Let's talk about the recent resurgence of Cardinals' Steven Matz

Steven Matz is making his case to be a member of the 2024 rotation. Fans are apologizing for the way they've treated him in the past, and he's looking dominant on a regular basis. Yet, Matz was in the bullpen a month ago. Many wanted him cut over the offseason. His contract has been repeatedly cited as a blunder by the Cardinals' front office. How did we get here, and how can we untangle this garbled mess of frustration, disappointment, and affection? What happens next for Steven Matz? To answer these questions, we'll have to start from the beginning of Matz's tenure in St. Louis.

Doomed from the start?

Steven Matz has had a rough time with the Cardinals. Matz and the Cardinals agreed to a four-year deal worth 44 MM prior to the 2022 season. He was coming off of a strong season in Toronto (14-7 3.82 ERA) and the contract seemed reasonable. Matz was a talented coin flip. He had trouble staying healthy but had tantalizing potential. Matz made his Cardinal debut on April 10th against Pittsburgh. It couldn't have been any worse. He pitched just three innings, and allowed a whopping seven runs on nine hits. His five strikeouts were lost in the shuffle. After just one start, Matz was already building a reputation as a bust.

He was better after that, pitching to a 2.18 ERA over his next four starts, three of which were scoreless. But he had another implosion in early May. This time, Matz completed just two frames, allowing eight runs, though there was some bad luck involved, as the opposing lineup managed just five hits. Three of those five left the yard and Matz's ERA climbed over 7.00. It was, in the minds of many fans, official. He was a horrible signing. After two more solid but unspectacular starts, Matz was knocked out of his 10th start with an injury to his pitching arm. He would miss over two months of action.

A tale of two halves in 2023

Matz had a brutal first two months of 2023. Through ten starts, his ERA sat at 5.60. He picked up his sixth loss of the season on May 24th. Unlike the 2022 team, this year's Cardinals needed Matz desperately. The pitching staff was surprisingly shallow, and Matz's struggles only compounded issues elsewhere. He was demoted to the bullpen that week. Matz again delivered good production in the pen, leading many to believe he could remain there. He pitched to a 2.81 ERA across eight appearances.

But the Cardinals had other plans for Matz. Their depth was nonexistent, and Liberatore's struggles meant Matz would need to move back to the rotation. On July 9th, Matz made his first start in six weeks. He was dominant. He allowed zero earned runs, struck out nine, and helped the Cardinals to a win in Chicago against the White Sox.

Since then, Matz is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA. He's striking out more than a batter per inning and is limiting walks. He's fixed his home run problem from 2022, although that wasn't really his problem this year in the first place. Perhaps most importantly, in games Matz has pitched in since July 9th, the team is 5-1. In the lone loss, Matz twirled six scoreless innings and the bullpen and offense let him down. This has led numerous fans to publicly apologize to Matz on Twitter!

Where Does This Leave Matz for 2024?

Matz isn't always going to pitch this well. Almost nobody maintains a 1.65 ERA for longer than a few months. But it's encouraging to see him fixing issues. He's allowing fewer home runs and softer contact. Matz ranks in the top 10% of pitchers at preventing barrels, balls hit hard at ideal launch angles. The lower home run rate isn't luck. It's the result of changes in Matz's arsenal and strategy.

Matz's fastball has been outstanding over this stretch, and the strong command allows him to throw his changeup much more effectively. He's mixing up these looks more often too. One of Matz's most glaring issues before was fastball location. He threw his fastball high, and he threw his changeup low. This made it easier for hitters to distinguish between the two pitches. Now, Matz is more effectively changing levels and speeds, keeping opponents off balance. All of this coincides with improved command of his curveball, which is landing in the zone more often than ever.

Matz is even making it into Pitching Ninja's videos now! He may actually have the nastiest strikeout stuff of any Cardinals starter right now. His season numbers also look solid. He now has a 3.91 ERA and has been an above-average pitcher. That's better than plenty of other big names, including Chris Bassit, Nestor Cortes, Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, and many more.

To top it all off, Matz's $11 million salary is significantly lower than any of the aforementioned pitchers are making. Maybe, the Steven Matz deal will end up being a bargain. $11 million is low for reliable rotation pieces. Whether Matz can become that is unknown. The longer this stretch continues, the more encouraging it will be. For now, it's obvious that Matz will be part of the 2024 rotation. Where he pitches in the rotation is up to him and his success.