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How the Cardinals can play spoiler for playoff-hopeful teams in September
With one month left in the season, the Cardinals have the chance to play spoiler for potential playoff teams. Which teams' seasons can the Cardinals impact the greatest in the final month?
There is one month left in the baseball season. In a normal season for the Cardinals, fans will be counting down Magic Numbers, looking at potential playoff matchups, and celebrating a division championship. The 2023 season, however, is presenting a different case. This year, rather than avoiding season-ending spoiler teams, the Cardinals can instead play spoiler for other teams in baseball. Young players such as Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Matthew Liberatore, and Zack Thompson will try and make a name for themselves; therefore, they will be pushing heavily to compete at a high level.
Of the 8 series left to play, 7 of them have playoff implications for the Cardinals' opponents. St. Louis travels to Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Baltimore throughout the next week. They then see Philadelphia and Milwaukee at home, followed by a road trip to San Diego and then back to Milwaukee. The Redbirds finish the season with a home series against the Reds again.
Some of those teams have locked in their position in the playoffs (Phillies, Brewers, and Baltimore), one has virtually locked up the division (Atlanta), and another is chasing a Wild Card berth (Reds). While the Cardinals can't kick any of these teams out of the playoffs, they have the ability to shake up the playoff picture heavily.
The Cardinals have the ability to impact the American League East and the National League Wild Card by season's end. Winning games against in-division rivals and interleague opponents could really shake up the playoff picture by the end of September.
Let's take a look a three ways in which the Cardinals can play spoiler to end the season.
Cincinnati Reds out of the Wild Card
The Reds and the Cardinals go head-to-head 6 more times before the end of the year. As of the beginning of the day on September 5th, the Reds are tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Due to tiebreakers, the Reds would actually be out of the playoffs, all else equal.
Cincinnati may want to take advantage of a weak schedule to close the year (9 games against Detroit, New York Mets, and Pittsburgh), but the Cardinals could very easily ruin the young Reds' fun. The 6 remaining games will be split evenly between Great American Ballpark and Busch Stadium. Should the Cardinals at least split the 6 games, the Reds' path to the playoffs may become harder.
According to Tankathon, the Reds have the 6th easiest schedule remaining while the Diamondbacks have the 9th easiest schedule, per opponents winning percentage. For what it's worth, the Cardinals have the hardest schedule remaining. Should the Cardinals flip the script and make the Reds' final month more challenging, they could keep Cincinnati out of the playoffs after an exciting regular season.
Baltimore Orioles lose the division lead
The darling of the 2023 season, the Baltimore Orioles have been quite dominant. They have won game after game in a very tough American League East. As of September 5th, the Orioles hold a 3.5-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays. It appears as though the Orioles will run away with the division crown, especially since the Tampa Bay Rays have experienced a glut of injuries in the past month.
With only three games against Baltimore, it will be tough for the Cardinals to remove them from the division lead, but it is possible the Cardinals at least lower the confidence of the young studs in Baltimore. The Cardinals and Orioles play each other for three games from September 11th through September 13th in Baltimore. Should the Cardinals dethrone the Baltimore Orioles, they would then slip from the top seed in the American League to the top Wild Card team.
Being a Wild Card team means you play at least two more games in the playoffs, and you have fewer rest days before the Divisional Series. A young team with innings caps on their pitchers may love a few off days before the second round of the playoffs. Tampa Bay has one of the toughest remaining schedules, while Baltimore is in the middle of the pack; the Cardinals could complicate the AL playoff picture mightily should they sweep the Orioles, however unlikely that may be.
Philadelphia Phillies loses home-field advantage
The past two years have been energizing for the city of Philadelphia. This year, the average attendance for games in Philly is around 38,000 people, up by 10,000 from 2022 and up 5,000 from 2019. The team has risen from the dregs of the NL East to a perennial contender. Currently, the Phillies hold the top Wild Card spot and sit in second place in the NL East with a record of 76-61 (14. 5 games behind the Braves, which says a lot about how dominant Atlanta has been).
The Phillies and the Cardinals face off from September 15th through September 17th in St. Louis. Both teams have an off day on the 14th, so they will be well-rested. When these two teams faced each other in late August, the Phillies swept the Cardinals with some dominant pitching performances. Hopefully, the Cardinals can get some payback this time around.
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Tankathon places Philadelphia in the top 10 hardest schedules remaining. With just a 2.5-game lead over the Cubs (12th easiest schedule), it is plausible the Phillies get leapfrogged in the Wild Card race. The St. Louis Cardinals can start that process with a strong series against the Fighting Phils. With a sweep or even series victory, the NL Wild Card, which is already crowded, can get even messier very quickly. Falling into the second Wild Card spot means the Phillies will lose home-field advantage in the Wild Card Round.