Predicting the St. Louis Cardinals' 2025 starting rotation

Free Agents

The 2025 free-agent starting pitcher collection is a strong one. Last year's group was headlined by an injured Shohei Ohtani, two players from Japan in Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and a collection of aging veterans that included Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray.

The 2025 class has significantly more upside in it. Players like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Blake Snell (again), Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty, and Max Fried headline the free-agent pitcher group. The issue with free agency, however, is that the front office has already begun hinting that payroll will at least be frozen heading into next year, and there's a chance some cuts are even made. This limits the team's ability to add pitchers via free agency this upcoming offseason.

However, if the team is able to get creative with their financials, there are some solid mid-rotation arms that could fit in the Cardinals' budget. Fans could also get lucky and see one of those big-name starters come to St. Louis, but once again, don't get your hopes up. I think Jack Flaherty and Max Fried are two achievable candidates among the headliners, but those feel like long shots anyway.

One player who is achievable for the Cardinals is Sean Manaea. Manaea, 32, signed a two-year deal with the New York Mets this past offseason with a player option for the second year. Due to his success this year, it's been rumored that he'll exercise his opt-out and enter free agency. He has a 3.43 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and a 114 ERA+ in 157.1 innings (28 starts) this year. He was due for $13.5 million via his player option next year, so Manaea will be eyeing a multi-year contract worth at least $15 million annually.

Two other Mets, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana, are also free agents at season's end. Severino, 30, has a 10-6 record with a 3.84 ERA, 4.25 FIP, and a 102 ERA+ in 159.1 innings. He's not striking out batters, but he's also done a fine job at limiting hits and walks. Quintana, a former Cardinal himself, has thrown 152 innings with a 4.09 ERA and a 4.89 FIP. His 96 ERA+ makes him a below-average starting pitcher.

One final candidate who would be a dark horse for the Cardinals would be Michael Wacha. Wacha and the Cardinals are quite familiar with each other, and barring a contract restructuring with the Kansas City Royals, Wacha will decline his $16-million player option and enter free agency. Wacha, 33, has been excellent for the Royals with a 3.50 ERA and a 3.83 FIP in 144 innings. His 122 ERA+ is evidence of his dominance for most of the year.