Making cases for the Cardinals to buy, sell, or float in the middle at the deadline

As Major League Baseball's July 30th trade deadline looms larger and larger, clarity begins to grow for some teams. For others, their modus operandi come the end of July isn't settled as of yet. The extra Wild Card spot that was introduced a few years ago has made plenty of teams who float in the middle of the standings waver on their trade deadline approach as of now.

Conversations surrounding trades have already started, and some major trades have already occurred, such as the one that sent Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres. National writers have begun leaking some details about what teams could do at the deadline this year including ESPN's Jeff Passan.

For a team in the middle of the pack such as the St. Louis Cardinals, there are three possible routes for them to take this trade deadline. They can go all in on the season and be buyers, they can restock for the future and be sellers, or they can operate somewhere in the middle to try and fill holes while not losing key prospects.

There is an almost equal case for each of these routes this year, as the Cardinals (29-31) sit in 3rd place in the National League Central, just 6 games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers. They're also a half-game behind the San Diego Padres for the final Wild Card spot prior to games on June 6th. The playoffs are still within reach for the Cardinals.

FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a 31.6% chance to reach the playoffs, though that is the 7th-best in the National League, meaning this projection system doesn't believe the team will make the playoffs this year. Baseball-Reference, conversely, gives the Cardinals just a 4.8% chance of making the postseason this year, far and away the worst in the division.

Regardless of the route John Mozeliak and his staff choose to take at this year's deadline, it will be one that has ramifications for the foreseeable future. Become buyers and the future is a bit jeopardized. Sell and the fanbase will become more scant than it already is. Float in the middle and the team will be stuck with the mediocrity it's experienced for nearly a decade now.

Here are convincing arguments for each of the 3 paths the St. Louis Cardinals can take at this year's trade deadline.

The case to float in the middle

For years, this has seemed like the route the Cardinals have taken. John Mozeliak has often shied away from trading for big-name players like Juan Soto, David Price, and Max Scherzer. Mozeliak and his operatives love their prospects, and the market they operate in hinders them financially with some deadline trades.

Rather than making these big splashes, John Mozeliak has opted to make trades on the margins. The core of the roster has been sound for over 2 decades now; adding a reliever or two here and a bench piece there has allowed the front office to keep its beloved prospects while not hampering the major league roster.

In 2021, the Cardinals acquired J.A. Happ and Jon Lester. Neither was a frontline starter, but they both provided value down the stretch. In 2022, the Cardinals traded for Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana. Neither was amazing for their previous organizations, but both were exceptional for the Cardinals, particularly Jordan Montgomery.

These are the types of moves fans are accustomed to seeing from John Mozeliak. If this is the approach the Cardinals take at this year's deadline, fans can expect the team to maintain its current state and possibly exceed the precious 86-win mark that is often needed to make the playoffs. Players like Paul Blackburn, Tyler Anderson, Tanner Scott, and Tommy Pham would be players who could be acquired if the organization chooses this approach. Those are all very serviceable players, and they won't cost much in prospect (or financial) capital to acquire.

This approach will allow the organization to keep prized prospects like Tink Hence, Victor Scott II, and Thomas Saggese. It also won't hamper the cohesion that seems to be present on the major league roster. This approach isn't necessarily the most sexy, but it sure is the most prudent.

The case to be sellers

The Cardinals have plenty of players who would be appealing to contenders. Ryan Helsley, Paul Goldschmidt, JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge, Nolan Arenado, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and even Sonny Gray have all had their names mentioned at least once as candidates. Obviously, not all of these players will be dealt this year, but it's possible 3-5 of them are if the team commits to selling.

The main benefit to being sellers would be prospect replenishment. The Cardinals have a farm system that ranks between 15th and 20th according to most outlets. Only Tink Hence, Victor Scott II, and Thomas Saggese are on the top-100 list according to MLB.com, and Hence is the only one in the top 50. Dealing any of the aforementioned players, especially Ryan Helsley and Sonny Gray, would net multiple top-100 prospects in baseball in return.

Being sellers will allow the team to get a return for players who are on expiring contracts like Paul Goldschmidt, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge. Rather than losing these players and getting nothing in return during the offseason, the Cardinals can at least garner a minor leaguer with some upside as reimbursement.

Being sellers would excite some fans in a sense. Young prospects like Tink Hence, Sem Robberse, Victor Scott II, and even Quinn Matthews could see greater exposure. The team could lean heavily into a youth movement by providing time for their young position players to shine.

The issue with selling, however, is that fan interest plummets. The team is no longer outwardly competitive, and droves of fans will continue to not show up. Seeing the top level of a baseball franchise put effort forth bleeds down to even the lowly fan. Player morale will also drop, and the work that John Mozeliak did to revamp the clubhouse this offseason gets reset.