Predicting the St. Louis Cardinals' 2025 starting rotation

Probable Candidates - Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz

Here is where we see the Cardinals cornering themselves with bad contracts. Neither Miles Mikolas nor Steven Matz have done anything these past two years to prove they're worthy of a spot in the 2025 rotation. Matz has been unable to be healthy since he signed with the Cardinals, and Mikolas has consistently taken the Cardinals out of contention in games in which he's started.

Throw in the fact that these two will make a combined $31 million next year, and you see how awful their contracts have become.

But the Cardinals are loyal to a fault. By virtue of them being veterans who are owed a boatload of cash, Matz and Mikolas will probably receive the final two rotation spots for next year. This, in theory, completes the exercise, but I have hope that the organization will be wise with both players. Steven Matz has thrived out of the bullpen these past two seasons, so using him as a long relief guy or someone who can mop up bad starts on occasion may be his best role next year. His finished 2023 with a 2.81 as a reliever, and he's already back in this role next year. He'll be a pricey reliever, but that's the result of distributing large contracts to players with an injury history.

Miles Mikolas, on the other hand, should probably be off the team this winter regardless of what it takes to move him. Mikolas, despite being in line to once again receive a full slate of starts this year, has been terrible. He has a 5.27 ERA in 153.2 innings pitched. Last year, Mikolas led the league in hits allowed and earned runs. He shouldn't be in the rotation, let alone on the team, in 2025.

Just like that, we've moved two potential starters out of the rotation. If neither of those moves happens, the rotation will be set with Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante, Steven Matz, and Miles Mikolas. That isn't a group that will lead a team to success. Therefore, Matz needs to be moved to the bullpen, and Mikolas should be removed from the team one way or another.

Those with an outside chance

I have a love-hate relationship with this group. On one side, you'll find more expensive veterans on expiring contracts. On the other, you'll see young guys with some true promise. Let's all hope the executives lean toward the latter group.

Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn both have team options for next year. Lynn's is worth $10 million, and Gibson is due for $12 million himself. Should the Cardinals decline these options, something they would be wise to do, they can consider it an even deal given the $15 million jump in Sonny Gray's salary next year. I fear the organization won't decline either.

Gibson has a 4.20 ERA and a 4.15 FIP in 154.1 innings, and Lynn has a 4.06 ERA and a 4.46 FIP in 106.1 innings. While these aren't bad numbers for pitchers in the bottom of a staff, the Cardinals can see similar or better production from their prospects for a fraction of their salaries.

Michael McGreevy is the most likely prospect to join the rotation next year. He made one spot start this year and threw seven innings while allowing just one run. At Triple-A Memphis this year, he has a 3.97 ERA and a 3.88 FIP in 145 innings. Strikeouts have never been his calling, but he's been excellent at getting groundballs and limiting damage. He would make a wonderful bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher next year.

Gordon Graceffo is another internal option. He, too, made his debut this year with the Cardinals, but the bulk of his season has also been with the Triple-A squad. He has a 4.91 ERA and a 4.87 FIP in 113.2 innings. Graceffo will be given a chance in spring to start in the majors next year, but he doesn't stand as great of a chance to hear his name called as McGreevy does.

The final internal candidate came into this season as someone who wouldn't even be considered for the Memphis rotation let alone the major league rotation in 2025. His name is Quinn Mathews. Mathews, 23, has been unhittable all year regardless of the level he's pitched at. He had a 1.47 ERA at Low-A Palm Beach, a 2.68 ERA at High-A Peoria, and a 2.41 ERA at Double-A Springfield before being called up to Memphis a couple of weeks ago. He's struggled in his two starts with Memphis so far, but the high-octane lefty has struck out hitters at a ridiculous rate across the minors. He would be an outside candidate to start the year in the rotation, but look for his name to be called once an injury arises in 2025.

Free Agents

The 2025 free-agent starting pitcher collection is a strong one. Last year's group was headlined by an injured Shohei Ohtani, two players from Japan in Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and a collection of aging veterans that included Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray.

The 2025 class has significantly more upside in it. Players like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Blake Snell (again), Corbin Burnes, Jack Flaherty, and Max Fried headline the free-agent pitcher group. The issue with free agency, however, is that the front office has already begun hinting that payroll will at least be frozen heading into next year, and there's a chance some cuts are even made. This limits the team's ability to add pitchers via free agency this upcoming offseason.

However, if the team is able to get creative with their financials, there are some solid mid-rotation arms that could fit in the Cardinals' budget. Fans could also get lucky and see one of those big-name starters come to St. Louis, but once again, don't get your hopes up. I think Jack Flaherty and Max Fried are two achievable candidates among the headliners, but those feel like long shots anyway.

One player who is achievable for the Cardinals is Sean Manaea. Manaea, 32, signed a two-year deal with the New York Mets this past offseason with a player option for the second year. Due to his success this year, it's been rumored that he'll exercise his opt-out and enter free agency. He has a 3.43 ERA, 3.84 FIP, and a 114 ERA+ in 157.1 innings (28 starts) this year. He was due for $13.5 million via his player option next year, so Manaea will be eyeing a multi-year contract worth at least $15 million annually.

Two other Mets, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana, are also free agents at season's end. Severino, 30, has a 10-6 record with a 3.84 ERA, 4.25 FIP, and a 102 ERA+ in 159.1 innings. He's not striking out batters, but he's also done a fine job at limiting hits and walks. Quintana, a former Cardinal himself, has thrown 152 innings with a 4.09 ERA and a 4.89 FIP. His 96 ERA+ makes him a below-average starting pitcher.

One final candidate who would be a dark horse for the Cardinals would be Michael Wacha. Wacha and the Cardinals are quite familiar with each other, and barring a contract restructuring with the Kansas City Royals, Wacha will decline his $16-million player option and enter free agency. Wacha, 33, has been excellent for the Royals with a 3.50 ERA and a 3.83 FIP in 144 innings. His 122 ERA+ is evidence of his dominance for most of the year.

Final Rotation Options

Option 1:
Sonny Gray
Erick Fedde
Andre Pallante
Steven Matz
Miles Mikolas

This isn't my personal choice for a rotation next year, but I could absolutely see the Cardinals rolling with it. Each of these players is under contract for next year, some more than others, and this would be an easy way for ownership and management to "save" money while also fielding a marginally competitive starting staff. The ceiling is quite low for this group, and the floor is shaky at best.

Option 2:
Sonny Gray
Erick Fedde
Andre Pallante
Kyle Gibson/Lance Lynn
Miles Mikolas

The same can be said of this group. It's expensive, it's not very strong, and it's restrictive. In this scenario, Steven Matz is in the bullpen, and one of Gibson or Lynn isn't re-signed (my preference would be Gibson staying with the team, but I'm just splitting hairs at this point). Don't expect this rotation to challenge others throughout the year.

Option 3:
Sonny Gray
Erick Fedde
Andre Pallante
Michael McGreevy/Gordon Graceffo/Quinn Mathews
Miles Mikolas

This rotation is younger and slightly more exciting! I'm assuming Gibson's and Lynn's options are declined, and Matz is moved to the bullpen here. Mikolas stays because no other team would take on his onerous contract. I'm envisioning one of those young guys separating himself during spring training and taking the final rotation spot here.

Option 4:
Sonny Gray
Erick Fedde
*Free agent* (Flaherty/Fried/Manaea/Wacha/Severino)
Andre Pallante
Michael McGreevy/Gordon Graceffo/Quinn Mathews

This is the most preferred rotation for next year. Sonny Gray will take the top spot once again, and the second slot depends on which free agent is acquired. Someone like Max Fried or Jack Flaherty will leapfrog Fedde while a guy like Wacha, Manaea, or Severino will slot in behind Fedde. Behind those three pitchers is Andre Pallante, and a rookie will bring up the rear. This rotation has the most potential for success next year.