If the Cardinals don't re-sign Paul Goldschmidt, these 5 players could replace him

It's so good to have the St. Louis Cardinals back on the field and preparing for the 2024 season. It's fun to dream and speculate about what the club can do each offseason, but getting on the field and playing baseball is what matters most.

While much of the chatter the first few days of camp has been around some of the Cardinals' young talent, injury concerns, and the surprise Brandon Crawford signing, the contract status of Paul Goldschmidt continues to loom large for the Cardinals' future.

Goldschmidt and the Cardinals have both pressed pause on a potential contract extension for different reasons. Goldschmidt, whose career is closer to the end than the beginning, wants to see if the Cardinals are back to being a contender, and would surely like to bounce back in 2024 to increase his value. The Cardinals, like Goldschmidt, want to see what his play on the field shows before committing to him on a multi-year deal. While Goldschmidt wasn't himself last year, he was still good at the plate, but the Cardinals still want to see if he's trending down or ready to rebound.

While it feels likely that both signs will find a way to keep Goldschmidt in St. Louis for the next few seasons, the Cardinals have quietly raised multiple options that could replace Goldschmidt in 2025 if this is indeed his last season with the club. The club is certainly not broadcasting those options right now, but it's easy to identify those names if you look at the roster dynamics.

While it's hard to see right now who the favorite to play first base would be if the Cardinals lost Goldschmidt, there are five different paths I could see them going.

Alec Burleson

When it comes to the 2024 season, the Cardinals have put Alec Burleson in a weird spot. They have been high on his bat for two years now, and although the on-field results weren't there in 2023, his expected numbers at the plate showed he was among the unluckiest players in all of baseball.

But ever since the Matt Carpenter signing, it's become less and less clear what Burleson's role with the club would look like in 2024. Since the Brandon Crawford signing, it now looks like Burleson is on the outside looking in when it comes to the Cardinals roster unless someone like Tommy Edman has to begin the year on the injured list.

Even with Burleson's situation getting muddy, I don't believe that rules him out of the conversation to play first base going forward. A major reason why his playing time is so cloudy is because that's the position he is best suited for right now. While Burleson has put in work to improve as an outfielder defensively, the club likely views him as a first baseman in a perfect world.

With Goldschmidt playing most days there and now Carpenter able to fill in there as well, it seems unlikely that Burleson gets significant playing time. Even with the designated hitter spot, there are not a lot of at-bats to go around there after guys like Goldschmidt, Donovan, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Gorman getting starts there.

Like Donovan, I would not call Burleson the favorite to play first base if Goldschmidt left, but he is a viable option and would likely be considered if he's not used as a trade chip before then.

Nolan Gorman

Here's where things get really interesting. The Cardinals have second-base depth galore with Gorman, Donovan, Edman, and Thomas Saggese. Gorman is arguably the weakest defensively of the bunch, and his big power bat would profile really nicely at first base.

While it's fun to think about having a second baseman who has the potential to hit 40 or more home runs in a season, it's much more fun to dream about Gorman remaining healthy on a year-to-year basis. His back issues are well documented at this point, and while he's been doing work to remove that concern, it's still something the Cardinals would be wise to be careful regarding.

Moving Gorman to first base may be best for him defensively and health-wise long-term, and could even unlock him offensively if he's able to feel healthy and comfortable on an everyday basis. The Cardinals would have no problem at all filling his playing time at second base or the few spot starts he gets at third base.

In all honesty, this, or moving Donovan to first base, is probably the best route toward getting those two and Saggese into the lineup on a consistent basis. If Gorman starts at first base regularly, one of Saggese or Donovan can play second base while the other is the designated hitter. That also saves the Cardinals a lot of salary, which they then could allocate the money they would have spent on Goldschmidt toward starting pitching help.

Remember, this is 2025 we are talking about, so this would be Gorman's third full big league season, and others from the young core may have developed more as well. Gorman's bat already has the potential to step in at a premium offensive position like first base, but by the time this scenario takes shape, he may have the track record to support the succession of the future Hall of Famer at first base as well.

Willson Contreras

I told you things were getting interesting! Let me start by saying that I'm not suggesting this should happen, or telling you that it's in the Cardinals plans right now, but if you think about it, it could make a lot of sense.

Let me start by debunking something that you may be thinking - Willson Contreras is a great bat for a catcher, but first base is a different story. Wrong. He'd also been an excellent offensive first baseman. Don't believe me? Let's compare him to other first basemen offensively around the league.

Contreras' 127 wRC+ would have been fourth among all qualified first basemen in 2023, and while his counting stats may be lower than many of the top offensive first basemen, that has a lot to do with the fact he only got 428 at-bats in 2023 since he's a primary catcher. If you were to play Contreras at first base and get 150+ games a year from him rather than 120 or so games, you'd see him rack up even more home runs and runs batted in. You'd have to imagine he'd swing the bat better more often as well not squatting behind home plate for an entire season.

The emergence of Ivan Herrera plays a large role in this as well. If Herrera carries his strong 2023 campaign and electric offseason into the 2024 season, the Cardinals may want to explore ways for him to play more often. The easiest solution is having Contreras slot in at designated hitter more often, but if the first base job opens up, that can make a lot of sense too.

I could also see a world where Contreras plays a mixture of first base, catcher, and designated hitter in future years, allowing the Cardinals to mix and match their lineups throughout the season based on health and who the hot hands are. Again, I'm not making a prediction here, but Contreras would surely be a name to watch.

Someone from outside the organization

While I'd bet that the Cardinals would use one of the aforementioned options, there's always the possibility that they could sign or trade for a new first baseman next offseason.

I know I left out Luken Baker, but I just don't think the Cardinals are envisioning a world where he takes over first base for them. Thomas Saggese is a name that has been thrown around and I could see happening, but I think they'd rather use him as a utility infielder than stick him at first base. That's also a lot of pressure to put on his bat to perform if that's his new position.

I also do not see the Cardinals moving Jordan Walker to first base. They've repeatedly shot down the idea and believe he has what it takes to become at least an average outfielder defensively. It's also not just a given that he can play first base well. It's not a natural position for him either, and while the transition to first base works well for some players, plenty of players have proven it's not an easy position to play.

Next offseason, Pete Alonso headlines a strong class of first baseman, as he will be joined by the likes of Goldschmidt and Christian Walker, while the likes of Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins, and Anthony Rizzo could opt out of their contracts as well. The obvious play would be a reunion with Goldschmidt, but if that is not working out, any of those names could come into St. Louis and replace Goldschmidt in the lineup.

The following offseason, names like Vlad Guerrero Jr., Josh Naylor, Ty France, Luis Arraez, Kyle Schwarber, and Joc Pederson all hit the market, so any one of those guys could be available in a trade next offseason if their club is looking to recoup value before losing them.

While this is the least likely of options for St. Louis, it's still possible, and let's be honest, it's only February. A lot can and will happen between now and next offseason, so who knows where the Cardinals will be by then? It still feels like Goldschmidt will finish his career as a Cardinal, but we'll have to see how things play out as the season goes on.