Ranking the 4 remaining International pitching options for the Cardinals

The foreign free agent market has been extremely strong in 2023. Yoshinobu Yamamoto just signed the richest contract ever given to a starting pitcher at 12 years, $325 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Korean outfield Jung-Hoo Lee signed for 6 years, $113 million with the San Francisco Giants. Neither have any Major League experience, so these NL West rivals are taking a sizable risk in handing out mega deals to players who are yet unproven in American baseball.

However, the success rate of International players in Major League Baseball is higher than it ever has been. Kodai Senga, Ha-Seong Kim, Masataka Yoshida, and of course, Shohei Ohtani are all examples of great MLB players from overseas. When looking at Japan and Korea, teams need to be selective, but also realize how great players from those leagues can be even without Major League experience.

The Cardinals expressed interest in many of the International free agents at the start of the offseason. However, they missed on Yamamoto as his asking price became too high, and Yuki Matsui signed in San Diego after expressing interest in and meeting with the Cardinals. Fortunately, there's plenty of offseason to go and a few solid options for the Cardinals from both NPB and the KBO. Here are the four remaining pitching options ranked.

#4 - Naoyuki Uwasawa (NPB, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters)

I'll keep it short with Uwasawa. He's not an option the Cardinals should look into at all. In 24 starts with the Fighters, he recorded a 2.96 ERA in 170 innings pitched. While the 2.96 number may look promising, Japan is amidst a dead-ball era in which pitchers have a sizable advantage over hitters and league-average ERA hovers around 3. Sure, he'll eat innings but the Cardinals already signed Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, two pitchers with much more certainty than Uwasawa. He'd be a good pitcher for a team to take a flyer on as their fifth starter or a depth-tier option, but the Cardinals do not need his services at all.

#3 - Shota Imanaga (NPB, Yokohama DeNA BayStars)

For much of the offseason, Shota Imanaga was viewed by many teams as a backup option for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Now that Yamamoto has signed at such a high pricepoint, teams are likely bidding more aggressively for Imanaga than they would have otherwise. Although the Cardinals showed great interest in Yamamoto at the start of free agency, they should not show the same interest in Imanaga.

There are a few clear warning signs with Imanaga that make me want the Cardinals to stay away from him. First, his ERA is not that much better than the league average. At 2.80, which is around an ERA+ of 110 in an inferior league, I'm not too excited about what Imanaga will bring to the Major Leagues. Moreover, his very impressive 10.6 K/9 was a dramatic spike from his career trends, leading me to believe he over-performed in a contract year.

Many are excited about Imanaga's impressive fastball, but in NPB, a league where high velocity isn't as commonplace as MLB, he won't stand out as much. His fastball will certainly be playable, but not of the same caliber as Shohei Ohtani or Roki Sasaki. While Miles Mikolas signed for 2 years, $15.5 million after posting better numbers than Imanaga at age 29, Imanaga is projected to receive a contract north of $80 million at age 30. That's just too big a risk for the Cardinals to take on a middling pitcher who might've hit his ceiling last season. There are so many other starters St. Louis can target that are cheaper than Imanaga with more proven ability in Major League Baseball.

#2 - Yariel Rodriguez (NPB, did not play in 2023)

Yariel Rodriguez is one of the most interesting pitchers on the market this offseason simply because there's not that much known about his ability. He was an electric reliever in 2022, winning Central League Setup Pitcher of the Year after posting a 1.15 ERA through 54.2 innings across 56 relief appearances, but he wants to enter MLB as a starting pitcher. If Rodriguez was seeking a role as a setup man, he'd be at the top of this list, but it seems like he will only sign with a team that offers him a starting job.

Rodriguez's experience as a starting pitcher is extremely limited. He made two starts for Cuba in the 2023 World Baseball Classic and that's pretty much it. In his first start against the Netherlands, he allowed just one earned run across 4 innings pitched on 3 hits and 1 walk. He also allowed just one run in Cuba's victory over Australia but was shakier as he only went 3.1 innings and walked 5 batters. Control has always been a bit of a problem for Rodriguez, but they were more manageable in a relief role.

Like former Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks, Rodriguez's biggest weapon is his 100+ mph fastball, and moving him into a starter role may deplete some of his powerful velocity. It's extremely uncertain how Rodriguez will fare as a starter in Major League Baseball. He faced two of the weaker teams in the World Baseball Classic in an extremely small sample size. Moreover, he sought MLB opportunities immediately following the tournament to no avail and did not pitch professionally at all in 2023.

As a high-leverage reliever, there's much more certainty with Rodriguez's performance, and there's no doubt in my mind that he would fit perfectly into the backend of the St. Louis bullpen. If the Cardinals could make a deal work as a relief pitcher, it would be a fantastic signing. But for now, Rodriguez remains unlikely as both a Cardinal and a reliever.