Looking at the Cardinals position groups entering the 2023 season

The Cardinals have a ton of potential, but how good can they be in 2023?

You can learn a great deal watching baseball for 40 years.  Sometimes you learn that old adages have been around for a long time because they are just true.  One of those old adages is that good pitching will always beat good hitting.  Unfortunately, I think this may also sum up the fate of the 2023 Cardinals. 

Barring significant injuries to core players, the Cardinals should win the NL Central.  The question for most Cards fans is whether they can compete for the pennant or the World Series crown.  Let’s look at the three phases of the game and the Cards’ NL competition to make some early predictions about the upcoming season and playoffs.

Offense

The Cardinals should have little trouble scoring runs.  Per TeamRankings, the Cards averaged 4.73 runs per game last year, tied for fifth place in all of baseball, one spot ahead of the pennant-winning Phillies and five spots ahead of division rival Milwaukee.  Even with the loss of Albert Pujols to retirement, the offense should be better in 2023.

The offense is led by perennial MVP candidates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman’s steady contribution.  The second base duo of Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman should provide above-average production from the position.

The addition of Wilson Contreras at catcher is a clear offensive upgrade over Yadier Molina.  Last year, the Cardinals ranked 27th in WAR among MLB catchers.  Assuming Contreras bats fifth in the order, the Cards are solid at 3-4-5 and he will provide consistent protection for Arenado in the clean-up spot.  Contreras hit 22 homers in 416 at-bats last year and had an OPS of .815.  His bat is good enough that he can DH when he isn’t catching.

The projected production from the outfield isn’t quite as clear.  Before spring training, it seemed like Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Lars Nootbar were locks to start in the outfield.  However, phenom Jordan Walker may force the Cards to change their plans.  After a strong spring, he has made the Opening Day roster.  They won’t keep him in the majors just to ride the pine, so he may be the starter in left field with O’Neill in center and Nootbar in right.  Carlson would be the backup in this scenario, but the Cards would try to get him at-bats against left-handers.

O’Neill is a bounce-back candidate, assuming he can stay healthy.  He hit .286 with 34 homers in 2021.  Last year he was injured and was able to manage only 14 homers in 334 at-bats to go along with a .228 batting average.  The Cards are expecting more production from him this year, which will serve to lengthen the lineup whether he bats second or sixth in the order. 

The Cardinals have the best offense in the National League Central.  If Walker is for real, Nootbar can live up to expectations, and O’Neill can stay on the field an already dangerous lineup will be even better.

Pitching

The Cards have a solid bullpen, headlined by closer Ryan Helsley, who notched 29 saves last year, and setup guy Giovanny Gallegos.  Fireballer Jordan Hicks has devastating stuff and could be a monster if he can improve his control.   

The real question for the team in 2023 is starting pitching.  The only starter the team signed in the offseason is long-time Cards veteran Adam Wainwright.  They also lost the services of Jose Quintana, who was a productive starter for the team last year. 

The projected rotation of Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, and Steven Matz does not exactly strike fear in the hearts of opponents and has numerous question marks. 

How much can Wainwright, who will be 42 in August, really contribute?  He will begin the year on the IL, and he seemed to break down a bit at the end of last year, which he attributed to mechanics but may have been related to his advanced age.  He never ceases to surprise me, but it is risky to expect the same level of performance he showed in the first half of last year, let alone for an entire season.  To start the season, he will likely be replaced by Jake Woodford in the rotation.

Flaherty has shown signs of top-of-the-rotation stuff but has been inconsistent even when he manages to stay on the field.  He has also not been very good this spring.  Mikolas is probably a third starter on most good teams.  I am OK with his recent contract extension, but he is not an ace.   Like Flaherty, Matz was hurt last year, and Montgomery started strong after arriving from the Yankees but is probably also in that three to four or five range as a starter.

There is some talent on the farm but it doesn’t appear that any of those young arms are ready to start in the majors.

The Cardinals could make a move at the trade deadline, but it is not clear that any potential No. 1’s or No. 2’s will be available, let alone for what the Cards are willing to offer.  The team certainly doesn’t need another 4 or 5 in its rotation.  Even assuming a desirable pitcher is available, after losing Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, and Randy Arozarena in recent years via trade the team may be reluctant to part with the prospects necessary to acquire a top starter.   

The competition

The Cardinals will likely win the NL Central.  The Reds and Pirates are awful, and the Cubs are still rebuilding.  The Brewers have a good rotation but questions on offense and are just not as good top to bottom as the Cards.

The teams the Cards could face in the playoffs are an entirely different story.  The Braves, Mets, Phillies, Padres, and Dodgers are all strong teams with better starting pitching than the Cards to go along with potent offenses.

The Braves and Padres have lineups that are better on paper than the Cardinals, and the Mets and Phillies are not far behind. 

The Braves picked up Sean Murphy to go along with a strong core of Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna, and Rookie of the Year Michael Harris.  The Padres' “Big Four” of Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and MVP runner-up Manny Machado is ridiculous. 

The Phillies are coming off a World Series appearance and picked up All-Star shortstop Trea Turner, although they will be without Bryce Harper for a good chunk of the year.  The Mets lineup is headlined by slugger Pete Alonzo and Francisco Lindor, as well as Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte.

The Cards may be better offensively than the Dodgers, but any lineup that includes Mookie Betts, Freddy Freeman, and Will Smith is a force to be reckoned with.

Where these teams are all better than the Cardinals is starting pitching. The Braves’ staff is led by Max Fried and rookie sensation Spencer Strider and complemented by Charlie Morton.  Their division rivals, the Phillies, counter with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, while the Mets can go with perennial Cy Young contenders Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

The two teams from the West also have strong rotations.  The Padres rotation is headlined by Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove.  Musgrove will miss the start of the year but should be back quickly.  The Dodgers lost Walker Buehler to Tommy John surgery but still have Julio Urias, Dustin May, and veteran Clayton Kershaw in the rotation.

Conclusion

The Cardinals can match up offensively with just about any team in the league but do not have an ace to match the top pitchers of their National League rivals.  You can talk all you want about bWar, exit velocity, launch angle, etc., but history shows that teams with strong starting pitching, led by an ace and a solid number two, are just more likely to succeed in the playoffs and win a pennant or World Series.

Anything can happen in a short series or the playoffs, and of course, the Cardinals have a chance to win the pennant and the Series.  However, I would like their chances much better if they had an ace at the top of their rotation.  If they can’t acquire one at the trade deadline, the most likely outcome for the Cards will be a division title followed by another early exit from the playoffs.