Ranking the 10 most important St. Louis Cardinals players for the 2024 season

#9 - Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt's 2022 MVP season was absolutely historic, so some regression was expected in 2023, but nobody predicted how far Goldy's bat would fall. He was still very good by most metrics, but a drop in his OPS+ from 177 to 120 was not expected. 120 was the second-lowest OPS+ Goldschmidt recorded in a full season during his career, and many are concerned this regression is a sign of things to come for the 36-year-old entering the final year of his contract with St. Louis.

While a return to MVP-caliber numbers would be nice for Goldy, it's not as essential that the Cardinals get this production from Goldschmidt as they do from other hitters. Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker, and even Willson Contreras can man first base whenever Goldy needs a breather and the emergence of another young bat such as Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, or Lars Nootbaar could replace Goldy's offensive production in the heart of the Cardinals' order.

Don't get me wrong, Goldy producing at an above-average level is still extremely important to this team's success, but having one of the Cardinals' cornerstones this low on the list may be surprising to some. His presence as a future Hall of Famer and a veteran in the clubhouse is still much needed, but as Goldy continues to age, it just seems a bit unreasonable to expect him to put up the same numbers he has since his arrival in 2019.

An extension may come toward the end of the season, but Goldy's time in St. Louis may be nearing its end. If the Cardinals are indeed looking to move on from Goldschmidt at first base, they've already got plenty of internal options to fill the eventual void.

#8 - Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras was at the center of controversies surrounding the 2023 Cardinals' team as the scapegoat for many of the Cardinals' pitching concerns early in the season. So much so that he was removed from catching duties for a week or so before being reinstated as the primary catcher. As the heir to Yadier Molina, Contreras was extremely important to the Cardinals' success in 2023, and because it was mishandled to such an extent, the Cardinals collapsed.

However, with the emergence of Ivan Herrera and the addition of Yadier Molina to the staff, the weight is off Contreras this season as the Cardinals' primary catcher. Herrera's bat is too valuable to simply serve as a backup catcher, so instead he and Contreras will split time behind the dish and Contreras will serve as a DH when Herrera catches. He's still very important as one of the top bats in the Cardinals' lineup, but with Herrera tearing up the Caribbean league this winter, there should be less pressure on Contreras.

He struggled mightily in the first half, but due to bad luck and a lack of confidence instilled by the front office, many off-the-field factors inhibited Contreras' success on the field. Now that Molina can guide him defensively and he's more comfortable with the organization, I expect to see a revamped Contreras in 2024. He was one of the most valuable hitters in all of baseball throughout the second half of last season but it was too late for his performance to mean anything to the team's success.

Without as much turmoil surrounding his viability as a defensive catcher and pitch calling, and a backup with a far more powerful bat than the glove-first Andrew Knizner, I'm excited to watch Contreras reach his full potential.

#7 - Brendan Donovan

As someone who values two-way players for their roster flexibility and versatility, Brendan Donovan's ability to play 7 positions while hitting above league average is extremely valuable to me. He can't pitch, but he can give just about any Cardinals defender a break by covering their position for a game or two. None of his tools stand out as particularly flashy, but he found a new gear as a more aggressive hitter last season before being shut down due to his elbow injury.

He was one of the most impressive Cardinals' at Winter Warm-Up as many players expressed confidence in him as one of the clubhouse leaders, and he discussed the adjustments he made to become a more effective hitter last season. He's someone I think should hit at the top of the Cardinals' lineup in 2024 and also has the potential to win a batting title.

Donovan is a spark plug type player who can fill in for anyone going through a slump or needing a breather in the field. After seemingly robbing his teammate Tommy Edman of the inaugural utility player Gold Glove Award in 2022, Donovan has shown no signs of slowing down as the most versatile and one of the most productive players on the roster. It was a great decision by the front office not to part with him in exchange for a starting pitcher this offseason, and I believe Donovan will show us in 2024 just how important he is to the success of the team.

#6 - Nolan Gorman

The true left-handed power bat the Cardinals needed was in their system all along. Nolan Gorman took the much-needed next step forward in 2023 as one of the bright spots in the Cardinals' lineup. He clubbed 27 home runs, and he easily would've surpassed 30 had he not suffered a back injury that derailed his entire season.

Every World Series contender has a powerful left-handed bat in the heart of their lineup. The Dodgers have Ohtani and Freeman, and the Braves have Olson. The Rangers have Seager, the Astros have Alvarez, and the Yankees have Soto. It's not farfetched to include the Cardinals with Gorman in that prolific group.

As with many of the other names on this list, Gorman's health is of extreme importance to the Cardinals in 2024. Back injuries were a serious concern for him last season, and the Cardinals may have come close to trading him for those reasons. However, I believe Gorman will only continue to improve in 2024 and cement himself as one of the power-hitting second basemen in the league.

Ozzie Albies, Marcus Semien, and Jose Altuve aside, there are not many second basemen who can hit for as much power as Nolan Gorman can. It's possibly the single most valuable tool on the entire Cardinals' roster. His raw strength and ability to hit the ball over the fence will terrorize pitchers this season as the Cardinals lineup looks to take a huge step forward. If Gorman plays up to his potential, the Cardinals will have a successful year.

#5 - Lars Nootbaar

Outfield stability has been something the Cardinals have lacked for a long time. When Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson, and Tyler O'Neill led the Cardinals on a magical 17-game winning streak in 2021, it looked like the Cardinals would finally have that but again the depth fell apart. Now, Carlson is the only player left on the roster serving as a fourth outfielder and a new crop of players is rising to the challenge of filling the outfield churn.

Since coming up in 2021, Lars Nootbaar has been one of the most consistently productive outfielders and has earned himself a spot as the starting left fielder of the future. After an electrifying WBC performance earning him recognition worldwide as an International superstar, Nootbaar injured himself immediately hurting his thumb on Opening Day. Even with a flurry of injuries, Nootbaar managed to be the third most productive player on the team by bWAR last year.

Because of these injuries, however, Nootbaar didn't break out as much as many analytics experts expected him to last year, but he'll hopefully have a chance to play a full season in 2024. If Nootbaar can avoid the freak injuries that kept him off the field for a good chunk of 2023, he'll be able to keep his momentum going and truly develop into an All-Star caliber player.

He found himself batting between Goldschmidt and Arenado at times during the 2023 season and that was no accident. His sneaky power, elite plate discipline, and quality exit velocity numbers all provide immense value to the Cardinals. A fully healthy season of Lars Nootbaar will be extremely important to keep the outfield consistent and the Cardinals' lineup at the top of the league.

#4 - Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker is perhaps the player I'm most excited to watch in 2024. His breakout in 2023 went largely under the radar because of the Cardinals' abysmal season and also his extremely poor defense in the outfield. However, after adjusting to a new position on the fly, Walker has worked hard with Jose Oquendo this offseason to improve as a defender. Like Nolan Gorman in 2023, I expect to see Walker post league-average numbers in right field in 2024. His athleticism is simply too special not to eventually figure it out.

Moreover, Walker has spent the offseason adding muscle to increase his exit velocity, while also working to raise his launch angle and hit more fly balls. If he succeeds, he could instantly become one of the premier young sluggers in all of baseball as he truly reaches his potential as a former top prospect. Many projection systems have Walker as the best hitter on the Cardinals in 2024 and that's no discredit to his teammates.

He spent much of 2023 figuring out Major League Baseball while learning a new position and one of the worst Cardinals seasons of all time. That experience should propel him to become an even better player in 2024. If he puts all the pieces together, which I certainly expect him to do, he could rise quickly to the heart of the Cardinals' order and become one of the best players in the league. Walker's offseason improvements and adjustments will be critical in the Cardinals lineup taking a leap forward and becoming one of the most powerful units in all of baseball.

#3 - Tommy Edman

While Edman might be one of the Cardinals players fans view as "on the trade block," I think he's one of the most important players to the success of this team, at least in the early part of the season. Edman's health has been in question much of the offseason but it's critical that he's ready to go to open 2024. Should Masyn Winn struggle as he did last season, Edman is the team's insurance at shortstop. His offense which is around league average will sustain the Cardinals in the 9-spot while providing Platinum Glove-caliber defense at multiple positions.

Moreover, Edman is currently the Cardinals' Opening Day starter in center field. After being shifted to center due to injuries last season, the Cardinal found a surprise with Edman's glove. He's one of the most valuable defensive center fielders in all of baseball due to his speed and range. Sure, Victor Scott II will take over as a true 80-grade defender once he's ready, but that's a big if.

If Scott has an electric Spring, he could win the spot and break camp with the team, but I see no reason to rush his development. It makes more sense to let Scott develop in Triple-A to start the season as his bat hasn't developed nearly as much as Jordan Walker, the only prospect in recent memory that the Cardinals jump straight to MLB action. Moreover, if Scott is called up and is slow to start, Edman will serve as insurance in one of the most premium positions as well.

While he can't play as many positions as Donovan, Edman plays three premium defensive positions at an elite level and will accrue defensive WAR at an elite pace when right. Two of those positions, shortstop, and center field, are the positions that the Cardinals have the least depth at. Given the Cardinals' defensive struggles last season, having Edman healthy and effective is much more important than having him as a trade piece.

#2 - Nolan Arenado

Like Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado just wasn't himself in 2023. He regressed from a 151 OPS+ to a 109 last season. Due to injury concerns and frustrations with the team's performance, Arenado was only able to perform well for flashes in 2023. It was good enough to lead to an 8th consecutive All-Star selection, but his numbers fell off immediately after the break. What's more concerning is that Arenado's defensive numbers dropped uncharacteristically. For stretches in the first half, he was below league average, and for the first time in his 11-year career, he failed to win the Gold Glove at third base.

Unlike first base, the Cardinals have very few quality options to fill in for Arenado at third base should he suffer another injury. Nolan Gorman is much more comfortable at second, and Jordan Walker is fully converted to an outfielder so that only leaves a combination of Donovan and Edman, neither of which can play the same premium defense Arenado does.

With Arenado's defense lacking in 2023, the Cardinals' defense was also subpar. Having a bounce back in 2024 is critical for both the lineup and the defense to return to their old ways. Simply put, Arenado is the most indispensable member of the Cardinals' lineup and they will need him at his best to contend for a championship this year.

Arenado is also a few years younger than Paul Goldschmidt, so the Cardinals are still hoping to get a few more prime years from him as the highest-paid player on the roster. A 109 OPS+, just 9% above league average, won't cut it in 2024 and he knows that more than anyone. He's as hungry as ever to rebound next year on both sides of the ball and knows a repeat of 2023 is just unacceptable.

#1 - Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray's arrival as the first true ace the Cardinals have had since 2019 Jack Flaherty is a much-needed addition for a staff that was awful in almost every way last season. However, because the Cardinals failed to pair Gray with another frontline starter this offseason, they're relying heavily upon him as a stopper. If Gray were to suffer an injury or regress, it would spell disaster for the Cardinals in 2024 and beyond.

In their past few postseason appearances, the Cardinals have trotted out Kwang Hyun Kim, Adam Wainwright, and Jose Quintana as their Game 1 starters. What did all three series have in common? The Cardinals were unceremoniously eliminated in the first round. With a true ace in Sonny Gray ready for the Postseason, the Cardinals just may be ready to contend in the playoffs. Gray showed this potential with the Twins leading them to their first postseason victory in a decade, so I'm optimistic he'll lead the Cardinals to similar fortunes in 2024. However, without him, this team is doomed to repeat 2023.

The rest of the rotation in Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Steven Matz just can't sustain itself without Gray. I've been extremely vocal in my desire for the Cardinals to add a sixth starting pitcher to pair with Sonny Gray at the head of the staff, but it doesn't look like that will happen until at least the Trade Deadline. Until then, Cardinals fans will have to hold their breath that Gray stays healthy and can recreate what made him so special as the 2nd-place AL Cy Young finisher last season.