Making cases for the Cardinals to buy, sell, or float in the middle at the deadline

As Major League Baseball's July 30th trade deadline looms larger and larger, clarity begins to grow for some teams. For others, their modus operandi come the end of July isn't settled as of yet. The extra Wild Card spot that was introduced a few years ago has made plenty of teams who float in the middle of the standings waver on their trade deadline approach as of now.

Conversations surrounding trades have already started, and some major trades have already occurred, such as the one that sent Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres. National writers have begun leaking some details about what teams could do at the deadline this year including ESPN's Jeff Passan.

For a team in the middle of the pack such as the St. Louis Cardinals, there are three possible routes for them to take this trade deadline. They can go all in on the season and be buyers, they can restock for the future and be sellers, or they can operate somewhere in the middle to try and fill holes while not losing key prospects.

There is an almost equal case for each of these routes this year, as the Cardinals (29-31) sit in 3rd place in the National League Central, just 6 games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers. They're also a half-game behind the San Diego Padres for the final Wild Card spot prior to games on June 6th. The playoffs are still within reach for the Cardinals.

FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a 31.6% chance to reach the playoffs, though that is the 7th-best in the National League, meaning this projection system doesn't believe the team will make the playoffs this year. Baseball-Reference, conversely, gives the Cardinals just a 4.8% chance of making the postseason this year, far and away the worst in the division.

Regardless of the route John Mozeliak and his staff choose to take at this year's deadline, it will be one that has ramifications for the foreseeable future. Become buyers and the future is a bit jeopardized. Sell and the fanbase will become more scant than it already is. Float in the middle and the team will be stuck with the mediocrity it's experienced for nearly a decade now.

Here are convincing arguments for each of the 3 paths the St. Louis Cardinals can take at this year's trade deadline.

The case to be buyers

Everyone loves winning!

That's the crux of it. If the St. Louis Cardinals are true buyers at this deadline, they can land some serious stars. Jesus Luzardo (2.5 years of team control), Luis Robert Jr. (3.5 years of team control), and Garrett Crochet (2.5 years of team control) have all been listed as players who are extremely likely to be traded by their respective teams this year. Each of those guys would be a difference-maker with the Cardinals.

If the Cardinals were to be buyers and successfully land one of these studs, the outlook of the roster, both now and later, becomes much brighter. Even if they don't want to challenge major organizations for these stars, there are still plenty of secondary players who could make a difference. Jordan Montgomery, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Erick Fedde would all be beneficial to the team.

The Cardinals are easily within striking distance of a playoff spot, especially when looking at the Wild Card. The Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, and Arizona Diamondbacks are all muddled within 2 games of each other in the standings. A couple of moves at the deadline would easily set the Cardinals ahead of the others.

If the Brewers falter, which they have been lately, the Cardinals could even lock up home-field advantage in the first round via a division crown.

Being sellers for the second year in a row will deflate an already suppressed fanbase. Attendance has fallen on average by nearly 3,000 people per game. A second consecutive year of waving the white flag in July would surely extinguish all hope that's left. Being buyers would send a message to the fans that this organization sees 2023 as a blip rather than the start of a trend.

The case to float in the middle

For years, this has seemed like the route the Cardinals have taken. John Mozeliak has often shied away from trading for big-name players like Juan Soto, David Price, and Max Scherzer. Mozeliak and his operatives love their prospects, and the market they operate in hinders them financially with some deadline trades.

Rather than making these big splashes, John Mozeliak has opted to make trades on the margins. The core of the roster has been sound for over 2 decades now; adding a reliever or two here and a bench piece there has allowed the front office to keep its beloved prospects while not hampering the major league roster.

In 2021, the Cardinals acquired J.A. Happ and Jon Lester. Neither was a frontline starter, but they both provided value down the stretch. In 2022, the Cardinals traded for Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana. Neither was amazing for their previous organizations, but both were exceptional for the Cardinals, particularly Jordan Montgomery.

These are the types of moves fans are accustomed to seeing from John Mozeliak. If this is the approach the Cardinals take at this year's deadline, fans can expect the team to maintain its current state and possibly exceed the precious 86-win mark that is often needed to make the playoffs. Players like Paul Blackburn, Tyler Anderson, Tanner Scott, and Tommy Pham would be players who could be acquired if the organization chooses this approach. Those are all very serviceable players, and they won't cost much in prospect (or financial) capital to acquire.

This approach will allow the organization to keep prized prospects like Tink Hence, Victor Scott II, and Thomas Saggese. It also won't hamper the cohesion that seems to be present on the major league roster. This approach isn't necessarily the most sexy, but it sure is the most prudent.