opportunity to cement himself into a rotation, and there would be no guarentee of that with St. Louis. The Cardinals would also be better served going after a more significant arm.

Tier 1: The guys that can pair with Sonny Gray at the top of the rotation

#2 - Blake Snell

Let's be honest, this is the part of the list where Cardinals fans can agree the club needs to shop in order to improve this rotation. The market on Blake Snell has been extremely cold this offseason, giving the Cardinals the perfect opportunity to get a mulligan for passing on him before and bringing Snell into the mix now.

Snell, the reigning Cy Young Award winner in the National League, posted a 2.25 ERA in 180 innings for the Padres in 2023 and boasts an 11.7 SO/9, a much-needed breath of fresh air for this rotation. The Cardinals need to keep adding swing-and-miss to this staff, and there are few better at that in today's game than Snell.

I talked with Katie Woo, the Cardinals beat writer for The Athletic, about Snell on this week's episode of the Noot News Podcast, and she downplayed the Cardinals' interest in Snell, stating they were not interested very early on due to his walk rate. While our conversation happened before Gray's injury, it is worth hearing her thoughts on their interest level in the video embedded below.

Aside from the walk rate, there are a number of other concerns around Snell. First is the contract he wants. Snell has already balked at a six-year, $150 million from the Yankees this offseason and has been seeking a deal north of $200 million. If Snell is willing to take a shorter-term deal with opt-outs, that would help the Cardinals' interest in my opinion.

Aside from that though, Snell has been pretty volatile throughout his career. Outside of his two Cy Young-winning seasons, he's had ERAs ranging from 3.24-4.29, which is not bad by any means, but isn't worth a mega contract, especially when he typically only throws about 130 innings a year. The Cardinals would also have to forfeit another draft selection if they signed Snell, having already done so when they signed Gray. Lastly, there needs to be mutual interest here, and it's unclear if Snell would want to pitch for St. Louis.

All of that being said, the Cardinals should still be calling Scott Boras about Blake Snell at this very moment, and if they cannot work out a deal for his other client, they should be doing their very best to get Snell in a Cardinal uniform.

#1 - Jordan Montgomery

Hey, the Cardinals sure love reunions, right? Well, I think fans would be a lot more excited about a Jordan Montgomery reunion than they were about names like Lance Lynn and Matt Carpenter earlier this offseason.

Another Scott Boras client, Montgomery remains on the market with Snell and may also be open to a shorter term deal. There's been a lot of smoke in recent weeks about signing with the Boston Red Sox, but the Cardinals should do whatever it takes to swoop in and bring Montgomery back to St. Louis.

Montgomery was great for the Cardinals in 2023, posting a 3.42 ERA in 21 starts before being dealt to the Texas Rangers at the trade deadline for Thomas Saggese, Tekoah Roby, and John King. Montgomery continued his strong season by posting a 2.79 ERA in 11 regular season starts for Texas and helping lead them to a World Series title in the postseason.

Montgomery already knows this Cardinals team, making it an easier adjustment than going to a new club this offseason. Signing him would also allow the Cardinals to hold onto that draft pick since he was dealt midseason.

We've seen players be dealt at deadlines before and return to their former clubs the following offseason, but to this point, it's sounded like there is not a ton of interest from Montgomery in returning to the Cardinals. If John Mozeliak makes an aggressive offer though, I have a feeling that could change Montgomery's mind with how the market has played out.

If the Cardinals are serious about winning in 2024, going out and signing Jordan Montgomery would be the best way to prove that, and is the move they need to make.

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