How concerned should Cardinals fans be about Sonny Gray's lackluster summer?

It's safe to say that the St. Louis Cardinals expected more out of Sonny Gray this season, and yet, I don't think things are nearly as bad as some fans seem to believe.

After Gray's blow-up start against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night, he is now sporting a 3.93 ERA in his 22 starts, far from the 2.79 ERA Gray posted last year as he finished runner-up to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting.

Even so, what if I told you that, under the hood, most of Gray's performance with the Cardinals in 2024 is very comparable to that Cy Young caliber performance last year?

In 2024, Gray actually has a higher chase%, whiff%, BB%, and is one of the best in baseball in K%, which are all massive improvements over his 2023 campaign. He has not seen a drop off in velocity, and the only true regression he has to this point is his barrel%, which explains why he's given up so many home runs this year.

Last year, Gray had an unsustainable 5.2% HR/FB rate, something we knew would regress in 2024. Well, that HR/FB rate has skyrocketed this year, although some of that is inflated by 10 of the 17 home runs he has allowed coming in just three of his starts.

Still, if you look at metrics that indicate success, such as K%, BB%, FIP, BAA, and WAR, well, you might be surprised how well Gray ranks in all of those.

So what's the deal with Sonny Gray? How concerned should fans be regarding his performance this year? Does having an ERA close to 4.00 at this point in the season mean signing him was a mistake? Is Gray's contract destined to be a major flop?

While Sonny Gray's production has been underwhelming, it is not time for Cardinals fans to panic

At the end of the day, it is production that matters most. Gray can be a strikeout machine on the mound and have the nicest-looking FIP, but if he keeps having starts like this, it is going to be hard to get Cardinals fans to buy into him as a front-line starter.

If the season ended today, I would be disappointed with how Gray's performance has gone. I'd probably grade his season as a B- or C+ compared to expectations. Underlying metrics do not win ballgames. He needs to be better. But the question I'm looking to tackle is not whether or not he's been frustrating at times this year, the question is whether or not fans should be concerned about Gray's ability moving forward.

Frankly, it's not hard for me to watch Gray pitch, look at the metrics, and come to the conclusion that Gray was a good signing for St. Louis and someone they can rely on at the front of their rotation moving forward. Frankly, the bigger issue is the lack of a second front-line starter, not the fact that Gray is a guy they are relying on to fill one of those roles.

Gray has to figure out how to keep the ball in the ballpark though. There is no way around that. If he doesn't improve in that area down the stretch and in the final two years of his contract, then the numbers will not be all that favorable for him, especially if he begins to see a decline in his ability to strike hitters out and limit walks.

But those two qualities right there, swing-and-miss along with not giving free passes, are major reasons why I feel good about Gray when he goes against good lineups and is opposed by another top-end starter. Limiting walks helps to limit the potential damage done against you, and strikeouts are an excellent way to get out of tricky spots and not even let the ball get into play in the first place.

If the Cardinals want any hope of a postseason berth this year, they need those encouraging metrics to translate into front-line production once again. If it doesn't, the Cardinals are likely looking at missing the playoffs for a second straight season.