Predicting who makes St. Louis Cardinals Opening Day as Spring Training begins

In an offseason in which the St. Louis Cardinals acquired 13 new players, one would assume that there are plenty of opportunities for competition on the roster. Quite the opposite is true in fact. Through these acquisitions, the team has gained clarity on which players will fill out the Cardinals' illustrious 26-man roster.

The vast majority of these spots are pre-determined and guaranteed. In fact, only the bullpen and final bench spot are truly up for grabs, and even those are virtually penciled in already. John Mozeliak added starting pitchers, cleared up logjams, and beefed up a bullpen that was desperate for some high-leverage assistance.

I will attempt (probably unsuccessfully) to predict the team's Opening Day 26-man roster for the 2024 season. Once again, most of these spots are set in stone, but those final few spots are where I'll add my personal opinion. Redbird Rants' own Josh Jacobs tackled this task back in late December, but a handful of additions have been made since then, so I'll take those into account.

Rotation (5) -- Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Steven Matz

Let's start with the most surefire position: the starting pitchers. After signing Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Sonny Gray all before the calendar was flipped to December, Mo completed the rotation very quickly this offseason.

Sonny Gray is the presumptive ace, and deservedly so. Behind him, we are likely to see some configuration of Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Steven Matz. In my opinion (and site editor Josh Jacobs's opinion), Steven Matz has the highest ceiling out of these four. Mikolas, Gibson, and Lynn are locks to pitch greater than 170 innings, and if Mikolas can return to his pre-2023 form, St. Louis's rotation may not be so bad after all.

Zach Thompson, Matthew Liberatore, Drew Rom, Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy, Sem Robberse, and Adam Kloffenstein will be ready to go in the minors, so the depth is clearly there in the rotation. This group doesn't have a very high ceiling, but their floor is quite stable, moreso than last year at least.

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Catchers (2) -- Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera

This position was also easy to fill out. With Andrew Knizner off the roster, the backup spot was granted to Ivan Herrera. Herrera, 23, has been putting on a show in the Caribbean series, and he is well deserving of a Major League roster spot. Contreras will take the reigns as the lead backstop for the Cardinals next year, though his time spent behind the plate will likely be capped around 110-120 games. His bat is too valuable to leave out of a lineup, so expect Contreras to be the designated hitter on occasion.

Pedro Pages is waiting in the wings should either one of Contreras or Herrera get injured, but if both stay healthy all year, this catching tandem could rank among the best in the National League let alone in all of Major League Baseball.

Infielders (6) -- Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, Masyn Winn, and Matt Carpenter

5 of the 6 players listed above are obvious. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are fixtures on the corners, and they remain in 2024. Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman will be fighting for second base starts, but the odd man out will happily take designated hitter at-bats. Masyn Winn has every opportunity to be the team's starting shortstop, but he isn't penned in. Underperformance in spring could detract from his starting spot.

If Winn starts in the minors, this list gets a bit more convoluted. The other challenging aspect of this exercise is who gets the 26th spot. Two months ago, the answer would've been Richie Palacios, but he was traded. One month ago, it was an open competition between Luken Baker, Jared Young, Buddy Kennedy, Jose Fermin, or even Thomas Saggese. Since then, however, Matt Carpenter has returned on a 1-year, $740,000 contract. Given his leadership, familiarity with the organization, and a guaranteed major league contract, it is likely Marp will get the final spot.

I wanted to go bold with the final roster spot and throw in someone like Cesar Prieto or Thomas Saggese, but Carpenter's guaranteed contract complicates things. He's not a very exciting 26th man, but it will be refreshing to see Carpenter back in St. Louis.

Bullpen (8) -- Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, JoJo Romero, Keynan Middleton, Andrew Kittredge, Andre Pallante, Zach Thompson, and Ryan Fernandez

Most of these reliever spots are guaranteed as a result of past performance and the capital--both player and financial--it took to get them. Ryan Helsley is going to be the team's resident closer for next year barring any injuries. He has been excellent in that role since he claimed it in 2022. Giovanny Gallegos and JoJo Romero will be the next batch of back-end relievers. Should Gallegos experience a return to his old ways, the Cardinals will have a pretty formidable back end of the bullpen, something they lacked last year.

Behind these three we see two guaranteed relievers in Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge. Both have experience in high-leverage situations, and both are virtually guaranteed spots as a result of what it took to acquire them (millions of dollars and a decent role-player, respectfully). The final three spots are where the roster will see the most competition during Spring Training.

John King, Matthew Liberatore, Riley O'Brien, and Nick Robertson are all viable options. King and Libby would be left-handed options, while O'Brien and Robertson have interesting stuff. My personal choices would be Andre Pallante, Zach Thompson, and Ryan Fernandez. Pallante has reverse splits for a right-handed pitcher, and Zach Thompson has shown that he can thrive as a reliever. Perhaps the front office wants to keep him in Memphis to remain stretched out, but I could see a world in which he is the swingman for St. Louis.

The final spot goes to Ryan Fernandez. In Katie Woo's piece on The Athletic (subscription required) on the 26-man roster, she mentions how he was taken in the Rule 5 Draft, so he has to start on the roster or else his rights return to the Boston Red Sox. The bullpen likely won't be shaken out until the final days of Spring Training, however.

The St. Louis Cardinals clearly have depth for next year. While not many positions are elite, they have a lot of warm, serviceable bodies that they can throw in and be confident. Assuming strong health from certain players, it is likely we see a return to the playoffs in 2024 for the Cardinals.