Looking at 4 mid-tier starters that the Cardinals' missed out on in free agency

The 2022-2023 offseason was an important one for the St. Louis Cardinals. The team had made the postseason the last few seasons but did not succeed, the 2024 rotation had only one pitcher signed (Steven Matz), and fans were hungry for the front office to make some signings. Payroll was rumored to be going up now that the team had recovered financially from COVID crowds and new revenue from Apple TV and other subscription services was being spread throughout the teams in the league.

Instead of capitalizing on these conditions and desires, John Mozeliak and Co. stayed put in the offseason, only signing Willson Contreras to replace the heralded Yadier Molina. The Front Office restated confidence in a resurgent Jack Flaherty, a confident Adam Wainwright, and strong leadership in Jordan Montgomery and Miles Mikolas.

Plenty of top-tier pitchers were available. Jacob DeGrom, Justin Verlander, and Carlos Rodon headlined the free-agent class. Mid-tier guys such as Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Bassit, Noah Syndergaard, and Zach Eflin were also available. While the organization was likely priced out of the high-end talent, it was more than achievable — and desirable — that the front office sign one of the other pitchers who were available. A signing this past offseason would have beefed up the starting rotation for this year in addition to providing coverage for 2024 and beyond, assuming the team wouldn't have resigned all three of Flaherty, Mikolas, and Montgomery.

Let's take a look at the contracts given out to the four mid-tier players and their performances thus far to see if the team was wise to avoid them, or if the team missed a golden opportunity to improve their rotation.

How four mid-tier starting pitchers that the Cardinals could have targeted have faired this year

Nathan Eovaldi

Nathan Eovaldi is a 33-year-old righty who has played for a variety of teams in his MLB career. Most of his success came as a starter for the Boston Red Sox from 2019-2022. While he did struggle with health, his postseason performances were strong and he was a good pitcher when healthy.

That last phrase is what probably gave the front office pause this offseason: "When healthy". Between Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz, and Jack Flaherty, Mozeliak had enough of "good when healthy" conversations.

Eovaldi primarily throws a 4-seam fastball, splitter, and cutter. He mixes in a curveball and slider, but he doesn't rely on these pitches much. His fastball sits around 95-96 MPH and doesn't generate too many whiffs (19.4%). Meanwhile, his splitter and curveball are pitches that have low batting average against numbers (.170 and .229, respectively) while also maintaining high whiff rates (35% and 36.2%, respectively). Eovaldi has a good mix of strikeouts (8.4 Ks/9) and ground balls (48.3%, 5% above league average).

Nathan Eovaldi signed a contract with the Texas Rangers worth $34 million over two years, with an additional player option for a third year should he meet particular numbers. Overall, the contract could reach three years and $63 million. This contract would have placed him cheaper than Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas' extensions, for context. I'm not arguing that Eovaldi should have been signed INSTEAD of Wainwright, as I believe keeping Waino was a good idea for the franchise; rather, I'm arguing Eovaldi would have been a reasonable price when looking at other contracts the team has distributed in the last few months to pitchers.

For the season, Eovaldi has racked up 2.5 WAR with an ERA of 2.59, 2.85 FIP, 0.982 WHIP, and 8.8 Ks/9. Most impressively, Eovaldi has two complete games and one shutout on the season through fourteen games. He has made it into the 6th inning in every one of his starts and has given up zero runs in five of his starts. These ace-level statistics would be great to have at the top of the rotation, particularly when you consider the contract he was given in the offseason.

Chris Bassitt

Chris Bassitt is just a few months older than Eovaldi, but he is at a comparable age in his career. Most of Bassitt's success was found in Oakland from 2015-2021. He was traded to the Mets in Spring 2022. Bassitt was always seen as a mid-rotation starter with a good ability to limit walks and hits.

For his career, Bassitt had an ERA of 3.51, a FIP of 3.94, a WHIP of 1.189, and a Ks/9 of 8.2. While his strikeouts are underwhelming, particularly for a team searching for strikeouts in a league that is making defense harder with stricter shift rules, his WHIP and FIP numbers are very strong for his career. Bassitt averaged right around 150 innings per season with 27 starts since he became a full-time starter in the rotations in Oakland and New York.

Early in December, Bassitt signed a three-year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. The contract, similar to Eovaldi's was worth $63 million overall. His AAV was $21 million per year. This would have placed Bassitt as one of the most expensive pitchers in the Cardinals' rotation. He would still have the highest AAV even after Mikolas's contract extension.

The Cardinals may have missed out on Bassitt. If you remove three of his fourteen starts (April 2nd, May 27th, and June 13th), Bassitt has been pitching at a near-ace level for staff. He has already logged 85 innings, more than any other Cardinals starter, and his WHIP of 1.129 would be tops in the Cardinals rotation. Bassitt has shown a propensity to limit hits and walks, despite struggling with home runs (1.6 HRs/9) and not having many strikeouts (7.9 Ks/9). While he has been up and down this season, having Bassitt as a starter behind Mikolas and Montgomery would lengthen the rotation that much more and give the team a strong fourth starter in the postseason, however bleak that prospect may be right now.

Zach Eflin

The last mid-tier free agent this past offseason was Zach Eflin. While he may not be as much of a household name compared to players like Nathan Eovaldi and Noah Syndergaard, Eflin can surely measure up to them in career success.

Eflin was the youngest of this group of pitchers, as he just turned 29 in early April. Formerly a first-round draft pick, Eflin has pitched solely for the Philadelphia Phillies. He has seen time as both a reliever and starter, but primarily as a starter. This past offseason, the Tampa Bay Rays signed him to a contract worth $40 million over three years. At an AAV of $11 million, this would have put him in line with players such as Steven Matz and Jordan Montgomery. This very reasonable salary would not have been a stretch for the front office.

For his career, Eflin touts a 4.37 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.266 WHIP, and strikes out nearly eight batters every nine innings. These numbers scream middle rotation arm. While he may not be overpowering, Eflin provides relatively strong innings and will absolutely not put a team out of contention after his turn on the mound. However, he has only pitched more than 130 innings once in his career, and that was back in 2019 when he pitched 32 games. Various knee and back injuries have hampered his ability to pitch many innings in a season.

Many teams avoided Eflin for his injury history and over questions regarding his role — was he a pure starter, a swingman, or strictly a middle-relief pitcher? When the Tampa Bay Rays signed Eflin, it appeared to be a bit of a steal. Eflin had just pitched admirably in the postseason, the Rays would have him from ages 29 to 32, and the dollar value was less than any other strong starter signed up to this point in the offseason.

In 2023, Eflin has pitched 71.1 innings with an ERA of 3.28, a WHIP of 0.995 (!!!), a FIP of 3.22, and he strikes out one batter per inning (9.1 Ks/9). These numbers, excluding his total innings, would automatically place him as the best pitcher in the Cardinals' rotation at the moment. His ERA+ of 122 is a very strong number that I'm sure the loyal fans of the Cardinals would love to see.

Zach Eflin, at his price and for his performances this season, is a clear miss by the Front Office. While he wasn't as publicly discussed as the other pitchers mentioned in this article, he was still a pitcher that should have been on teams' radars, particularly the Cardinals. This contract would have given them an affordable, near-ace-level starter for this year and fortified the rotation for the next two years, while the major league team waits on prospects such as Tink Hence, Cooper Hjerpe, and Gordan Graceffo.