Predicting the fates of 7 Cardinals players, 2 coaches, and 1 executive after 2024

The 2025 offseason is bound to be one of flux for the St. Louis Cardinals. The process of change has already started, as Assistant General Manager/Director of Player Development Gary LaRocque has already announced that he'll retire at the end of the season. LaRocque likely won't be the only executive to go at the end of the season.

The Cardinals also have several players who are either free agents at the end of the season or who have options on their 2025 contracts. The Cardinals will get to choose to accept their team options, but they'll have to contend against other teams to bring back other free agents.

Due to the team having back-to-back losing seasons, it's also plausible that at least one coach departs at the end of the season.

Ryan Helsley will be traded this offseason.

There were whispers at this year's trade deadline that the Cardinals were shopping their closer, Ryan Helsley. Helsley has been at or near the top of the league in save totals all year, and he's been a shutdown reliever for the bulk of the season for the Cardinals. In fact, he's played in 55 of the team's 77 wins this year. His 45 saves rank second only to Emmanuel Clase of the Cleveland Guardians, and he leads the National League with that figure.

He has a 2.15 ERA, 2.53 FIP, and a 1.149 WHIP. He's struck out 29% of the batters he's faced while walking only 9% of them. Helsley has been dominant out of the bullpen, and he's salvaged many close games, something the Cardinals have been quite familiar with this year.

If Helsley has been so good, why would the Cardinals trade him? I've even been an advocate for the Cardinals to build him back up as a starting pitcher for next year.

The Cardinals should trade Helsley because his value is so high right now. He's one of the two best closers in baseball, his stuff is electric, and he has a history of being a starting pitcher should a team want to explore that role for him.

Relievers can be fickle; pitchers get hurt often. Keeping Helsley and assuming that he will remain both elite and healthy is a gamble. If the Cardinals can squeeze a top prospect out of him or a position player that fills a need, they should absolutely do that. JoJo Romero, Matthew Liberatore, and Andrew Kittredge --assuming he's retained next year (more on that later) -- could all be closers via committee for the team in 2025.

Oliver Marmol will return as manager in 2025, much to the chagrin of fans.

The 2025 season has likely shown us who Oliver Marmol is as a manager. He's someone who is thoughtful about his decisions while leaning on his assistant coaches and the front office for assistance. 2022 featured him leading a veteran-laden group to the playoffs. 2023 was a disaster on multiple fronts for Marmol. 2024 has been a season where the Cardinals met expectations. At this point, we know who Oliver Marmol is: he's someone who can defend his decisions even if they don't work out, he's a manager who prefers employing veterans, and he occasionally will call out a player publicly.

The extension Marmol received prior to the 2024 season gave him assurance for this year, but the team's improvements this year likely lock him into at least the 2025 season. The possibility of him being fired seems to have dissipated after a season where the Cardinals will have quite the improvement compared to 2024.

Personally, I think Marmol deserves another year. He was given a shoddy roster with virtually no bench options and a rotation whose cumulative age measured up against some of the oldest rotations in baseball history. He's led the team to a winning season this year. It's not Marmol's fault that Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Jordan Walker, and Nolan Gorman all dropped off this year. Marmol has also employed his bullpen quite well.

Don't expect the Cardinals to seek out a new manager this offseason; Oliver Marmol is here to stay.

Miles Mikolas needs to be traded this offseason.

I've held this position for months now, and Mikolas's recent outing doesn't change anything for me. Miles Mikolas being traded this offseason, regardless of the cost, is more beneficial for the team than him staying on the roster. He's expensive next year, he's been abysmal these past two seasons, and he's blocking young pitchers like Michael McGreevy and Gordon Graceffo from getting fair shots at the major league level.

Since the start of the 2023 season, Mikolas has thrown 362 innings. That's a crazy amount of reliability from a starting pitcher, and it shouldn't go unnoticed that he's made every start since then. However, those starts haven't been good. Across the last two seasons, Mikolas has a 5.10 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.304 WHIP, and an 85 ERA+. He's been mentioned with pitchers like Patrick Corbin and Alek Manoah these past two years as the worst starters in baseball.

In 30 starts this year, Mikolas has a 5.49 ERA, 4.22 FIP, and a 1.288 WHIP. He's allowed 24 home runs, tied for 16th-most among pitchers. His 98 earned runs allowed is second to only Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals.

It's sad to see Mikolas stumble the way he has these past two years. He had extremely successful campaigns in 2018 and 2022 with the Cardinals, and the hope was that he would be a serviceable #4 starting pitcher for the team this year. He's accomplished the goal of being a bulk pitcher, but his production has hampered the Cardinals' ability to win games.

If John Mozeliak can find a willing suitor for Miles Mikolas, even if the Cardinals have to swallow money or send a prospect with him, he has to do so.

The Cardinals will bring back Paul Goldschmidt to end his career as a Cardinal.

This has been a talking point all year dating back to pre-season games at spring training. Paul Goldschmidt is in the final year of his five-year, $130 million deal. He has a strong case for being a Hall of Famer, he's won an MVP award with the Cardinals, and his leadership has been invaluable to the team this year.

What matters more than the intangibles perhaps would be Goldschmidt's on-field performance. For most of the year, Goldy was performing well below his career averages. Prior to August, Goldschmidt had a .233/.291/.387 slash line for an OPS of just .678 and a wRC+ of 91. He was a below-league-average hitter, and his on-base abilities had disappeared.

Since August began, however, Goldy is slashing .282/.340/.477 for an OPS of .816 and a wRC+ of 127. It's been a tale of two seasons for the veteran first baseman, and his recent production has complicated the Cardinals' decision this offseason. On one hand, the Cardinals can offer Goldschmidt a qualifying offer. If he accepts it, he's on the team for one year at a price of around $22 million. If he declines it and signs elsewhere, the Cardinals receive a compensatory pick. They could also let Goldy test free agency and see where the chips may fall.

I would imagine Goldschmidt returns next year. The Cardinals as an organization have loved keeping a strong veteran presence on the team, particularly for nostalgic reasons. There is a dollar figure and term length where it makes sense for both Paul Goldschmidt and St. Louis to agree upon, but one side will have to budge more than the other.

If the Cardinals can bring back Paul Goldschmidt on a two-year deal worth around $30 million total, I would be content with that. He would have to accept a lesser role to make space for young players like Alec Burleson and Luken Baker, but he could still be a potent bat off the bench and a strong voice in the clubhouse as he finishes his career a Cardinal.

Turner Ward needs to be fired this offseason.

It doesn't matter if Turner Ward is actually the source of the team's offensive woes or not, he needs to be fired if not just to placate a rabid fanbase. For the last two seasons under Ward's leadership, the Cardinals have had one of the worst offenses in the league according to most metrics.

Since the start of the 2023 season, the Cardinals rank 16th according to wRC+ in the league, 17th in slugging percentage, 21st in ISO, 15th in on-base percentage, and 14th in batting average. Where they've particularly struggled has been with runners in scoring position. Since 2023, the Cardinals rank 25th in team wRC+, 26th in wOBA, 26th in slugging percentage, and 26th in batting average in such situations.

Suffice it to say, the Cardinals have been abysmal with runners in scoring position since the start of 2023. Whether this is directly a result of Turner Ward's leadership and coaching can't fully be understood or quantified, but someone has to be the scapegoat for this lackluster offense. Turner Ward is likely that person.

His experiences prior to becoming the team's hitting coach were vast; he was an assistant hitting coach for the Cardinals in 2022 along with being Paul Goldschmidt's preferred instructor. Aside from that, Ward was also a hitting coach for the Reds, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks along with a splattering of coaching appearances in Arizona's minor league system throughout the 2010's.

It's almost inevitable that Turner Ward will be fired after the season. There will be plenty viable replacements for him.

Lance Lynn will retire.

Lance Lynn is 37. He's played major league baseball for 13 years with a total of six different organizations. He has two All-Star appearances and a World Series ring in his collection. Luckily, he was able to play the 2024 season -- perhaps his last one -- with the same team that gave him a shot back in 2011. I would not be surprised to hear that Lance Lynn will retire after this season, especially considering his shoulder inflammation after Tuesday night's start.

Lance Lynn was drafted by the Cardinals in the first round of the 2008 MLB draft 39th overall. He debuted as a starter on June 2nd, 2011, and he was a part of that team's magical World Series run that same year. He has played for the Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers throughout his career. He's had a great career as a starting pitcher in baseball.

This year, Lynn has a 3.84 ERA in 117.1 innings pitched. He's struck out 109 batters as well, and he surpassed the 2,000-strikeout mark for his career two starts ago.

When asked after Tuesday night's game if he has considered calling it quits, Lynn was noncommittal. "I never want to stop pitching. I know that there is going to come a time where that is going to happen. I haven't really thought about it, but it's a part of getting old," said Lynn. If this was your last start at Busch Stadium, you don't want to lose. That was simple."

Lynn hasn't spoken about retirement, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear that Tuesday was his last start as a professional athlete.

Kyle Gibson's club option won't be exercised for next year.

The St. Louis Cardinals signed Kyle Gibson this past offseason due to his reliability and his veteran presence. The now-36-year-old starter had pitched more than 160 innings in a season in the last five seasons (2020 excluded), and he had seen the playoffs with teams like the Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins throughout his career.

St. Louis signed him to a one-year deal with a club option for 2025 worth $12 million. That's a fine total for a starting pitcher, but it feels a bit steep for an organization that intends on cutting payroll these next two years. The Cardinals have several young players who could at least duplicate Gibson's output for a fraction of the price.

This year, Gibson started off strong. Through July 31st, Gibson had a 3.97 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, and a 134 WHIP in 113.1 innings. He was the second-best pitcher on the staff to only Sonny Gray. Since August, however, Gibson has struggled mightily. He has a 4.63 ERA, a 4.28 FIP, and a 1.43 WHIP in 72 innings. He's no longer a reliable innings eater.

If the Cardinals intend on getting younger next year across the roster, they need to move on from Kyle Gibson. His contract, along with ones that were given out to Lance Lynn, Matt Carpenter, and Keynan Middleton, has allowed the team to move on easily from him. The organization should do just that this offseason rather than accepting Gibson's option. If anything, they should reinvest his money on a starter a tier above him like Michael Wacha or Sean Manaea.

This is simply my prediction for Kyle Gibson. I would not be surprised one bit to see the Cardinals accept his option since he's a known commodity and a guy who will pitch at least 150 innings with an ERA around 4.50 in any given season.

Matt Carpenter will return next year but not as a player.

Matt Carpenter will likely retire after this year. He's gone from a regular designated hitter/first baseman in 2022 to a reserve bat off the bench. It's time for the 38-year-old infielder to call it quits after 14 years in baseball.

Carpenter was drafted by the Cardinals in the 13th round of the 2009 MLB Draft out of Texas Christian University. He made his debut just two years later in 2011. Along with Lance Lynn, Matt Carpenter is the last active player in baseball from the 2011 World Series victory. He left the Cardinals following the 2021 season, and he played for the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Marp re-joined the Cardinals this year on a one-year, $740,000 deal. This was bound to be his swan song from the start of the season. In just 146 plate appearances, Carpenter has a .236/.317/.378 slash line with four home runs and 15 runs batted in for an OPS+ of 94. His on-field contributions have been less than anticipated, but he's been an excellent leader in the clubhouse for a variety of players on the team.

I would expect the Cardinals to keep Matt Carpenter in the organization next year; however, he won't be a player anymore. I think the Cardinals and Matt Carpenter will agree to a coaching role of some kind. Whether he becomes an assistant hitting coach or a minor league instructor, Carpenter will remain with the organization that drafted him 15 years ago in some capacity.

Chaim Bloom rises in the executive ranks in 2025.

Chaim Bloom was hired to provide an outside perspective for an organization that has thrived on promoting from within. He was tasked with surveying and identifying areas of improvement in the player development side of the organization. The fruits of his labor have already been shown in the growth of players like Quinn Mathews, Chen-Wei Lin, and others.

With the retirement of Gary LaRocque, the organization's former Assistant General Manager in charge of player development, there's an opening in the front office that fits Bloom's skillset. Most people assume that Bloom will supplant John Mozeliak in 2026 if not earlier. Mozeliak has said that he intends to take a step back next season. It's likely he still holds the title of President of Baseball Operations even if he cedes some control to others around him.

While it's possible Bloom could make an excellent POBO in St. Louis, his strengths lend him to focusing on player development. His transactional history isn't as strong as his track record with player acquisition. The players he drafted in his final years in Boston are now becoming major leaguers, and the fruits of his labor there are showing.

I do expect Chaim Bloom to be promoted from his current position as a special advisor to John Mozeliak; however, I don't think it will be as illustrious as a jump to General Manager or President of Baseball Operations. Taking over LaRocque's job as an assistant general manager with a focus on player development will be a great role for Chaim Bloom as he continues his ascendance with the Cardinals. Once Mozeliak is gone after the 2025 season, Bloom could then fill Mo's shoes.