Ranking the 4 Cardinals' pieces that they should put on the table for young pitching
The Cardinals will have to give up value in order to get controllable starting pitching. Here is who they should use as trade bait
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Anyone can go on Baseball Trade Values and cook up a potential trade for any player. Just throw all the "fringe assets" or players you are frustrated with into the deal, and eventually, it'll add up to the value of another player.
Except, that is not at all how MLB trades work. And the St. Louis Cardinals are going to have to be willing to pony up in a trade for controllable starting pitching.
Recently, I placed many of the Cardinals' Major League talent and prospects into different "tiers" based on how I would value them long-term for the club. It's tempting to take a bunch of names that you and I do not think hold value to the Cardinals right now and think that they can add up to something of value somewhere else. Unfortunately, I don't see that working out for the Cardinals.
If the Cardinals are going to get the young arms they desperately need, it's going to hurt. It's going to make fans uncomfortable. It's going to make the front office uncomfortable. It's going to be a risk.
And that is okay. You don't become a championship contender without taking some risks.
In all reality, the Cardinals are actually in a position where they can afford to take risks due to their deep pool of position players. Even if they give up a few young bats, they'll still have many more to field a lineup on top of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras.
The Cardinals have to get this next deal right. They need to find the right starting pitcher for them. But they also need to be okay with the risk associated with such a deal.
I am going to rank the young position players that I think the Cardinals need to put on the negotiating table to get a deal done. I'm not going to rank them based on "who I would feel most comfortable with them giving up", I'm going to rank them based on a combination of who will bring back the most value and who the Cardinals should prioritize keeping.
Sure, there will be a few obvious (or maybe not so obvious) untouchables I identify, but overall, this list is meant to make you uncomfortable. If it didn't make you uncomfortable, then this list is not a realistic way to get an impact arm.
Here are how I would rank which assets the Cardinals should use to go out and getting starting pitching help
Untouchable: Jordan Walker
Mostly untouchable: Brendan Donovan and Masyn Winn
It felt weird putting Jordan Walker, Brendan Donovan. and Masyn Winn in the same class of "untouchable", so I have Donovan and Winn a few ticks below Walker in this exercise.
Let's get this out of the way - Jordan Walker is not getting traded. End of discussion. Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado are the three players who are truly untouchable. None of those three are getting traded.
Walker is a budding star and already belongs with some of the best with his performance at the plate. Once his defense comes along, he will be a perennial All-Star for the Cardinals. Sorry, I already said the discussion was over...let's move on.
Donovan and Winn feel like the two young position players that I see the Cardinals having the hardest time giving up. Donovan continues to prove that he is one of the most valuable players in this Cardinals team. His ability to come in every day and get on base, bring some pop to the plate as well, and play six different positions at an average to above-average level is irreplaceable. Just look at his ranks in the National League since 5/23.
Brendan Donovan NL ranks since 5/23:
— Cardinals Stats And Facts (@STL_Stats_Facts) July 6, 2023
.341 AVG: 2nd
.438 OBP: 2nd
167 wRC+: 2nd
1.82 WPA: 2nd
11.1 K%: 4th
.958 OPS: 8th
1.7 fWAR: 9th
No matter what direction this team goes, we keep our boy Donnie at all costs. pic.twitter.com/dC1J7vgSw9
So that's Donnie, what about Masyn Winn? The Cardinals' number one prospect looked incredible during Spring Training for St. Louis, and after starting off a bit slow in Memphis this year, he's been on fire as of late. Adam Akbani posted on Twitter that since 6/18, Winn is slashing .329/.385/.543 with a 128 wRC+. Winn is finally putting together some of the power potential he has while maintaining a great on-base ability. Put that ability with a rocket arm at shortstop and speed on the base paths, and you have a potential game-changer at shortstop.
Could I see the Cardinals potentially trading Donovan or Winn if it meant getting Dylan Cease or George Kirby? Depending on how much else they have to give up, I could see it. But outside of a truly blockbuster-type move, these guys are not on the move.
#4 - Lars Nootbaar
Regardless of what my opinion is, it is reported that Lars Nootbaar is on the table alongside Jordan Walker when seems are calling. I get why the Cardinals feel that way.
Nootbaar is a Statcast darling, a very good defensive outfielder, a left-handed bat with great on-base skills and more power than he has shown this year, and yes, he's an international superstar. It's hard to imagine giving up such a steady outfielder when your outfield has been in flux for years now.
Here is why I rank him *slightly* below Jordan Walker, Brendan Donovan, and Masyn Winn and don't quite have him as an "untouchable" player.
Nootbaar is awesome, but at some point, if the Cardinals really want to acquire the pitching they desperately need, they can't take almost everyone off of the tablet. I am not shopping Nootbaar, and yes I am holding onto him above most players, but if he's the missing link to a trade for a controllable starter who could help lead the Cardinals rotation for years to come, I'm not sure the Cardinals can afford to just say flat our no.
Obviously, it all depends on who we are talking about though. It has to be an arm with legit upside, not some middle-of-the-rotation arm. Luckily, even if the Cardinals hold tight to Walker, Winn, Donovan, and Nootbaar, I think they still have three position players who can get a deal done for the arms they need.
#3 - Dylan Carlson
I don't think many Cardinals fans would have a huge problem with them giving up Dylan Carlson to acquire a good starting pitcher with years of control. And therein lies the problem in ranking Carlson higher as a trade piece.
I like Carlson, and I go back and forth on him as a player. I still believe it's going to "click" for him at some point and he'll be a .280-.295 hitter with 15-20 HR power, doubles galore, and a good on-base percentage. But unless another team sees that in him and is willing to trade for him with the value of a guy who is that, I don't think he nets the Cardinals the kind of pitcher they need as the centerpiece of a deal.
In a really aggressive move, Carlson could be the second-best asset they give up, or he could be the best asset in a trade for a low-ceiling controllable starter, but I don't see how he gets them in the conversation for some of the best young arms around.
Carlson plays a great corner outfield defense and is a very capable center fielder as well. Those guys have value. The problem is, they don't have the value of a starting pitcher with control. It's easier to replace Dylan Carlson than it is to replace an impact starting pitcher with longevity.
In all honesty, I think Carlson will have more value staying with the Cardinals than being the headliner in a trade. I would rather St. Louis part with an asset that is going to hurt a little bit more to get a very good starting pitcher than give away Carlson for an okay option.
#2 - Tommy Edman
Remember, I ranked the players on this list by using a combination of how valuable I think they are in trades, and how much I am willing to part with them versus other players.
Depending on the team the Cardinals are talking to, Tommy Edman may be the "least" valuable out of Nootbaar, Walker, Winn, Gorman, and Donovan, but he's still a guy that I think can headline a deal for a young starter, unlike Dylan Carlson.
Edman is currently dealing with a wrist injury, which could put a huge damper on his value. Edman has had a down year for St. Louis, with an 88 OPS+ and not quite having the same defense up the middle as he has had in recent years. He has now added being a very good defensive center fielder to his repertoire, which should be appealing to teams.
Long-term, Edman is still around league average as a hitter, and his ability to play very good defense at shortstop, second base, or center field is rare to find in the game today. He's one season removed from finishing 13th in all of baseball in WAR. Edman also still had multiple years of club control.
You kind of know what Edman is, which is great, but he doesn't seem to have much more left in terms of ceiling. You can sell other players the Cardinals have as also having another few gears they can turn on, but Edman is more of a finished product.
My guess is he probably is more valuable to the Cardinals than he is in a deal, but I could also see some teams falling in love with him. Regardless, he is still a very valuable player and would be a great trade piece if the Cardinals so choose. Honestly, he'd be the guy I'd be most willing to part with in a deal, but the last guy on this list may be the one the Cardinals need to let go of to get that stud starter.
#1 - Nolan Gorman
Yeah, this list is really tough to make. Honestly, the idea of trading Nolan Gorman is kind of scary. He's the kind of guy who could go on to mash somewhere else, and you better hope your return for him works out.
I love Nolan Gorman. I would have zero issues with the Cardinals holding onto him. I'd much rather find a way to part with Dylan Carlson or Tommy Edman instead and still get that young arm with high upside. But I just don't know if that is really realistic for some of the top young arms. I think someone with the upside of Gorman changes that conversation.
Gorman is extremely valuable as a left-handed power bat with a good feel for the strike zone. His streakiness and strikeouts are scary, and he'll at best be a league-average defender at second base, but you take those concerns with a talent like Gorman.
Why would you give up Gorman if you're the Cardinals? Well again, I'm sure they'd prefer not to, and if they can get the deals done without him, great. Gorman fills the role of that left-handed power for St. Louis, but he's not a true middle-of-the-order bat right now, and he won't be unless he can really improve on the extended slumps he finds himself in.
Gorman is a very similar player to Kyle Schwarber, which is something the Cardinals have not had in a while. But if Nootbaar can bring some power from the left side, and bats like Goldschmidt, Arenado, Walker, and Contreras have it too, it's not as big of a loss then. Still hard to give up a bat with that much power.
Gorman is kind of the "goldilocks" player in this conversation, where he's not one of the most valuable Cardinals young assets (as I have Walker, Donovan, Winn, and Nootbaar ranked over him), but he also carries a lot more value than an Edman or Carlson, which is why he grabs this number one slot.
Walker is truly untradable. Trading Nootbaar really destabilizes your outfield. Donovan and Winn feel like the future of the Cardinals' middle infield. Edman and Carlson just don't have the same value as any of those guys.
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In an ideal world, I would use Edman and Carlson to get good controllable pitching so that you can keep Winn and Donovan for the middle infield, Nootbaar and Walker in the corner outfield spots, and Gorman as your DH. I just have a hard time believing that will get the Cardinals the starter they really need.
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