Predicting when each prospect acquired at the trade deadline could join the Cardinals

At this year's trade deadline, the Cardinals shipped out six players: Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks, Jack Flaherty, Paul DeJong, and Génesis Cabrera. In return, they acquired ten players: John King, Tekoah Roby, Thomas Saggese, Adam Kloffenstein, Sem Robberse, Drew Rom, Cesar Prieto, Zack Showalter, Matt Svanson, and Sammy Hernandez. The Cardinals made five deals with three different teams. It was, simply put, a busy deadline. This

The point of this article is not to evaluate the deadline. That has already been done by our very own Thomas Gauvain. Instead, this article will estimate when each player could get the call to the bigs, starting with those closest to the major league level.

LHP John King

John King is the only player currently in the majors. He debuted back in 2020, posting uninspiring numbers out of the Rangers' bullpen. In 2021 and 2022 however, King was a much better pitcher, carving out a substantial role. He hasn't been nearly as effective in 2023, though there is hope the Cardinals could enable him to return to form. King is likely to remain a reliever throughout his career but has the potential to emerge as a quality arm at some point. He will almost certainly receive a chance to contribute in 2024, considering the lack of quality left-handed relief options in the Cardinals' organization.

LHP Drew Rom

Rom was one of the few players acquired by the Cardinals to have already logged experience at the AAA level. The 23-year-old was drafted out of high school by Baltimore in the fourth round of the 2018 draft. Rom was promoted to Norfolk (Baltimore's AAA affiliate) late in the 2022 season. He has spent the entirety of 2023 in AAA. Rom will likely debut with Memphis. Though age, ability, and experience all work in Rom's favor, it is his status as a member of the 40-man roster that separates him from the rest of the acquisitions.

This year, he's struggled with his control. In just 86 innings, he has walked a whopping 46 batters. This comes after walking 47 batters in 120 innings last year when he displayed significantly better control. However, through these issues, Rom has still managed to generate whiffs routinely. This strikeout potential is what initially intrigued the Cardinals, and it may be what gives Rom the opportunity to contribute at some point this season. Outside of King, Rom easily has the best shot at appearing for the Cardinals in 2023. He's coming off a strong month of July with Norfolk, but the Cardinals will likely want to see him pitch well in Memphis before a potential call-up.

INF César Prieto

César Prieto was acquired by the Cardinals in the Jack Flaherty trade. Prieto is a 23-year-old infielder who primarily plays second and third, though evaluators believe he could play short if necessary. The Orioles signed Prieto out of Cuba during the 2021 international signing period. He had already played four seasons in the Cuban National Series, so he was 23 when he came stateside.

He struggled in AA in 2022, concerning for a player of his age. However, in 2023, he adjusted and improved significantly. He cut his strikeout rate in half, while also drawing more walks. Notably, Prieto's power did not suffer due to these tweaks. Now 24, he's in Memphis. Though he's off to a slow start there, the sample size (three games) is far too small to evaluate.

Prieto is an interesting case, as he may be MLB-ready now. He's a lefty with the ability to play multiple positions. He's showing elite plate discipline and almost never strikes out. Unfortunately, the depth chart is not Prieto's friend. The Cardinals are extremely deep in the infield. Gorman, Donovan, and Edman form a clear top three. The toolsy Masyn Winn is right behind them. But others like Palacios, Motter, and Fermín remain ahead of him for now, considering their status as members of the 40-man roster.

Prieto is more interesting than any of those three and probably has a better shot at establishing himself as a solid everyday player than any of them too. But right now, it is incredibly difficult to break through in St. Louis. I expect Prieto to jump those three over the offseason. His strong performance and defensive versatility help his case.

There are also other players in similar positions. Nick Dunn, though 26, has been phenomenal this season. Will the Cardinals extend him an opportunity? All of this muddies the water and makes it difficult to project when Prieto will reach the majors. He seems likely to take the field at some point in 2024, though it will likely be after the All-Star break.

INF Thomas Saggese

Saggese is in a similar position as Prieto. He's an advanced hitter with some defensive versatility. Unfortunately, he's in a system flushed with these types of players. Saggese has a better bat than Prieto and is also three years younger. Though he's in AA, Saggese stands the chance of being promoted this season, as he's dominating the level. With significant power emerging, Saggese is solidifying himself as an exciting prospect. He could easily become an everyday player at the big league level.

Saggese unfortunately suffers from the same circumstances as Prieto. As a younger player at a less advanced level, the effects are even more pronounced. Noah Mendlinger (22) may get a chance. Though old for the level, Chandler Redmond is mashing in 2023 and may prove enough to at least receive a promotion to AAA. Saggese will probably start in Memphis in 2024, and his play will determine how the Cardinals handle him. I expect he will see the field at some point in 2024, though he has slightly lower odds than Prieto.

RHP Sem Robberse

Robberse's development is full of interesting tidbits. He was stranded in Toronto throughout COVID and played professionally in Denmark as a teenager. He's one of the very few European players affiliated with MLB. Now, he's been traded to the Cardinals, acquired alongside Kloffenstein in the Hicks trade. He is the more highly touted of the two but is less experienced.

The Cardinals aggressively assigned him to AAA. Unfortunately, his first outing was a disaster. Robberse can bounce back, but it may be wise to do so at a lower level. He may someday throw four average to above-average offerings. At just 21, he has plenty of time and is already pitching in the highest levels of the minors. Hopefully, he will make meaningful improvements between now and the end of the season. Robberse could help in 2024, considering his age and development, but it is likely that if he debuts it will be near the end of the season. He could definitely be ready for the rotation by the beginning of 2025, though.

RHP Tekoah Roby

Roby is the most highly touted prospect the Cardinals received at the deadline. According to some outlets, including FanGraphs, Roby is one of baseball's top 100 prospects. Pipeline ranks him fourth in the Cardinals system. He has the potential to pitch at the front of a rotation. Outside of Tink Hence, he may be St. Louis' best pitching prospect. He was the centerpiece of the Montgomery/Stratton return. He was selected from the high school ranks in the third round of the 2020 draft.

Four of Roby's pitches have been graded as plus offerings, and there is room for further development. Roby has exhibited strong control and excellent strikeout stuff in the past. He improved in these areas this year with Texas' AA affiliate but had trouble preventing runs nonetheless. He had cut down significantly on home runs, a problem from the year before. Unfortunately for Roby, he suffered an injury earlier this year. After being acquired by the Cardinals, he was sent to Florida to be evaluated.

Little information has been released since that time. Whether he will pitch again in 2023 is up in the air. If he does, he is significantly more likely to reach AAA by sometime next season. If he stays on the sidelines through the end of the season, his development could be slowed. However, with a prospect like Roby, caution could be the best path forward. Either way, a debut in the middle of the 2025 season seems reasonable.

RHP Matt Svanson

Svanson was acquired from Toronto in the Paul DeJong trade. Like Robberse, the Cardinals promoted him aggressively. Also like Robberse, Svanson stumbled in his Cardinal debut. He allowed 3 runs in relief. Unlike Robberse, time is not on Svanson's side. He's 24 now, and only just made his first appearance at the AA level. Most pitchers do not continue to advance once they reach 25, and that is the age at which they will play the entirety of next season. He probably won't even begin the year in AAA. On the bright side, Svanson hasn't exactly stalled. He was drafted at 21, out of Lehigh. He was dominating High-A and can easily turn this season around. He has shown the potential to generate strikeouts too.

However, it is his status as a reliever that helps him the most. Relief pitchers are different than starters, or really any other kind of prospect. Even when they age, relievers can continue to advance within an organization. A strong season can return them to an organization's radar. Even if Svanson pitches poorly down the stretch, and even if he pitches poorly in 2024, he still stands a chance of making a major league roster in the future. Unfortunately for us, this development is difficult to forecast. He isn't major league ready now, but the Cardinals need relievers, and they need them badly. Perhaps if he reaches AAA next season, he'll make an appearance for the Cardinals in 2025.

RHP Zack Showalter

Zack Showalter, acquired in the Jack Flaherty trade, is a perfect example of why this list isn't a ranking of these players' ceilings or talent levels. Showalter may have one of the highest ceilings of anyone in this bunch. At just 19, he's already pitching in full-season ball; and he's pitching well. He has the potential to be a front-of-the-rotation starter and is already missing bats at an above-average rate. He has 41 strikeouts in just 30 innings, to go with a 2.37 ERA. Showalter is also limiting walks fairly well for a teenage pitcher. This is why he already ranks inside the Cardinals' top 30 prospects.

Showalter may have one of the best fastballs in the Cardinals' system. This gives him a very high floor. His other pitches aren't as far along, but they show early potential as well. If Showalter is unable to develop a changeup or a second breaking ball, he may become a reliever. If he goes this route, he is likely to move more quickly. The Cardinals have fast-tracked relievers with good fastballs. Perhaps he could be in St. Louis by 2026, maybe the end of 2025 if the Cardinals need bullpen help badly enough.

But Showalter has a high enough ceiling that the Cardinals will try to develop him as a starter. His fastball is that enticing. In this scenario, 2025 is out of the question and 2026 is unlikely. He could be a rotation member by 2027. Thus, even with his high ceiling and exciting talent, Showalter ranks near the bottom of this list. He does, however, possess the potential to leapfrog several names above him.

C Sammy Hernandez

Hernandez is the least known quantity the Cardinals received. He has some upside, he's a catcher with strong defensive grades. His bat has also shown some real potential, as he's already smacked a couple of homers in his short four-game stint with the Cardinals organization. His career with the Cardinals has begun with a bang. While exciting, the sample is far too small to determine much of anything.

Due to Hernandez's inexperience and age, it is difficult to determine when he could reach the majors. He is likely at least three to four years away from a major league debut, even if he develops quickly. It will be much easier to evaluate Hernandez if and when he moves to full-season ball. Until then, he remains mostly unknown, and at the bottom of this list.