Ranking the 10 starting pitchers that the Cardinals should explore trading for

It's no secret that the St. Louis Cardinals will be looking to upgrade their rotation this offseason. While free agency should, and probably will be, where they make the majority of those upgrades, they'll likely look to swing a trade as well to bolster that group in 2024.

So many names have been linked to the Cardinals this winter, while others have been speculated. Some of the names we do know will be checking in on in the trade market include, but are not limited to, the Mariners' starters, Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, and the Marlins' pitching as well. Other names will likely rise to the surface as well here in the next month. I discussed these names with Sandy McMillan on the Noot News Podcast recently if you want an in-depth conversation on these trade targets and the free agent options as well.

I wanted to go ahead and rank the guys the Cardinals should be the most interested in trading for, and this ranking comes down to a variety of factors. One of the things I took most into consideration was the cost to acquire each pitcher in a trade. The Cardinals should do everything in their power to hold onto guys like Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, and Brendan Donovan this offseason, so routes where they can upgrade their staff without parting with those guys are preferred. It doesn't mean they shouldn't check in on guys who may cost that, but honestly, I have a hard time selling myself on the idea of acquiring any of the starters that are reportedly available if it takes one or more of those guys.

How the Cardinals address their rotation in free agency plays a huge role as well. If they fail to acquire two front-line starters in the free-agent market, then they will have to do so through a trade. If they do acquire two top-end pitchers through free agency, then their sites could be set on a number three or back-end-of-the-rotation type of starter in a trade instead.

Until we know what moves they will make in free agency, this list is a little difficult, but overall, this is how I think the Cardinals should prioritize the trade market this offseason.

10. Logan Gilbert

In a vacuum, Logan Gilbert is one of the best starters the Cardinals could acquire this offseason should the Mariners entertain trade offers. It's questionable that they even would, but if they did, conversations to acquire Gilbert would likely take a package centered around Lars Nootbaar or something including both Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan.

Part of the cost of Gilbert is the fact that he has so much club control left along with having the ceiling of developing into a true number two starter. Seattle is not going to give that up for cheap, nor should they.

Would he be an excellent addition to the staff? Of course. But I think there are plenty of guys in free agency or through the trade market that make more sense for St. Louis given the price point. The combination of team control and talent is awesome, but not worth the price when there are guys with a few years less of control left that have equal to or more talent and will cost a lot less on the trade market.

If Seattle's asking price comes down on Gilbert, that changes things. But for now, I'd avoid a deal that goes after Gilbert if I'm the Cardinals.

9. Bryce Miller

Another pitcher from Seattle, Bryce Miller had a productive rookie season in 2023, posting an 8-7 record with a 4.32 ERA in 25 starts. There is a lot to like when it comes to Miller, and the team control is super appealing long-term as well.

Miller does strike out a ton of guys (8.2 SO/9) but has room to grow in that area over time. Miller likely slots in as the Cardinals' number four or five starter next year, but does so by making less than $1 million in 2024 and giving them dependable starts throughout the year.

Miller would fill a need this year, but they would also be paying for his team control and long-term impact on the club. His low salary helps them focus their budget on top-end pitching and gives them another stable option beyond 2024 as well.

It's really unclear whether or not the Mariners will actually look to trade from their wealth of pitching for offense this winter, but if they do, Miller could take a package headlined by Tommy Edman or Alec Burleson, some combination of Dylan Carlson and Tyler O'Neill, or some other package that does not include Gorman, Donovan, or Nootbaar.

Miller isn't a flashy trade target, and there are a few others on this list who share that sentiment. The Cardinals have to acquire at least two starters this offseason who would be much better than what you would expect Miller to provide them, but Miller is an intriguing candidate to be that third kind of starter they acquire. He has the potential to, as soon as 2024, be a solid number three starter in a quality rotation, and would have long-term upside as well. His floor is back of the rotation, but doing so on the cheap.

I actually don't mind if the Cardinals prioritize some team control with that third starter, as they could always use the trade deadline to find that third "playoff rotation caliber" arm. They cannot go into the offseason with major questions at the top of the rotation, but letting guys like Miller, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Zack Thompson battle it out for those final three spots during the first half of the season would be okay if the top of the rotation is set.

8. Griffin Canning

A second-round pick during the 2017 MLB draft, Griffin Canning has been a solid Major League starter to begin his career and is coming off perhaps his most intriguing season yet.

His numbers will not jump off the page to anyone, going 7-8 with a 4.32 ERA in 127 innings of work for the Angels. Most of the media's attention was on the train wreck that the Angels were in the second half, but Canning actually came into his own in his final 53 innings of work.

His ERA dropped to 3.91 in the second half and saw a major uptick in strikeouts (69 SO in just 53 innings of work). This plays favorably with his advanced numbers, as he posted a 3.82 xFIP on the season as a whole.

Canning had a career-low walk rate (2.55 BB/9) while posting career highs in K/9 (9.85) and GB% (42.7%). At 27 years old, Canning still has the potential to lean in further on the things that are making him more successful on the mound and continue to become a quality pitcher in the Major Leagues.

I would argue Canning has a lower ceiling than Miller but is in the same mold when it comes to expectations for 2024. Become a strong back end of the rotation starter to really help stabilize this unit. With only two years of control, the cost to acquire Canning should be much lower than most guys on this list, with a swap of someone like Dylan Carlson, Tyler O'Neill, or Alec Burleson probably getting the deal done.

Again, it's not a flashy move, but if St. Louis spends big on the top of the rotation, Canning could help them fill out the rest while not giving up any significant assets.

7. Robbie Ray

After winning the American League Cy Young award in 2021, Robbie Ray signed a five-year, $115 million deal with the Seattle Mariners. He is set to make $23 million in 2024, with an opt-out following the season if he thinks he can make more than the two-year, $50 million he'd be owed in the final seasons of the deal.

There haven't been any reports yet that Ray would be available in a trade, but coming off a step back in 2022 and then Tommy John surgery in 2023, the Mariners may be interested in moving off his contract with all of the rotation options they have. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby all likely slot in ahead of Ray, and guys like Miller, Bryan Woo, and Emerson Hancock are strong rotation candidates as well. Three years, $73 million is a lot to pay your fourth-best starter on your roster.

If the Mariners were willing to eat a significant chunk of Ray's salary, they could perhaps get some interesting pieces in return. It's highly unlikely he will opt out after next season, but that opt-out does make for an interesting conversation in trade talks. Even if they were willing to eat a large chunk of Ray's salary, would a team want to give up a legit asset if Ray potentially walks the following year?

How much salary are we talking about here that Seattle could pay? Well, even if the Mariners were to eat $8 million a season of Ray's deal, that would set his AAV at a much more manageable number for the remainder of his deal.

(If the Mariners eat $8 million AAV per year)

2024: $15 million
2025: $17 million
2026: $17 million

That's about 35% of his contract, which is a good chunk, but probably enough incentive for the Mariners to free up an additional $15 million-$17 million for the next three seasons.

Why would this be appealing to the Cardinals? Well, Ray is a strikeout machine, hovering between 10.1 and 12.1 K/9 between 2017 and 2022. He has the upside of a solid number one starter or really good number two, and when things are right, he's at least good enough to be a contender's number three starter.

Getting that salary down a bit makes Ray very affordable for the upside he may have, while also not taking an arm and a leg in terms of trade capital to acquire either. It's unclear whether or not Seattle will move any starters this winter, but if so, I imagine Ray is one they'll take calls on, and the Cardinals should at least test the waters here.

6. Braxton Garrett

When fans and media talk about the Marlins' best arms, the conversation usually stops and ends with Eury Perez, Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, and Edward Cabrera, but what about lefty Braxton Garrett?

There is a legitimate argument that Garrett is their third or fourth most valuable arm at the moment. With Alcantara coming off a down year and now set to miss all of 2024 as well, his stock has dropped significantly. Perez is a future ace and isn't going anywhere, and Luzardo is set to be their number two starter for the next few seasons so there is no reason to deal him either. Garrett kind of flew under the radar in 2022 and 2023.

This year, Garrett threw 159.2 innings with a 3.66 ERA, coming off of a 2022 season where he posted a 3.58 ERA in 88 innings. He isn't a flashy starter, but he knows how to pitch, and his underlying metrics like FIP and xFIP indicate his success is real.

Garrett still has five years of club control remaining, which will inflate his value quite a bit in trades. That's honestly where I see this becoming a difficult sell to me, as I think Miami will want more in return than the Cardinals will be comfortable offering. When you have a dependable starter with a ton of control, you don't trade that away for an average bat. I'm guessing they'll want a Brendan Donovan or Nolan Gorman, but if the Cardinals can swing a deal centered around one of their assets that are a tier below those guys, it may be worth it.

Garrett could comfortably slot in as the Cardinals' number three starter for years to come, which would be a tremendous addition for them long-term. I think with how dire their need is to turn this around this season though, they should focus more on targeting guys with less control and more talent rather than paying for the extra years of control.

5. Edward Cabrera

Like Seattle, it's unknown whether or not the Marlins will actually trade a starter this offseason for bats. The recent loss of GM Kim Ng throws a wrench into how the Marlins will operate, so who really knows what they'll do?

If the Marlins want to upgrade their lineup, Cabrera may be the best piece to use to do so. They really need to keep Perez, Luzardo, and probably Garrett to make sure their rotation remains a strength, but they could use Cabrera's upside to get the bat they want.

In 2023, Cabrera struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings while walking almost 6 batters per nine as well, which led to a 4.24 ERA in 99.2 innings of work. He was excellent in 2022 though, posting a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts. Cabrera has top-of-the-rotation stuff, and if he can figure out how to keep the ball in the zone just a little bit more, that stuff can truly shine.

Honestly, feels like a potential trade package centered around some combination of Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson, and Ivan Herrera. I could see one of O'Neill or Carlson packaged with one of Burleson or Herrera being a really interesting trade for both sides.

Cabrera, unlike the earlier names on this list, seems to have the widest range of outcomes. He could just be a back-end guy with swing-and-miss stuff, or he could blossom into the guy that many have dreamed he would become. I'm not giving up one of my best young bats for him, but I'm willing to risk some of the valuable secondary pieces to roll the dice on Cabrera. I don't think Miami is going to want to spend to upgrade their lineup, so it makes me think they'll be open to swinging some kind of deal like this.

4. Bryan Woo

If I had to bet one starter that the Cardinals and Mariners may be most interested in finding a deal for this offseason, it would be Bryan Woo.

At 23 years old, Woo is primarily a fastball pitcher who has multiple heaters that he throws with devasting off-speed stuff as well. In 18 starts this year, he posted a 4.21 ERA after making the jump straight from Double-A. Woo's rookie year also featured a 9.6 K/9, and he should continue to increase his strikeout stuff as he grows into his stuff more.

Woo's ceiling is high, which makes him the kind of young arm a team like the Cardinals would dream about the future of, while also bringing much-needed swing-and-miss stuff to the rotation now. He also would be making the league minimum for the next two years, increasing their financial flexibility.

My question centers on what will the Mariners ask for in return. It's very possible they'll want Nolan Gorman or Brendan Donovan in return for Woo. Gorman is a hard no for me, and Donovan likely is as well. But I'd be willing to throw multiple assets in a deal to get this done. I wonder if Seattle would have interest in two of Burleson, Carlson, and O'Neill plus a prospect like Gordon Graceffo or Cooper Hjerpe. It's a lot of names from St. Louis, but I think it's well worth the risk at this point. Honestly, even a Tommy Edman and Thomas Saggese package could be an intriguing deal.

3. Dylan Cease

Here's the first real legit front-line starter on the list, and one that will require a significant package to bring to St. Louis. Dylan Cease's trade value is lower than a Logan Gilbert, so it shouldn't be as crazy high as you may think, but it still requires giving up some players that will hurt.

Any package for Cease likely begins with one of Gorman or Donovan. Gorman is still a no-deal for me in this scenario, but I think I'd have to be open to moving Donovan in a deal for Cease, especially if the Cardinals are only able to get one legit front-line guy in free agency. If they sign two, I'm not desperate for Cease. But if they only get one, then things will have to get uncomfortable.

On top of Donovon or Gorman, you're still looking at two other valuable pieces like Graceffo, Saggese, Herrera, Carlson, or Burleson to get the job done. Maybe the Cardinals could do a deal centered around a Tink Hence instead, but I'm not sure the White Sox would go for that, and I feel like the Cardinals will not want to part with their top pitching prospects. I love Hence as a prospect, but I'd rather part with him for pitching than give up Donovan or Gorman, especially with Tekoah Roby and other interesting arms in the system, and the fact you'd have Cease the next two years.

Cease still has two years of team control remaining, and while I am a bit worried about his down 2023 season, I do think he's still closer talent-wise to his second-place Cy Young finish from 2022 than what occurred this year.

Cease is a strikeout machine, he doesn't really give up home runs, and he's proven he can eat innings as well. There is a lot to like about Cease long-term, and the Cardinals could use the extra team control to work on an extension before he ever hits free agency.

2. Shane Bieber

The top two names on this list just make way too much sense to me for the position the Cardinals find themselves in this offseason. Shane Bieber is not an ace anymore. He's probably a low-end number-two starter for a World Series contender at best. He's projected to earn just $12.2 million next year, which would be excellent value for a number three starter in the Cardinals rotation.

Let's say the Cardinals go out and spend $25 million a year for Aaron Nola on a 6-8 year contract and about $22 million a year on Sonny Gray for 3-4 years, which is about $47 million in spending this offseason. Based on recent payroll projections, that fits with the amount of spending the Cardinals can do this offseason, and should leave them with a bit more cash to spend as well. They can also free up an additional $17.6 million by trading or non-tendering O'Neill, Hudson, Edman, and Barnes this offseason.

With just one year of control remaining, his recent decline in stuff, and his $12.2 million salary for 2024, I imagine the Guardians will want to get whatever value they can for him. I could easily see Edman alone getting the deal done, but honestly, even something centered around O'Neill, Carlson, or Burleson may be strong enough.

Nola, Gray, and Bieber would be an excellent trio to headline the rotation in 2024. The Cardinals spent about $55 million on Montgomery, Wainwright, Flaherty, and Mikolas in 2023, so I don't think $57 million for three guys, especially when one is coming off the books after 2024, is a crazy idea even by their standards. This kind of deal also allows the Cardinals to hold onto their best assets, which keeps the upside of their lineup intact as well.

The Guardians are coming off of a disappointing season, are saying farewell to long-time manager Terry Francona, and have a wealth of young pitching ready to take over their rotation. Now is the time to move Bieber, and he fits right into what St. Louis should be looking for this offseason.