First, let's take a look at the last two managers, their tenures, and their firings to see if the front office is apt to fire Marmol. Mike Matheny was hired to be the manager of the Cardinals after Tony La Russa's departure in 2011. He managed the team for six and a half years before being fired after 93 games in 2018. He took the team to the World Series in 2013 and had a100-win season in 2015. However, the Cardinals failed to make the playoffs in 2016 and 2017, leading to frustration in the front office. He was fired after leading the team to a 47-46 record in 2018. His overall record with the Cardinals was 591-474, good for a .555 winning percentage.
Mike Shildt was hired to replace Matheny in the 2018 season. Upon his takeover, the Cardinals went 41-28 to close out the 2018 season. The team missed the postseason, but Shildt showed his potential as a manager in his 69 games that season. He then led the team to the playoffs the next three years, 2019, 2020, and 2021. None of the teams made it past the first round, however. Excluding the COVID 2020 season, Shildt had an overall record of 222-171, good for a .565 winning percentage. Shildt was dismissed due to disagreements he had with the front office. Management wanted a greater focus on analytics while Shildt was a more traditional manager.
Oliver Marmol has been the manager of the St. Louis Cardinals for just over a year and a half. Marmol, a former bench coach on the team, was promoted due to his philosophical alignment with the front office, particulary John Mozeliak. He was the youngest manager in the league at the time of his hiring, and he appeared to have ample support inside the organization. Since his hiring, Marmol has a record of 137-122, good for a .529 winning percentage. We are at a similar point this year in the season as the team was in 2018 but with a much worse record. At the 93-game mark this year, the team was 40-53. It was quite surprising (and simultaneously not surprising given Marmol's support in the FO) that he was not fired at that point.