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MLB Midseason Awards: Who is leading the MVP, Cy Young, and ROY races?
Most teams have passed the 81-game mark. The season is just over halfway through. Let's take a look at the leaders for MVP, ROY, and Cy Young for the American League and the National League.
The most official judgment of first-half success (and popularity) in baseball is the All-Star Vote. ESPN released those rosters on June 29th here. An unofficial barometer for mid-season success can be found by looking at current odds for the end-of-the-year awards. The Most Valuable Player, Rookie of the Year, and Cy Young odds leaders at the halfway point can be good tools to use to evaluate who had a stellar first half. Unfortunately, you won't really see many Cardinals here.
Using WAR totals and odds predictions by Vegas Insider, we can discover which players are most likely to bring home a trophy at the end of the year. Keep in mind, many teams still have 80+ games left to play. Therefore, these odds and predictions can change at any moment.
I'll analyze the most likely awards first and end with the awards that are most up in the air.
Who do you want to win these prestigious awards in each league? Do you have any dark horses who can rise to the top in the second half? Which player is currently leading but will fall off? Which players were supposed to perform well but haven't thus far?
Here are the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year leaders in the National League and American League as we start the month of July
American League MVP
This award should be easy each year at this point. Shohei Ohtani is currently the odds favorite to win AL MVP. At -1450, he has a clear and definite lead over the second-place favorite, Corey Seager (+3500). Ohtani may eventually become prone to the "Lebron Effect" in which people get so tired of his success and contributions that voters look past him. That, however, is not the case this year. Ohtani is putting up other-worldly numbers as both a pitcher and a hitter.
As a pitcher, he has a 1.9 WAR with an ERA of 3.02, a FIP of 3.76, and a WHIP of 1.038. While he has been a little erratic this year (leading the league in wild pitches and hit-by pitches), his strikeout and hits/9 innings numbers are also best in the league.
While Ohtani is a strong pitcher, his hitting is where he truly shines. His slash line currently reads .309/.392/.666 (league-leading) for an OPS of 1.057 (league-leading) and an OPS+ of 184 (league-leading). He is also leading the league in total bases at 209 as of June 30th. Ohtani's total WAR currently sits at a ridiculous 6.5! Some players who will win MVP will top out at that number at the end of the year. He has achieved it only halfway through the year.
Players to watch: Corey Seager, Bo Bichette, Wander Franco, Marcus Semien
National League MVP
National League MVP is a bit closer as far as the odds go. Ronald Acuna Jr. (-195) has a comfortable lead over the next favorites, Freddie Freeman (+950) and Corbin Carroll (+950). After fighting injuries for a couple of years, Acuna appears to be fully back.
For the season, Acuna is slashing .331/.408/.585 for an OPS of .993 and an OPS+ of 164. These numbers lead the National League (but are still a step or two below those of Ohtani, showing how transcendental Shohei truly is). Perhaps the most impressive stat of Acuna's is his 36 stolen bases. He currently has a combined 57 home runs and stolen bases, on track to surpass 100 on the year between these two stats.
Acuna hasn't been a gold glover historically. However, he has been above average this year. According to Fielding Bible, he sits at 5 DRS for the season. His routes and positioning are average, but his strong arm allows him to make tough throws that other outfielders normally wouldn't.
Players to watch: Freddie Freeman, Corbin Carroll (see next page), and Luis Arraez (.392 batting average)
National League Rookie of the Year
Ever since the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement that gave bonuses to teams whose players won awards, front offices have been more apt to start their prospects earlier and more often. The National League saw a large influx of prospects starting in the majors right after Spring Training. Corbin Carroll was one such player.
Carroll is one of the, if not the, fastest players in the league. As was shown in the MVP discussion, he is not only holding a strong league to win Rookie of the Year, but he also has a chance to win MVP. He is slashing .290/.366/.559 for an OPS of .926 and an OPS+ of 151. He has 24 stolen bases and has hit 17 home runs on the season.
Carroll also plays a premium defensive spot in centerfield. This only helps his value when considering awards. Touted as a top prospect in all of baseball for a few years now, the Diamondbacks are reaping the benefits of Corbin Carroll's talent. He should expect to see an award with his name on it at the end of the year.
Players to watch: Jordan Walker, Elly De La Cruz, Bobby Miller, and Eury Perez
National League Cy Young
The odds for the remaining awards get much closer. All three are with 100 points on odds boards. Zac Gallen (ouch, Cardinals fans) is currently the odds leader for NL Cy Young at +200. Clayton Kershaw is sitting right behind him at +300. Cy Young is tough to predict; one good start for your rival and one bad start for you can shift the odds drastically.
Gallen is sitting at 3.3 WAR for the season. He has an ERA of 3.02, a FIP of 2.74, and a WHIP of 1.093. His FIP leads the league. Most impressive, however, is the fact that he has pitched into the 6th inning in all but two of his 17 starts. He continually limits opposing teams to three runs or fewer in his starts.
Clayton Kershaw, on the other hand, has 2.2 WAR. His WAR total is surprisingly low given his odds. He has a crazy 2.55 ERA, 3.53 FIP, and a league-leading 1.049 WHIP. The final candidate in this author's opinion would be Zach Wheeler. While he is sixth according to Fanduel Sportsbook in odds, his WAR total is at 3.2, just shy of Gallen. He has an ERA of 3.86, 2.77 FIP, and 1.179 WHIP. He isn't leading the league in any values, but his low FIP indicates that he is able to limit hitters despite a lackluster defense behind him.
Players to watch: Spencer Strider, Logan Webb, Marcus Stroman
American League Cy Young
As of June 30th, Shane McClanahan (+250) is leading the AL Cy Young vote. Close behind him is Framber Valdez (+350) followed by Kevin Gausman (+480). The gap between first and third place is very close, however.
McClanahan, a 26-year-old lefty, is the ace of the Tampa Bay Rays staff. He has been dominant ever since he came up to the majors three years ago. He has a league-leading 2.23 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 1.118 WHIP, and a league-leading 182 ERA+. He has been stellar all year for one of the best teams in the majors right now.
Framber Valdez is close behind McClanahan. Valdez has a 2.49 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 1.048 WHIP and a league-leading 170 ERA+. His 3.2 WAR edges out McClanahan's 3.1 WAR. Valdez has only failed to get past the fourth inning in one of his starts, and he has a complete-game shutout on his resume for the year.
The next closest contender is Kevin Gausman. Gausman, a right-handed strikeout pitcher, is leading the charge for the Blue Jays rotation. He strikes out just over 32% of batters he sees, and he has a league-leading 2.54 FIP to go along with 139 strikeouts. His WAR, however, sits at 1.8, significantly lower than Valdez and McClanahan.
Players to watch: Gerrit Cole, Joe Ryan, Shohei Ohtani, and Luis Castillo
American League Rookie of the Year
The AL ROY award is very close. The top three players, Josh Jung (+160), Masataka Yoshida (+270), and Gunnar Henderson (+320) are all possible winners.
Josh Jung wasn't even in the top five for the preseason odds. However, he has had a strong year up to this point, helping the first-place Texas Rangers on both offense and defense. The twenty-five year-old is slashing .274/.327/.494 for an OPS of .821. While his numbers aren't as gaudy as other rookies, his all-around performance has been strong. He has 17 home runs and a rookie-leading 85 hits on the season. While his DRS numbers (2) are low, he passes the eye test on the hot corner. Jung has accumulated 2.4 WAR on the season.
Masatka Yoshida is just the latest of many Japanese players who have come over and succeeded in the United States. He is an offensive firecracker who gets on base at high rates. His .301/.372/.475 slash line places him among the best hitters in the league. The right fielder has 27 walks to 35 strikeouts, a strong ratio. However, he has only accumulated 1 WAR due to poor defensive numbers.
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The final AL ROY candidate is Gunnar Henderson. Henderson is part of a surging youth movement in Baltimore. He has a slash line of .240/.338/.459 for an OPS of .797. These numbers are the lowest of the three candidates. He has played primarily third base but has also shifted over to shortstop at times. He has racked up 1.8 WAR on the season.
Players to watch: Hunter Brown and Bryce Miller
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Next. 4 duds from the Cardinals series against the Astros. 4 duds from the Cardinals series against the Astros. dark