Here is who the Cardinals should target for each of their 5 "to-do list" items

The St. Louis Cardinals are just days away from beginning one of the most important offseasons in franchise history.

While that seems like a jarring statement, it's true. How they decide to go about their business this offseason will have major ramifications on their ability to win in the near term and long term, and how the John Mozeliak era will be remembered in St. Louis. They have to come up big this offseason, and so far both their public comments and reporting about internal conversations seem to indicate they know this.

The Cardinals' offseason to-do list seems to be finalized now, as Katie Woo of The Athletic reported that they are looking to add three starting pitchers and two high-leverage bullpen arms. If that is the case, I think it's fair to breakdown their five agenda items like this:

To-do list items
1. Top-of-the-rotation starter
2. Second front-line starter
3. A third starter who is better than Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz
4. High-leverage reliever via free agency
5. High-leverage reliever via trade

This should be what their list looks like, and it's beginning to appear that way. If the Cardinals are going to be a legitimate threat in the National League again, they must achieve both quality and quantity this offseason. A tall task for sure, but one they must rise to.

I think we can all agree this is a good game plan, but who exactly could fill each of those items? Let's take a look at players that the Cardinals should target in each category to have a successful offseason.

Item #1: Top-of-the-rotation starter

Who they should target: Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dylan Cease, *Sonny Gray

*Sonny Gray will also find his name in item two, but can pass as an item #1 if the rest of the items are strong.

The first order of business for the Cardinals is the most important task of all, grabbing a starter who can lead their rotation in 2024.

Getting three starters who can slot in as their three best guys will do wonders for their ability to win ballgames in 2024, but the quality of their number one starter will set the tone for how legit of a threat they are when it comes to October and beyond.

We can all debate whether or not Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dylan Cease, or Sonny Gray are legit number-one starters in today's game. There is no true "ace" available this offseason, but each of those guys can go toe-to-toe with another team's number one starter can put the Cardinals in a position to win.

Nola feels the most realistic of the bunch, as for a long time now he's looked the part of a Cardinals' front-line starter. He eats innings, knows how to pitch in big games, and carries himself like a professional. If Jim Bowden is right about his contract predictions, he'll be looking at something in the five-year, $125 million range, which is more than manageable for the Cardinals. I could see him getting something in the eight-year, $200 million range if his market really explodes, but I imagine it'll be lower than that number.

Yamamoto would be an awesome target for the Cardinals, and I do believe they'll make a strong push for him, but it seems like other large market teams are really in on him as well. I don't really see them going after Blake Snell, nor do I think he'll prioritize St. Louis as well.

Cease is an interesting name to watch, as I think they should avoid him if he'll require someone like Nolan Gorman, but if they are open to a prospect package instead, I'd be all ears. Cease has the stuff of a true number-one starter and proved it in 2022, but is coming off a down 2023 with two years of control left. He's very valuable, but I'd be hesitant to give up the core bats if I'm the Cardinals.

I'll address Gray further on the next slide, but I don't think it's a terrible thing if he ends up being their guy from this tier. What it would mean though is they have to get a really good second starter as well, and probably an overqualified third starter to add to the mix to compensate for missing out on the top guys available.

Item #2: Second front-line starter

Who they should target: Sonny Gray, Tyler Glasnow, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez

The Cardinals have to be extremely aggressive with the top two starters they acquire. They need a one-two punch they can rely on in October, but it's also part of building a strong regular season club as well. Having two guys you can rely on every fifth day to pitch at a high level takes a lot of pressure off the rest of the rotation, puts less milage on the bullpen, and helps the lineup have room to breathe and not feel like they have to score 8+ runs a game to win.

Sonny Gray feels like the perfect guy for this spot, as he has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball the last two seasons and has been a top 15 pitcher in baseball since he came into the league. He'll be 34 before the start of the 2024 season, so regression is expected, but even so, he'll still be more than capable of being a number two starter. He's likely going to finish second in AL Cy Young voting this year, and was 54% above league average when it came to ERA+. Gray wants to be closer to Nashville and is looking for a short-term deal, so it seems like a perfect fit.

Glasnow would be an excellent addition for the Cardinals, and honestly, my perfect offseason has them signing their number one and two starters while trading for Glasnow as well (more on that in a future story). Glasnow has injury risk and a large $25 million salary for 2024, meaning the cost to acquire him should be significantly less than the talent he has.

In a contract year, Glasnow is going to want to prove he's worth a long-term deal, so I expect him to be on the field as often as possible. Even if you only expect 20-23 starts from him, that's still a massive upgrade to the rotation, and if he's healthy in October, he's a legitimate weapon against any offense.

A reunion with Montgomery could be in the cards, as he's continued his great form since being trade from St. Louis and has been a key contributor for the Rangers on their way to a potential World Series title. Rodriguez is another guy with World Series pedigree, and has been really good in Detroit and will be looking to cash in this offseason.

Item #4: High-leverage reliever via free agency

Who they should target: Yuki Matsui, Jordan Hicks, Shelby Miller, Robert Stephenson, Reynaldo Lopez, Liam Hendricks, Brett Suter

When it comes to relief options on the free agent market, there are a variety of names the Cardinals could add to their bullpen that would help create a dynamic group for St. Louis in the highest-pressure spots.

Yuki Matsui is heavily linked to the Cardinals and is the youngest player to ever hit 200 career saves in Japan. He's got great strikeout stuff even though he doesn't throw hard, and should not require a large contract to bring into the fold.

A reunion with Jordan Hicks or Shelby Miller would make a ton of sense too. Hicks really found his grove as a closer for the Cardinals during the summer months before being traded to Toronto for their stretch run. He has some of the best stuff in all of baseball and is still young as well. Miller has enjoyed a career resurgence as a reliever, posting a 1.71 ERA in 42 innings for the Dodgers this year.

Robert Stephenson, Reynaldo Lopez, Liam Hendricks, and Brett Suter would all provide various levels of experience to the Cardinals bullpen, and each of them are guys they could trust in big spots. Josh Hader is far and away the best reliever on the market, but I just doubt the Cardinals would give him the kind of contract he is going to get this winter.

If the Cardinals can focus on one of these relievers on a short-term deal with not a crazy high AAV, it would still allow them to make all of the other moves they need to make while strengthening their bullpen in the process.

Item #5: High-leverage reliever via trade

Who they should target: James Karinchak, Garrett Crochet, Daniel Bard, Jason Adam, Carlos Estevez, Justin Lawrence

This list is hard to predict at this stage in the offseason, but with the amount of ancillary pieces the Cardinals have on their roster, they should be able to add bullpen help through trade as well.

Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, Luken Baker, and Andrew Knizner all feel like candidates here for a trade, where the Cardinals could get a valuable reliever in a straight swap. They could also choose to use a prospect instead to acquire an arm.

James Karinchak would be an interesting name to watch in my opinion, as the Guardians have two years left of control on him and could capitalize on his value this offseason by moving him. All of these relievers are purely speculative at this point, but could fit the bill as one of the Cardinals' four high-leverage relievers.

If the Cardinals can grab a guy from each of these categories this offseason, they'll have accomplished what they needed to in order to put the club back into contention. Not just for a division title, but to be an actual threat in October. Time will tell if the Cardinals can make this plan a reality.