Predicting the St. Louis Cardinals 2024 Opening Day Roster

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While the 2023 season is in full swing, it's never too early to think about what the 2024 roster may look like

Before the St. Louis Cardinals began the 2022 season, I wrote about how the club was ready to compete that season, but that their real championship window may be opening up in 2023 or 2024. As I sit here today, I feel even more confident in that take.

Not just because the Cardinals fizzled out in the Wild Card Series last year, but because of the way they have positioned this roster to grow and evolve between now and July 2024. For as fun as last year's team was, this season is showing why the Cardinals have been so hesitant to move on from their young core, and how they are now positioned to not only see improvements internally from those guys but can also now address their major needs when the right time comes.

Already this season, we have seen the emergence of Nolan Gorman as an All-Star level 2B/DH option with elite middle-of-the-order power. We got to see the debut of Jordan Walker, and he will be rejoining the roster to produce again in the near future. Lars Nootbaar has built off of the hype he got over the offseason and is one of the most promising young outfielders in baseball. Not to mention guys like Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, and Juan Yepez, let alone Masyn Winn who is knocking on the door.

On the pitching front, we've seen the return of Matthew Liberatore after a rocky 2022 sesaon, and he now looks ready to be a quality rotation arm for the club. While Miles Mikolas has reemerged as a very good number two starter, the real excitement is in their pipeline, with guys like Tink Hence, Cooper Hjepre, Gordon Graceffo, and Michael McGreevy all making their ways toward St. Louis. Again, that doesn't even include arms like Zach Thompson, Connor Thomas, Guillermo Zuniga, and Brycen Mautz.

While I don't think any of us would say they are a championship contender in their current state, it's not all that difficult to see how an aggressive trade deadline or offseason can set this team up to be a true contender in 2024.

While of course it's too early to tell what this team will look like come Opening Day in 2024, I want to predict what I think the Cardinals' roster will look like when that day comes. Even if the Cardinals do not go in this exact direction, I think it will give you a glimpse of why I am so optimistic about their chances over the next few years.

Catchers

(2) - Willson Contreras and Andrew Knizner

Back in Spring Training, I would have bet pretty heavily that 2023 would be Andrew Knizer's last season with the Cardinals. Since the beginning of May though, Knizner has played in 17 games and posted a 135 wRC+, which is the 7th highest among all catchers with at least 50 plate appearances this month. Knizner seems to have gained the respect of the coaching staff and clubhouse as well, as Willie McGee has dubbed Knizner the captain of the Cardinals.

As a backup catcher, a 91 wRC+ on the season as a whole, pretty good defense behind the plate, and that level of respect his hard to top. I think Knizner will retain his role for another year.

Willson Contreras somehow lost his starting job though for about a week this season, which I don't think anyone saw coming. Contreras has proven since that brief mess that he is the right man to replace Yadier Molina, and he will be behind the plate on Opening Day 2024. It will be interesting to see if he plays 110-125 games a year behind the plate, or if Knizner continues to eat into his opportunities.

Other potential options: Ivan Herrera

Infield

(5) - Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Nolan Arenado, Masyn Winn, Brendan Donovan

The rest of this list is where things get very difficult to predict, but at the end of the day, I had to land on something.

You'll probably notice Tommy Edman is not on this list. I know how valuable he is to the Cardinals. Edman is a terrific player and has elevated his game at the plate this year. But in this scenario, I landed on the Cardinals trading for a starting pitching to fill their ace void, and you have to give up value to get value. Should the Cardinals trade for a high-level starter, I would be very surprised if they pull it off without including one of Edman, Masyn Winn, or Brendan Donovan.

The Cardinals seem to be extremely high on Masyn Winn, and for good reason. He looks to be the club's starting shortstop in 2024, and could be up with the club at some point this season depending on trades and injuries. Winn would be an exciting addition to this team, both at the plate and in the field.

Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan will both likely see a lot of time at second base and other positions like they have this season. Gorman could feature at DH pretty often and third base when Nolan Arenado needs a day off, and Donovan will likely play all over the field.

There are three reasons I landed on the Cardinals keeping Gorman, Donovan, and Winn while trading Edman - upside, trade value, and cost control. Nolan Gorman and Masyn Winn have the two highest ceilings in my opinion, and I just don't see St. Louis dealing them. Edman I think carries a lot more value than Donovan in a trade, and Donovan is also a lot further away from free agency. Just feels like a Cardinals' way of thinking to me.

It is very possible though that the Cardinals keep all four and hope to upgrade their rotation through free agency, and I certainly wouldn't be opposed to that.

It goes without saying, but Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will be the superstars at the corners for the Cardinals once again. I do think it is likely we see a Goldschmidt extension this offseason.

You may be wondering where Paul DeJong is. At this rate, if he continues to as good as he has been this year, I see the Cardinals picking up his option and then using him in a trade this offseason.

Other potential options: Tommy Edman, Paul DeJong, Kramer Robertson, or a small free agent signing

Outfield

(6) - Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Mike Antico, Chandler Redmon

I think the Cardinals have shown us quite a bit this season about who they believe is in their long-term plans, and as of late, the future of this outfield is uncertain outside of Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar.

Walker and Nootbaar are true long-term pieces for the club, with Walker having superstar potential and Nootbaar showing he could be an All-Star type player as well. Walker likely locks down right field, and Nootbaar would play center field or left field depending on who they choose as their third outfielder.

The only reason I think Alec Burleson could be missing from this list would be if he was included in a trade package. Otherwise, I think the Cardinals really like what they have seen in Burleson's bat. After starting the season off well, Burleson cooled off a bit, but over his last 15 games, Burleson is slashing .263/.326/.395 and has done that in spotty playing time.

I don't think the Cardinals will get rid of Dylan Carlson. He has too high of a ceiling still as a player who can play very good defense at all three spots, mash lefties, and surely at some point, he'll get at least playable against right-handers. Worst case, he's a good fourth outfielder. I just don't think he carries enough trade value to cut bait with.

You'll notice that Tyler O'Neill and Juan Yepez are gone from this list. I think it's clear that the O'Neill era in St. Louis is coming to an end soon, even if you disagree with why. There's just too much friction between O'Neill and the Cardinals' leadership, and I bet he is traded by the deadline. I really like Yepez, and think he can be a productive bat if given consistent playing time, but the Cardinals continue to underutilize him, so I think he ends up being traded at some point, probably as a piece in a large deal for an ace.

If you don't recognize the names, Mike Antico and Chandler Redmond, they feel like very interesting backup options for the Cardinals next season. Both are currently in Double-A Springfield, but should really be in Memphis at this point. Chandler can play in the outfield, second base, and first base while slashing .250/.352/.603 with 16 HR and 42 RBI in just 43 games. He represents a bat who with power off the bench while also being a versitaile option for the Cardinals. Antico is slashing .262/.344/.476 with 7 HR, 30 RBI, and 13 SB while providing the Cardinals with another center field option.

Other potential options: Moises Gomez, Juan Yepez, Victor Scott II, Matt Koperniak

Starting rotation

(5) - Shane Bieber, Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, Gordon Graceffo

Here is my big prediction. For better or for worse, I think the Cardinals and the Guardians are destined to make a Shane Bieber trade, whether it is at this year's deadline or in the offseason.

The Guardians desperately need to add bats to their lineup, and Bieber is going to be a free agent after the 2024 season. While Bieber has continued to pitch like one of the best starters in baseball, his velocity has dipped a lot. Zack Meisel of The Athletic just covered how Bieber has reinvented himself as a starter to maintain his success (subscription required), but the underlying numbers are at least a bit concerning.

If the Cardinals want to maximize their championship window in 2024 and beyond, investing in a starter like Aaron Nola in free agency would make a lot of sense. They can keep guys like Tommy Edman, Juan Yepez, and some of their other valuable young talent (which is till take a lot more than Edman and Yepez), while upgrading their rotation.

Still, at this moment, it just feels too perfect for the Cardinals to go after a player who was once considered one of the best in the sport but now people are doubting if he can continue his success going forward (sounds a lot like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado before they were acquired). Bieber just turned 28, so he's got plenty of years ahead of him as well.

As for the rest of the rotation, Mikolas was extended for two more years on a very affordable deal, and looks like he is back to being a legit number-two starter. The rest of the rotation is a bit up for grabs. I do believe Steven Matz will end up being a bullpen arm for the club but is probably the next man up for the rotation in my scenario.

Matthew Liberatore should lock down a rotation spot going into next year and could be a nice number four type starter. Zack Thompson was sent down to Memphis to build up to being a starter in 2024, and with how great of a reliever he has been, I think that shows that St. Louis really thinks he could be a valuable starter.

The issue with Liberatore and Thompson though is I'm not sure if either guy can be relied on to be a true number three starter, which is not a slight against them, I just think it's not fair to expect that from them. That's why I have Gordon Graceffo making the rotation. While he has struggled this year, he has the highest upside out of the guys who are really close to St. Louis.

I think there is an outside chance a Tink Hence or Cooper Hjerpe could make the rotation, as they seem to have the highest upsides in the system pitching wise and should both be knocking on the door of an MLB debut come Spring Training. I think it's more likely they make their debuts later in 2024 though.

If the Cardinals can grab an ace before 2024, I'm not against them running with three young guys in the rotation. See what you have in your young talent, and if one or two struggle, you still have Matz and then guys like Hence, Hjerpe, Michael McGreevy, and more. If it's still an issue at the deadline, than the Cardinals can acquire some innings then.

Other potential options: Steven Matz, Michael McGreevy, Tink Hence, Cooper Hjerpe, Aaron Nola

Bullpen

(8) - Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Jordan Hicks, Genesis Cabrera, Steven Matz, Andre Pallante, Guillermo Zuniga, Wilking Rodriguez

Bullpens are very difficult to predict, as these arms tend to be the most volatile spots on the roster. I do think it probably looks pretty similar to this year's bullpen, with a few tweaks.

Chris Stratton and Drew VerHagen are both free agents after the season, and there are some internal candidates waiting to take their spots. We already saw Guillermo Zuniga briefly this season, and his stuff belongs in the Cardinals' bullpen as soon as possible. Wilking Rodriguez was supposed to be on the MLB roster this year as the Cardinals' Rule 5 selection, but he's missing the entire season with an injury. He may not be able to bounce back to be on the roster next season, but I'll project that for now.

Jordan Hicks is an interesting name to watch. He's a free agent after the year and has expressed interest multiple times to get an opportunity as a starter. He may decide to go elsewhere in free agency to get that chance, or even just get a bigger contract as a reliever than the Cardinals are willing to offer.

I like the idea of Matz in the bullpen, as he can be a very good option against left-handed hitters while also providing a bit of length from the bullpen, but I could easily see the Cardinals giving him a chance to start again.

Other potential options: Kodi Whitley, Jake Woodford, Jake Walsh, JoJo Romero, James Naile, free-agent addition

Lineups

vs. RH pitching

CF Lars Nootbaar
1B Paul Goldschmidt
2B Nolan Gorman
3B Nolan Arenado
RF Jordan Walker
C Willson Contreras
DH Alec Burleson
LF Brendan Donovan
SS Masyn Winn

Like we've seen with the Cardinals this year, their lineups will always be fluid, but I think this will be their "best" lineup against right-handed pitching. I'm sure it will often look different than this as they rotate players, but this is the prime lineup.

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vs. LH pitching

LF Lars Nootbaar
1B Paul Goldschmidt
RF Jordan Walker
3B Nolan Arenado
DH Nolan Gorman
C Willson Contreras
CF Dylan Carlson
2B Brendan Donovan
SS Masyn Winn

The biggest change I see in this lineup is the addition of Carlson, which makes them very good defensively overall. Walker slides into the third spot in the order, assuming he hits like I think he will between now and Opening Day. I could see Gorman or Contreras being in that spot, but I think Walker emerges there.

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