Predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals 2023 season

Here are our predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals 2023 season

Opening Day for the 2023 season is upon us, and the St. Louis Cardinals enter this season as one of the most exciting and interesting teams in all of baseball.

Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina rode off into the sunset this offseason, while names like Jordan Walker and Willson Contreras are looking to make their stamp in the Cardinals' lore. Lars Nootbaar became an international superstar over the last month, and so many Cardinals went out and represented their countries in a big way at the World Baseball Classic.

Spring Training was exciting as well, as many Cardinals youngsters and fringe players got to shine in the absence of the club's superstars. Masyn Winn took Spring Training by storm alongside his friend Walker, and guys like Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Dylan Carlson had excellent camps.

Still, questions face this club, as many look at their rotation as an area of weakness this season. Steven Matz and Jordan Montgomery look sharp, while Miles Mikolas earned himself a two-year extension and Opening Day start. On the other side of the spectrum, Jack Flaherty has struggled throughout camp, and Adam Wainwright is starting the year on the injured list.

So, where exactly will these storylines take the Cardinals during the 2023 season? They are contenders for sure, but will their ceiling be capped by their pitching or young bats? Or will a team brimming with potential be able to take steps forward and compete with the best teams in baseball? Here are our staff's predictions for the Cardinals' 2023 season.

Josh Jacobs (@joshjacomlb on Twitter)

MVP: Nolan Arenado

After finishing third in voting last year, I believe Nolan Arenado is going to follow up his teammate Paul Goldschmidt by bringing home the National League Most Valuable Player. 

Arenado’s fire and competitive nature will make him the face of the St. Louis Cardinals, now that Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina have retired. Arenado embodies what it means to be a Cardinal, and this will lead to a career year for the third baseman who will hit cleanup for the best lineup in baseball. 

Cy Young: Starter acquired at the deadline

Okay, I’m cheating here. I don’t think the best starter the Cardinals will have in 2023 is currently on the roster. I believe the club will use its assets to acquire an ace in July, in hopes of propelling their World Series hopes.

I will say that I believe Steven Matz will impress a ton this year, and quickly go from an afterthought in many fans’ minds to a stabilizing force in the Cardinals’ rotation.

X-Factor: Jordan Walker

I think picking an X-Factor for this year is as hard as it’s ever been. Jack Flaherty or one of the other starters are good choices, Tyler O’Neill and Lars Nootbaar have a ton of potential for this club, Willson Contreras being himself transforms this lineup, and Nolan Gorman becoming a power bat would give this lineup a new dynamic.

But come on, it’s gotta be Jordan Walker.

Aside from the star potential that he has, and can dip into, almost immediately for this Cardinals’ team, I believe Walker breaking out this year gives the Cardinals a ton of flexibility. If Walker is a stud immediately, St. Louis can go into the deadline with full confidence in trading away guys like Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson, Juan Yepez, or even Nolan Gorman to acquire the arms they need.

Two-sentence team evaluation:

2023 will be marked as the beginning of a new era of St. Louis Cardinals baseball, powered by their MLB-best lineup and incoming young talent. The Cardinals will slug their way to the postseason, and a deep run is possible if they can settle questions with their pitching.

Bold prediction: Masyn Winn is the club’s starting shortstop by the end of the season

This is nothing against Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, or Nolan Gorman. This has everything to do with the talent that Masyn Winn has.

If the Cardinals go out and acquire a starter this deadline, I believe one of Carlson or Gorman will have to be in that deal. Should one of those players be traded, I think that opens up playing time for a guy like Winn. If Carlson is dealt, Gorman can settle in at DH, Edman slides over to second, and Donovan becomes the super utility guy, getting more starts in the outfield in Carlson’s absence. If Gorman is dealt, one of the outfielders can DH, and the same shifts happen with Donovan and Edman. 

Assuming injuries happen as well, there may be some other paths toward playing time that we cannot predict right now. But Winn’s talent is too undeniable to stay in Triple-A very long. Expect him to shoot up MLB prospect lists soon, and take over at shortstop in St. Louis as soon as the middle of the summer.

Russ Robinson (@frrobinson1957 on Twitter)

MVP: Nolan Arenado

It’s really just a matter of time until the 10-time Gold Glove and 5-time Silver Slugger is the NL MVP. Only Paul Goldschmdit’s outstanding 2022 kept him from winning last year. 

Arenado has it all…the glove, the bat, and the desire to win. 

Cy Young: Jack Flaherty

I said this last year when we predicted these for 2022, Flaherty is the only one on the staff with Cy Young potential. Waino is past those days, and Miles Mikolas just isn’t quite that type of pitcher. In 2018, his best season,  Mikolas won 18 games and still came in 6th in Cy Young voting.

X-Factor: The Rotation

Many think Jordan Walker will be the X-Factor, however, I still think it’s the rotation. If everything falls right, this will be a very good rotation. Flaherty needs to be back to his 2019 level, Mikelos to his 2018 level, Matz needs to be Matz, and Jordan Montgomery needs to be what we saw after the trade deadline.

Two-sentence team evaluation:

This is a team of if’s. If the rotation steps forward and is very good, if the outfield offensive production improves, if Goldy and Arenado have seasons close to 2022, and if Jordan Walker is the next coming of Albert Pujols, then this will be a World Series contender. 

Bold Prediction: Huge trade at the deadline

I expect the Cardinals to make a bold and even maybe, franchise-changing trade before the Trade Deadline. Maybe this is not a bold prediction,  but the Cardinals will use the Trade Deadline to make the improvement needed to put this team into World Series contention. There is enough talent in the minor league to add a needed quality arm or bat.

Henry Fitzgerald (@henryfitz16 on Twitter)

MVP: Nolan Arenado

Arenado has finished in the Top 8 of NL MVP voting in 6 of his 10 seasons in the Major Leagues. I think that Areando will build upon his strong 2022 season by winning his 11th consecutive Gold Glove and winning the NL MVP Award for the first time in his illustrious career. 

Cy Young: Miles Mikolas

Fresh off a 2yr/$40m contract extension, Mikolas is primed to be the heavy lifter of this Cardinals’ pitching staff. Mikolas was an All-Star last year and looked strong in Spring Training this year: striking out 8 batters across 12 innings pitched and allowing 0 earned runs. This prediction is barring a Shohei Ohtani addition in July. 

X-Factor: Tyler O’Neill 

What if 2021 Tyler O’Neill shows up this season? Where in this lineup do you bat him? What a tremendous problem that would be to have. A healthy and productive O’Neill lengthens the Cardinals' lineup significantly and is one way I see this team competing with the big spenders in the National League this year. 

Two-sentence team evaluation:

The Cardinals have an exceptional mix of MVP-level talent, tantalizing young players, and organizational depth. Starting pitching looms as a large and real question mark but on paper, this team should cruise through the once-again-soft NL Central. 

Bold Prediction: Nolan Gorman takes Brendan Donovan’s job by July 1st, hits 30+ home runs, and makes the All-Star Team

Gorman had a productive spring and I expect him to take a step forward this season. If he can develop more plate discipline specifically with elevated fastballs I think an All-Star appearance is in reach. Despite an up-and-down rookie year in 2022, Gorman showed flashes of being a middle-of-the-order masher with 35+ Home Run power. 

Ben Remis (@BenRemis on Twitter)

MVP: Nolan Arenado

After an offseason of outsiders questioning his decision not to opt out, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nolan Arenado has the best season of his career. It takes someone special to be picked ahead of the reigning MVP, but Nolan is one-of-a-kind.

Cy Young: Miles Mikolas

I considered Ryan Helsley here, as I think the anchor of a strong Cardinal bullpen deserves some recognition. However, after signing a new contract extension this month, Miles Mikolas is ready to lead the rotation. He’s not flashy and he won’t lead the league in strikeouts, but Mikolas could be one of the best “number twos” in all of baseball. I feel especially confident in Mikolas adjusting to the pitch clock, as he normally works with a quick pace. Will Miles compete for the NL Cy Young? Unlikely. But when healthy, Miles Mikolas is going to be a steady presence at the top of the rotation. It wouldn’t shock me if he wins 20 games.

X-Factor: Jack Flaherty

Lars Nootbaar is my breakout candidate, Dylan Carlson is my bounceback candidate, and we’ll be writing plenty this season about Jordan Walker. But on a team with questions on the mound, the X-Factor has to be Jack Flaherty. This is a make-or-break season for the former ace– he’s fully healthy, and the Cardinals are counting on a return to form. If Flaherty struggles, the Cardinals' rotation depth will be tested. But if he’s really back (and I believe he will be) Jack raises the ceiling of this team significantly. 

Two sentence evaluation:

Along with an underrated bullpen, this team has the deepest and potentially most explosive offense in all of baseball. It feels silly to already be looking ahead, but the expectation is a deep October run.

Bold prediction: Six all-stars, four gold gloves, at least two end-of-season awards

From a team perspective, I’d be ok without too many surprises. But individually? We all know St. Louis tends to get overlooked in the national media. However, this team just has too much talent. Starting with the all-star game, both Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar could earn surprise starts. Then by the end of the year, you have the reigning MVP in Goldschmidt defending his crown against Arenado (it feels like he deserves to win at least one during his career, right?) I have a feeling Willson Contreras is gunning for a Gold Glove, and who’s to say Oli Marmol can’t win Manager of the Year? Oh, and Jordan Walker might run away with the ROY. If a Cy Young candidate emerges, there could be a whole lot of hardware heading back to Busch Stadium.

Andrew Heckroth (@AHeckroth16 on Twitter)

MVP: Nolan Arenado

Arenado ranked second in bWAR among all position players behind Aaron Judge last season. Given his commitment to the Cardinals, you can bet he’ll be on a mission to get St. Louis to a championship. If he can hold off Ke’Bryan Hayes on the defensive side, expect another consecutive Gold Glove.

Cy Young: Miles Mikolas

Mikolas had an excellent bounce-back season after back-to-back injury-filled seasons. His rewards? A trip to the All-Star game, a spot on Team USA, and a brand new two-year, $40 million extension. Mikolas, the team leader in strikeouts with 153, was the only pitcher on the Cardinals roster who eclipsed the 200 innings limit. He won’t do anything flashy like Sandy Alcantara (sorry) or Spencer Strider, but he’s a diligent workhorse who, barring another injury, could give you another 190+ innings. 

X-Factor: The Starting Rotation

We know about the potency of the Cardinals' offense. We know that the bullpen has solid weapons to keep the opposition. The question I have about this team is whether this starting rotation can get deeper into games. Adam Wainwright was fairly solid last season, but he’s 41 years old with serious velocity concerns. Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz have promise, but they’ve struggled with injuries. I’m curious as to whether Jordan Montgomery’s 2nd half with the Cardinals is sustainable or if it was just a flash in the pan.

Two-sentence evaluation:

This Cardinals team is solid enough to repeat as National League Central champions with their offense and bullpen. The lack of a true, No.1 ace on the team might cost them a trip to a World Series.  

Bold prediction: Jordan Walker finished top-15 in MVP voting

Jordan Walker not only runs away with National League Rookie of the Year, but he places top-15 in the NL MVP voting. The potential this young man faces has media members such as Buster Olney taking notice.