Predicting the Cardinals roster, lineups and pitching staff 3 months from Opening Day

Three months from today, the St. Louis Cardinals will be facing off against the superteam that has been forming this offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers, beginning what is hopefully a bounce-back season after a disastrous 2023 campaign.

There is still a lot of offseason left to go, but we are already getting a pretty good idea of how the Cardinals' Opening Day roster is shaping up at the moment. It's likely that they'll add a bullpen arm or two through free agency in the next few months that will change some of this, and now that Yoshinobu Yamamoto has signed, the markets for potential starting pitching trade targets will start to take shape.

As things currently stand, this is how I see the Cardinals' Opening Day roster, projected starting lineups, and usage of their starting pitchers and bullpen arms will shake out.

Catchers

(2) - Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera

This is easy. Barring an injury to Contreras or Herrera, they will be the Cardinals' catchers on Opening Day this year.

After a crazy first season with St. Louis, Contreras comes into Spring Training with a vote of confidence from the Cardinals, and they gave him some things to work on over the offseason to further entrench himself as the club's starting catcher. Contreras will still get a lot of starts at the designated hitter spot, but right now there is no question that he is the club's primary catcher.

Herrera is replacing Andrew Knizner on this roster and is expected to have a large role with St. Louis this year. Contreras will likely catch between 90-100 games for the Cardinals, leaving about 60-70 appearances for Herrera to shine. After winning the Cardinals' Minor League Player of the Year award, Herrera is ready to be a significant contributor for a Major League club.

Pages was added to the Cardinals' 40-man roster this offseason and will likely get some run in St. Louis if an injury occurs. Pages is a defensive-minded catcher who could be a nice balance to the offensive profiles of Contreras and Herrera, although I don't see him finding a role beyond one that's created by injuries.

Just missed - Pedro Pages

Infielders

(6) - Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, and Alec Burleson

Like the catchers, the infield is mostly set for the Cardinals, but there are a few things that could shake up this group beyond unfortunate injuries,

First, although Masyn Winn is the projected starting shortstop, the Cardinals will need to see him earn the job in Spring Training for him to keep the job for Opening Day. No one is directly competing with with, as it's really just his job to lose. If Winn needs to begin the year at Triple-A, it'll mean Tommy Edman slides over to shortstop, and someone like Jose Fermin would make the roster as a backup shortstop.

Another way this group could shake up is if the Cardinals look to add a starting pitcher via trade, one way they could do so would be by trading Brendan Donovan or Nolan Gorman to acquire them. Until the trade market begins to heat up, it's really difficult to know how strongly the Cardinals will consider this, or if they could pull off a trade without one of them, but Oli Marmol seemed to leave the door open for one of Gorman or Donovan being moved.

Even if both are on the roster, Marmol and Mozeliak have both acknowledged that it'll be a competition to determine if Gorman or Donovan is the club's starting second baseman next year. The other would surely slot in as the club's designated hitter. If I had to guess, Gorman would be their preferred second baseman, as his defense can continue to stabilize if he's playing there every day. This would allow Donovan to fill in all over the field whenever he's needed as well.

I don't see Luken Baker being on the roster, and someone like Buddy Kennedy could be the 26th man if he has a good spring. The name I'm going to be watching very closely from the "just missed" category is Thomas Saggese, the reigning Texas League Most Valuable Player who came over in the Jordan Montgomery trade. Saggese has the potential to hit his way onto the Cardinals roster, but my guess is he'd be sent to Triple-A unless one of Gorman or Donovan is dealt or an injury happens. But look to see Saggese establish himself as a permanent member of the Cardinals roster at some point in 2024.

Just missed - Jose Fermin, Thomas Saggese, Buddy Kennedy, and Luken Baker

Starting Pitchers

(5) - Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson

While I strongly believe the Cardinals need to add another front-end starter via trade this offseason, and I actually feel pretty good about their chances of doing so, for now, I want to operate as if it does not happen before Opening Day.

Sonny Gray is coming off finishing second in Cy Young voting in the American Leauge and is an excellent arm to have at the top of the rotation. Where things get weak is when you look at the number two starter on this staff.

Someone like Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo, or Framber Valdez would make this rotation a lot better, but for now, it looks like they are hoping Miles Mikolas bounces back some while continuing to eat a lot of innings. I would actually argue that Steven Matz is the second most talented starter on this staff, and I fully expect him to pitch like it this year. Injuries have derailed him the last two years, but in his return to the Cardinals rotation after a brief stint in the bullpen last year, he had a sub-2.00 ERA.

The other two free-agent additions, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, should help raise the Cardinals' floor in 2024.

While someone like Gordon Graceffo could turn heads in Spring Training, since he's not on the 40-man roster already, I think it's very likely he would begin the year in Triple-A, and could factor in later on in 2024.

Just missed - Matthew Liberatore, Drew Rom, Adam Kloffenstein and

Bullpen

(8) - Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, JoJo Romero, free-agent signing, Zack Thompson, Ryan Fernandez, Andre Pallante, and Nick Robertson

The bullpen group, like most years, is the most difficult bunch to predict heading into the season. There are probably 15 or so names who have a good chance of making the bullpen to start the year, and honestly, there's still an addition or two that needs to be made.

While I decided not to project a rotation addition in this, I did predict a bullpen arm being added through free agency, as it's been reported time and time again that it's their intention to add at least one more high-leverage arm to the mix.

That new arm or arms, paired with Helsley, Gallegos, and Romero, would take the bulk of the high-leverage situations late in games. But what I really like about the additions of Fernandez, Robertson, or even a guy like Riley O'Brien that I don't have making the roster initially is all three of them have really interesting arsenals out of the bullpen. Any of those three guys, or even a Wilking Rodriguez or Guillermo Zuniga, could grab larger roles later in the year.

Fernandez is a Rule 5 pick, so barring injury or just being bad, he's making the roster. With so many of these arms having multiple options though, we'll likely see a mix of them at various points.

Just missed - John King, Riley O'Brien, Wilking Rodriguez, and Guillermo Zuniga

Starting lineups, rotation, and bullpen roles

Lineup vs. RHP
DH Brendan Donovan
1B Paul Goldschmidt
2B Nolan Gorman
3B Nolan Arenado
C Willson Contreras
LF Lars Nootbaar
RF Jordan Walker
CF Tommy Edman
SS Masyn Winn

Lineup vs. LHP
CF Dylan Carlson
1B Paul Goldschmidt
DH Willson Contreras
3B Nolan Arenado
2B Nolan Gorman
RF Jordan Walker
LF Lars Nootbaar
C Ivan Herrera
SS Masyn Winn/Tommy Edman

Rotation
1. Sonny Gray
2. Miles Mikolas
3. Steven Matz
4. Lance Lynn
5. Kyle Gibson

Bullpen
High leverage - Ryan Helsley, free agent addition, Giovanny Gallegos, JoJo Romero

Middle innings - Ryan Fernandez, Andre Pallante, Nick Robertson

Long relief/spot starter - Zack Thompson

Analysis
I spent way too much time debating how the lineup would be set up for both right-handed and left-handed pitching, and you could convince me of a ton of other combinations.

Against right-handed pitching, either Nootbaar or Donovan would lead off, and I leaned toward Donovan because of his high OBP approach and the elite production he had from late May until being placed on the Injured List in late July. I also kind of think that Nootbaar profiles better as a sixth hitter than Donovan because of his power, but again, you can switch them if you want. I also could see Nootbaar batting third and Gorman batting sixth, but I just think Gorman's power output needs to be in the heart of the order.

Check out Gorman's OBP, SLG, and wRC+ by month in 2023.

Outside of the horrible month of June and a below-league-average August, Gorman was 35%-55% above league average as a hitter with elite on-base and slugging numbers throughout the year. Gorman is a streaky hitter, and if that remains the case, then he can slide down in the order and Nootbaar can bat third when Gorman is in a funk, but when he's on, he needs to be high in the order.

There's a pretty good chance Jordan Walker will rise in the order in the very near future. After being called back up in June, he posted a .277/.346/.455 slash line with a 120 wRC+, and that improved to .286/.356/.470 with a 126 wRC+ over the last two months of the year. I think Goldschmidt, Arenado, and Contreras will all bat higher to start the year, but I would not be surprised to see one of them bumped down in favor of him by midseason against both right and left-handed pitching.

Speaking of left-handed pitching, Donovan has struggled against left-handers his first two years and Carlson has been elite, so I can see Carlson getting the starting nod against lefties and Donovan being a weapon off the bench when their opponent goes to the bullpen.

I also think this could be an interesting time to start Ivan Herrea and let Willson Contreras rest of have a DH day. They are going to balance their playing time based on rest and recovery mainly, but if they want to be strategic, using left-handed matchups as a part of this makes sense. This would also be a good time to give either Tommy Edman or Masyn Winn a rest day since they are the only two shortstops on the roster but both are slated to play every day.

Outside of a trade before Spring Training, the Cardinals rotation looks to be set already, and I see Matz slotting in as the number three starter. Honestly, I think he's the second-best starter on the staff right now, but Mikolas likely slots in as the number two anyway.

While this may be how I see the bullpen stacking up to start the year, the actual players in the bullpen and the roles they fill will likely be fluid for months on end. The Cardinals have a lot of relievers with options, so they can send guys up and down based on performance and health, and some of their new young arms could carve out bigger roles as the season goes on.