Predicting the Cardinals roster, lineups and pitching staff 3 months from Opening Day

Three months from today, the St. Louis Cardinals will be facing off against the superteam that has been forming this offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers, beginning what is hopefully a bounce-back season after a disastrous 2023 campaign.

There is still a lot of offseason left to go, but we are already getting a pretty good idea of how the Cardinals' Opening Day roster is shaping up at the moment. It's likely that they'll add a bullpen arm or two through free agency in the next few months that will change some of this, and now that Yoshinobu Yamamoto has signed, the markets for potential starting pitching trade targets will start to take shape.

As things currently stand, this is how I see the Cardinals' Opening Day roster, projected starting lineups, and usage of their starting pitchers and bullpen arms will shake out.

Catchers

(2) - Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera

This is easy. Barring an injury to Contreras or Herrera, they will be the Cardinals' catchers on Opening Day this year.

After a crazy first season with St. Louis, Contreras comes into Spring Training with a vote of confidence from the Cardinals, and they gave him some things to work on over the offseason to further entrench himself as the club's starting catcher. Contreras will still get a lot of starts at the designated hitter spot, but right now there is no question that he is the club's primary catcher.

Herrera is replacing Andrew Knizner on this roster and is expected to have a large role with St. Louis this year. Contreras will likely catch between 90-100 games for the Cardinals, leaving about 60-70 appearances for Herrera to shine. After winning the Cardinals' Minor League Player of the Year award, Herrera is ready to be a significant contributor for a Major League club.

Pages was added to the Cardinals' 40-man roster this offseason and will likely get some run in St. Louis if an injury occurs. Pages is a defensive-minded catcher who could be a nice balance to the offensive profiles of Contreras and Herrera, although I don't see him finding a role beyond one that's created by injuries.

Just missed - Pedro Pages

Infielders

(6) - Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, and Alec Burleson

Like the catchers, the infield is mostly set for the Cardinals, but there are a few things that could shake up this group beyond unfortunate injuries,

First, although Masyn Winn is the projected starting shortstop, the Cardinals will need to see him earn the job in Spring Training for him to keep the job for Opening Day. No one is directly competing with with, as it's really just his job to lose. If Winn needs to begin the year at Triple-A, it'll mean Tommy Edman slides over to shortstop, and someone like Jose Fermin would make the roster as a backup shortstop.

Another way this group could shake up is if the Cardinals look to add a starting pitcher via trade, one way they could do so would be by trading Brendan Donovan or Nolan Gorman to acquire them. Until the trade market begins to heat up, it's really difficult to know how strongly the Cardinals will consider this, or if they could pull off a trade without one of them, but Oli Marmol seemed to leave the door open for one of Gorman or Donovan being moved.

Even if both are on the roster, Marmol and Mozeliak have both acknowledged that it'll be a competition to determine if Gorman or Donovan is the club's starting second baseman next year. The other would surely slot in as the club's designated hitter. If I had to guess, Gorman would be their preferred second baseman, as his defense can continue to stabilize if he's playing there every day. This would allow Donovan to fill in all over the field whenever he's needed as well.

I don't see Luken Baker being on the roster, and someone like Buddy Kennedy could be the 26th man if he has a good spring. The name I'm going to be watching very closely from the "just missed" category is Thomas Saggese, the reigning Texas League Most Valuable Player who came over in the Jordan Montgomery trade. Saggese has the potential to hit his way onto the Cardinals roster, but my guess is he'd be sent to Triple-A unless one of Gorman or Donovan is dealt or an injury happens. But look to see Saggese establish himself as a permanent member of the Cardinals roster at some point in 2024.

Just missed - Jose Fermin, Thomas Saggese, Buddy Kennedy, and Luken Baker

Outfielders

(5) - Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, and Richie Palacios

After trading Tyler O'Neill to the Boston Red Sox, the Cardinals' outfield group is now pretty clear, but like the infield, there are a few ways this group could change from what is currently projected.

Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker are locked in as the corner outfielders. Tommy Edman is projected to be the starting center fielder, but if Winn has to begin the year in Triple-A, he would play shortstop, and Dylan Carlson would likely start in center field.

Carlson has been anointed the club's fourth outfielder by John Mozeliak, and he'll likely see time at all three outfield spots. Alec Burleson may play some corner outfield as well, as could Richie Palacios. Palacios feels like the likely "26th man" to me right now, as he can play all three outfield positions while also being able to fill in at second base as well.

One name who could force his way onto the Opening Day roster is Victor Scott II. Scott is one of the Cardinals' top prospects and is now knocking on the door of the big leagues. His combination of elite speed and defense gives him a high floor as a player and his continued development at the plate has the Cardinals dreaming about his potential in both the near and long-term. It's likely that he'll start the year in Triple-A, but a strong spring could make it difficult to leave him off the Opening Day roster.

Just missed - Victor Scott II and Michael Siani

Starting Pitchers

(5) - Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson

While I strongly believe the Cardinals need to add another front-end starter via trade this offseason, and I actually feel pretty good about their chances of doing so, for now, I want to operate as if it does not happen before Opening Day.

Sonny Gray is coming off finishing second in Cy Young voting in the American Leauge and is an excellent arm to have at the top of the rotation. Where things get weak is when you look at the number two starter on this staff.

Someone like Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo, or Framber Valdez would make this rotation a lot better, but for now, it looks like they are hoping Miles Mikolas bounces back some while continuing to eat a lot of innings. I would actually argue that Steven Matz is the second most talented starter on this staff, and I fully expect him to pitch like it this year. Injuries have derailed him the last two years, but in his return to the Cardinals rotation after a brief stint in the bullpen last year, he had a sub-2.00 ERA.

The other two free-agent additions, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, should help raise the Cardinals' floor in 2024.

While someone like Gordon Graceffo could turn heads in Spring Training, since he's not on the 40-man roster already, I think it's very likely he would begin the year in Triple-A, and could factor in later on in 2024.

Just missed - Matthew Liberatore, Drew Rom, Adam Kloffenstein and

Bullpen

(8) - Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, JoJo Romero, free-agent signing, Zack Thompson, Ryan Fernandez, Andre Pallante, and Nick Robertson

The bullpen group, like most years, is the most difficult bunch to predict heading into the season. There are probably 15 or so names who have a good chance of making the bullpen to start the year, and honestly, there's still an addition or two that needs to be made.

While I decided not to project a rotation addition in this, I did predict a bullpen arm being added through free agency, as it's been reported time and time again that it's their intention to add at least one more high-leverage arm to the mix.

That new arm or arms, paired with Helsley, Gallegos, and Romero, would take the bulk of the high-leverage situations late in games. But what I really like about the additions of Fernandez, Robertson, or even a guy like Riley O'Brien that I don't have making the roster initially is all three of them have really interesting arsenals out of the bullpen. Any of those three guys, or even a Wilking Rodriguez or Guillermo Zuniga, could grab larger roles later in the year.

Fernandez is a Rule 5 pick, so barring injury or just being bad, he's making the roster. With so many of these arms having multiple options though, we'll likely see a mix of them at various points.

Just missed - John King, Riley O'Brien, Wilking Rodriguez, and Guillermo Zuniga