Making the right trade decision for the Cardinals: Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo?

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Even after adding Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Sonny Gray, St. Louis's rotation still feels a tier below other playoff contenders' rotations, especially the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League. They could be forced to go head-to-head with the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins in the American League come playoff time.

Reports have been swirling all offseason regarding Chicago White Sox's All-Star starter, Dylan Cease. The St. Louis Cardinals have been connected to him throughout the process, and they have the prospect capital to swing a trade for the right-handed pitcher. Buster Olney of ESPN recently reported that a Dylan Cease trade may have to wait until the trade deadline, as teams aren't willing to meet Chicago's high demands. He most recently signed for $8 million through arbitration.

St. Louis has also been linked to a young starter in Miami: Jesus Luzardo. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch brought up the team's interest in Luzardo as recently as early January. Luzardo, a southpaw who is only twenty-six, currently pitches for the Miami Marlins. He has faced more injuries than Dylan Cease up to this point in his career, but he seems to have quelled these concerns with his 2023 season. Jesus Luzardo and the Marlins agreed on a $5.5 million deal for 2024.

Either Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo would immediately make the Cardinals' rotation one of the best in the league. They would be able to tout two top-of-the-rotation starting pitchers, and they could roll both out to start a playoff series and immediately have the upper hand. The only issue, however, is that getting either of these starters will cost a lot in player capital.

Both players feature different profiles, but both would provide a great boost to a rotation still in need of some assistance. I wanted to take a deeper look into what each pitcher would provide the Cardinals' 2024 pitching staff. They are young, relatively controllable, and can both dominate a game, so I wanted to look a little further and find out which pitcher could provide the most benefit to the team.

Which starting pitching trade candidate would be the better option for the St. Louis Cardinals to trade for this season, Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo?

Dylan Cease

Making a case for Dylan Cease is pretty easy; he placed second in the American League Cy Young race in 2022, he has started at least thirty-two games each year for the past three seasons, and he has a K rate that is significantly above league average for his career.

The case against Dylan Cease isn't necessarily related to his performance, but rather it's related to Chicago White Sox ownership. New General Manager Chris Getz is willing to trade away any of his players, but he is asking for a king's ransom in exchange for his ace. The Cardinals have the prospect capital to make a trade, but would they be wise to give up two or more potential MLB regulars for just two years of Dylan Cease?

Prospects are volatile, yes, but starting pitchers can go down at any point, especially with upticks in velocity recently and the pitch clock accelerating pitchers. It's no guarantee that prospects such as Tekoah Roby or Tink Hence turn out to be as good or better than an established player like Dylan Cease.

Across the past two seasons, Dylan Cease has pitched a total of 361 innings with a 3.37 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 1.260 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 125. Those numbers are heavily bolstered by a tremendous 2022 season, but he was no slouch last year either. He had a 28.8% strikeout rate and a 10.3% walk rate in that same span. His walk rate is worse than league average, but his high K rate makes up for that.

Cease hasn't faced a major injury in his career (excluding Tommy John Surgery in high school), so he has proven himself to be quite durable. There may be some concern with his fastball velocity, as it lost some power behind it last year, and he gave up a career-high average exit velocity against of 90 MPH last year.

Dylan Cease would cost the Cardinals their prized prospects, and at least two of those prospects will likely come from the team's top 100. That would be a blow to a farm system that just got back on track. It could be worth the gamble, but I don't think it's quite worth it trading for Dylan Cease either this offseason or at the trade deadline.

Jesus Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo is a more recent riser in baseball. Fans of the Miami Marlins are familiar with him, as he was a part of their rising star pitchers including Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, and Edward Carbera. National fans, however, may not be as familiar with the southpaw out of Peru.

Luzardo's downside would be his injury history. 2023 was his first full season of his career, and he has quite an extensive injury history. A spattering of injuries in 2021 and 2022 led him to pitch right around 100 innings each season. Luzardo allows a concerning amount of barrels (8.7% career rate, MLB average is 6.9%) and home runs.

Luzardo has pitched significantly fewer innings these past two years (279 innings) than Dylan Cease has. He sports a 3.52 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 1.154 WHIP, and a 124 ERA+. He and Cease get to a near-identical point based on ERA+, but they do it in two very different ways. Cease, via limiting home runs and reliability, is able to maintain a lower ERA. Luzardo, however, has shown a greater ability to get strikeouts while sacrificing some hard hits.

Miami is looking to contend next year, so they'll likely ask for at least one MLB player. Nolan Gorman seems to be the most likely candidate for a trade to Miami. He can play second or third base, and he would shine as a designated hitter, something the Marlins need after the departure of Jorge Soler.

Luzardo has one extra year of team control left compared to Dylan Cease, and he would likely cost the Cardinals less in a trade than Dylan Cease would. St. Louis could hoard its top prospects and instead trade for a bonafide starter. As recently as December, the Marlins were eyeing first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino from the Kansas City Royals. This potential trade shows that Miami is targeting MLB players rather than prospects.

Personally, I would prefer we trade for Jesus Luzardo instead of Dylan Cease. Luzardo's injury concerns give me pause, but his strikeout numbers, his ability to stay healthy in 2023, and his team control are all tantalizing. Cease will likely cost the Cardinals three of their top-10 prospects, and he will be a free agent a full year earlier than Luzardo.

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Which starting pitching trade candidate would be the better option for the St. Louis Cardinals to trade for this season, Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo?

Dylan Cease

Jesus Luzardo

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