Here is what the perfect offseason would look like for the St. Louis Cardinals

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The St. Louis Cardinals have a long and active offseason ahead of them in their efforts to rebuild their pitching staff. The checklist of three starting pitchers and two relievers will take aggressive and creative moves to pull off, but it's more than possible if the Cardinals truly commit to their goals.

Skepticism is understood, as historically, the Cardinals do not spend big or make multiple big-time moves in any given offseason. Every couple of years they will swing a trade for a star or sign a Willson Contreras, but otherwise, they tend to be pretty conservative on both the free agent and trade market.

In this story, I will be detailing what I believe the perfect offseason for the St. Louis Cardinals would look like. Here are a few caveats off of the top...

1. This is the perfect offseason, not the most likely offseason. It's an optimistic look at what the Cardinals can do. So no, this story won't make a case for them signing three of the top guys and trading for an ace, because that's just not realistic. But this story will also keep the Cardinals' eyes aimed high, so the eventual payroll they will end up with here is on the high end of what they could possibly do.

2. The Cardinals' offseason moves are all directly linked to each other. Depending on what free agent they sign first, it will directly impact the other starting pitchers they could look at signing or trading for, and vice versa. This makes it extremely difficult to truly predict what the Cardinals will do, but this is my ideal path for them.

3. There are some free agent and trade targets who do not make this list that I would LOVE for the Cardinals to sign, but I took the approach of aiming for the best overall offseason, and not just aiming for the free agent or trade target I like the most. Given the implications of each move, I felt like this string of events would be the best possible scenario for the Cardinals between now and February.

4. Lastly, this story isn't trying to convince you that they will do all of these things. Instead, it's trying to expose any false narratives that the Cardinals' can't swing big this offseason, and instead calls them to a higher level of accountability, rather than being okay with them settling.

Let's take a moment to set the groundwork for what kind of budget they are looking at here.

For this story, I'm leaning heavily on the reporting of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold, and the reported payroll the Cardinals have as of today, as well as what he thinks they have access to in terms of salary flexibility.

In a recent chat he did at STLToday.com, Goold was asked about how much the Cardinals have to spend. He placed their current payroll somewhere between $136m-$141m when you include arbitration raises. Let's roll with $141 million to be conservative here. He then pointed out that if they are serious about competing with the best of the National League, they should get their payroll up to or slightly above $200 million by the end of the offseason. Let's roll with $200 million here. Again, this is an optimistic look at what the Cardinals can do, as they may choose to sit closer to $190 million instead.

If they currently are spending $141 million on their roster and can spend up to $200 million, that gives them about $59 million to spend in free agency. But there are a few more ways they can free up some more money as well through non-tenders and trades. Using MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections, I will have the Cardinals free up another $14.5 million by non-tendering Dakota Hudson, Andrew Knizner, Jake Woodford, John King, and Jacob Barnes (who they did after Goold's comments), as well as trading away Tyler O'Neill (more on that later).

$59 million in current spending available plus an additional $14.5 million through non-tenders and trades puts the Cardinals' potential spending here at $73.5 million this offseason if they reach a payroll of $200 million. For the sake of being a bit more conservative, let's cut that spending down even more to $70 million.

With $70 million in budget available and the offseason in front of me, here is how I would orcherstrate the perfect offseason for the St. Louis Cardinals.

1. Sign Aaron Nola

I would love Yoshinobu Yamamoto as much as the next person. His eventual contract feels impossible to predict. Some think he could end up with an annual salary south of $20 million, while others see him getting $30 million or more annually. I'm going to air on the side that teams are aggressive in their pursuit of him, meaning he gets a $200 million or more contract plus an additional $30 million or more in posting fees.

If the Cardinals did that, I'd be over the moon, but I honestly think they can have an extremely exciting offseason without going after Yamamoto, and it starts with Aaron Nola.

For a long time now, the Cardinals and Nola have felt like a match made in heaven. Nola is one of the few front-line starters in today's game who also operates like a workhorse. Yes, his 2023 season was a down year as a whole, but he made some adjustments to his mechanics in mid-September, and it resulted in an excellent playoff run from Nola with the Phillies.

Keith Law just did his top-50 free agents this offseason over at The Athletic (paid subscription required), and Law ranked him as the third-best free agent behind Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger, calling him a "hidden ace, someone who'll take off for whoever signs him".

That's high praise from a talent evaluator like Law, and makes Nola and even more attractive fit for the Cardinals. Not only is he a guy who they can expect innings from, but he is also a guy who will give those innings at a high level, and shows up when it matters most in the postseason.

With every move, the cost to acquire someone plays a large role in how attractive of target they are. Sure, Shohei Ohtani is easily the best target out there, but at his price point, it would make little sense for St. Louis to pursue him. Now, when it comes to someone like Nola, his price point also makes him a worthwhile number one target.

There's some talk of Nola getting $30 million or more a year annually, but unless he's signing a short-term deal, I think that's unlikely. Most insiders have Nola looking at a deal around $25 million a season, in about the five to six year range.

Let's assume his market is competitive. The Cardinals could up the annual value up a few million a year to seal the deal, but in this scenario, I'm going to have them add an extra year to his contract and bring him in on a seven-year, $175 million contract. That makes me uncomfortable, and I'm sure it would make the Cardinals uncomfortable too, but ultimately, it's what they need to do in order to get back to having World Series aspirations.

Move #1 - Cardinals sign Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $175 million contract

2. Sign Sonny Gray

I love the idea of Sonny Gray coming to St. Louis. He's not an ace, but he can certainly pitch like one when needed, and a certain World Series champion just proved having guys like that in your rotation can win you a championship.

The Texas Rangers were just crowned the 2023 World Series Champions on the backs of Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery. Sure, they had Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, but deGrom did not throw a single pitch in the postseason and Scherzer had a small impact on their chances.

No one would have called Eovaldi or Montgomery number one or number two starters before the season, but they had the stuff to pitch up to that and did so what things mattered the most. Are they viewed as number two starters now? Probably. But they are not the classic front-line starters we tend to think about.

Sonny Gray was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in 2023, making 32 starts during the year with a 2.79 ERA and 2.83 FIP over 184 innings of work. Gray is set to finish second in Cy Young voting in the American League and has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball since debuting in 2013.

Regression is likely in some way shape or form. He'll be 34 in 2023 and was truly pitching like an ace for the entire season, and the Cardinals should not sign him and expect him to be that good again. But banking on Gray to be your number two starter in 2024 feels like a really good bet.

Gray's 2023 season was worth $42.3 million according to FanGraphs' "dollars" stat, which converts a player's WAR into an expected free agent value. Gray will likely be commanding something in the $20m-$24m price range for three years this offseason. That means if Gray is even half as good as he was in 2023, he'll be worth the contract he is getting. Sign me up for that!

Remember, all of these moves are linked together. One of the concerns with Gray is that he doesn't go deep into games, and the potential for regression. Well, with Aaron Nola now leading the staff, the Cardinals have an innings eater at the top-of-the-rotation and back-end of the rotation in Nola and Mikolas, which allows them to go after a guy like Gray who may only give them five to six innings, but they'll be five to six innings where he allows two runs or less most times out.

Move #2 - Cardinals sign Sonny Gray to a three-year, $69 million contract.

3. Trade for Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber is not an ace anymore, but he's still a valuable starter in this league, even if saw a decline in stuff during the 2023 season. If the Cardinals were targeting him as one of their two best starters, I'd have concerns, but grabbing him as the third starter would be a huge win for St. Louis, especially with his low trade value.

Bieber only threw 128 innings in 2023 due to right elbow inflation that had him out most of the second half but was able to come back and make two starts in September, including an excellent six-inning performance against the Cincinnati Reds where he allowed just one run while striking out seven batters.

In the 21 starts he made last year though, he posted a 3.80 ERA and saw a decline in his strikeouts (7.5 K/9). There are multiple things that appeal to me though about Bieber, with the best selling point being the upside he provides at the extremely low price point on the trade market. Due to his decline, haing one year left on his contract, and projected to make $12.5 million in arbitration this year, his value is at an all-time low, and if Cleveland can get a position player with control back in return, I think they jump on it.

Unlike a Logan Gilbert type, Bieber is not going to cost the Cardinals a combination of Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan to acquire. Instead, the Cardinals could give up someone like Dylan Carlson, and Bieber would fill that third rotation spot for 2024. After the season, they could look to bring back Bieber on an extension, explore the loaded free agent pitching market next offseason, or allow a prospect like Tekoah Roby or Tink Hence to step into his spot in 2025.

Bieber actually feels like a low-risk, high-reward move to me for the role he would be playing in this scenario. I think there is a ton of risk in banking on him to be your number one starter, and still a decent amount of risk in asking him to be your number two, but as the number three starter in the Cardinals rotation, he can easily be a quality three but has the upside of a true number two if he rebounds from a down season last year.

I debated for a while as to which name I would send to Cleveland in this deal, and it ultimately came down to Carlson or Tyler O'Neill. With O'Neill only having one year of control left as well, I figured the Guardians would prefer Carlson and his team control, and so that's the framework I went with.

Side note here. I love Tyler Glasnow, and selfishly, I want to see him as a Cardinal. Maybe the Cardinals could look to give up a Tommy Edman or Alec Burleson to the Rays for him instead and create a three-headed monster, but I think it complicates the rest of the roster building due to Glasnow's $25 million salary (unless Tampa Bay ate some of it). If the Cardinals sign both Nola and Gray, I think Glasnow is extremely unlikely, but if you take out one of those signings, he instantly becomes the trade target I want the most.

Move #3 - The Cardinals trade OF Dylan Carlson to the Guardians for RHP Shane Bieber.

4. Sign Yuki Matsui

You're going to see me talk a lot about Yuki Matsui until he signs with a team, mostly because it feels very likely that he ends up going to the Cardinals this winter.

We talked about this over on my weekly podcast the "Noot News Podcast", that the Cardinals have reportedly been very interested in Matsui already and that Matsui would love to go to the Cardinals as well. Strong mutual interest is a helpful indicator of potential moves.

If you don't know Matsui, he is a closer from Japan who is coming over to Major League Baseball this offseason and is the youngest closer in Japanese history to reach 200 career saves. Standing at five feet, eight inches, and throwing from the left side, he doesn't blow you away with velocity, but he does strike out a ton of batters. He strikes out 12 batters per nine innings for his career and is doing so in Japan where contact hitting is a huge priority, so strikeout numbers tend to translate really well to Major League Baseball, where strikeouts are more prevalent.

The Cardinals know they need to bolster their bullpen this offseason along with their rotation, and adding Matsui to the mix gives them another high-leverage arm they can rely on during the season. Injuries happen, but even if the bullpen remains healthy, the Cardinals cannot just rely on Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, and JoJo Romero to cover all the important innings. They need a variety of options, and Matsui gives them that.

His closing experience is huge as well. Helsley will be the primary late-inning guy, but he does not typically pitch in back-to-back games, so having multiple other guys who can close out games is huge for St. Louis. Adding another lefty is important as well, as although Romero was great down the stretch, they need multiple looks from the left side late in games.

The Cardinals bullpen should receive a huge boost from having a better rotation in 2024, but adding arms like Matsui can raise it to the next level as well. The best teams in October tend to shorten games with their bullpen, so the Cardinals need to be able to do that as well.

Should the Cardinals miss out on Matsui, I think Jordan Hicks on a three-year, $30 million deal, or Robert Stephenson on something slightly cheaper would make a lot of sense for them as well.

Move #4 - Cardinals sign Yuki Matsui to a three-year, $21 million contract

5. Trade for another high-leverage arm using Tyler O'Neill

After signing Nola, Gray, and Matsui, as well as trading for Bieber, the Cardinals have pretty much spent all of that budget room I forecasted at the beginning, and some of that budget room baked in the idea of trading away the expected $5.5 million salary O'Neill is set to have.

I touched on this on Friday, but O'Neill still holds value across the league. Even though he only played in 72 games last year, his defense, base running, and league-average bat made him worth about $6.5 million. If he can even play in 100-120 games, and/or recapture some of his production offensively, he's going to outperform his arbitration number in 2024.

Even so, it's for the best that the Cardinals move on from O'Neill this offseason, but they should do so in a trade where they can maximize the value that he does still have. I debated between trades with teams like the Guardians and Marlins but eventually landed on a reunion with the Seattle Mariners.

Everyone talks about the Cardinals and Mariners linking up for a trade with their young arms and young bats, but I just do not see a deal happening with the more valuable assets. Gilbert is going to cost a Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan-type of package, and a guy like Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller would a be solid addition, but giving up less for Bieber makes more sense.

Still, the Mariners will want to upgrade their offense this offseason, and I could see a deal happening with O'Neill where the Cardinals can bring in a relief pitching with control while the Mariners try to see if O'Neill can rebound in a contract year.

I ended up landing on right-handed reliever Prelander Berroa, who made his MLB debut this year at age 23 and has some electric stuff. In 43 minor league games this year, he posted a 2.89 ERA in 65.1 innings with 101 strikeouts. While he's only thrown 1.2 big league innings so far, his stuff is undeniable and would provide the Cardinals with a fifth legit arm in their bullpen, and he would have six years of club control remaining as well.

With all of the money they would be spending this offseason, it makes a lot of sense to try and bet on the upside with a guy like Berroa, who could emerge as an 8th or 9th-inning guy at some point but starts out as a 6th inning guy with closer like stuff. O'Neill may go on and have a huge bounce-back season with Seattle, but it's a risk I think the Cardinals need to take at this point.

Move #5 - Cardinals trade OF Tyler O'Neill to the Mariners for RHP Prelander Berroa

Opening Day Roster after the perfect offseason

Talk about a busy offseason! Let's quickly recap who the Cardinals acquired, lost, and what their Opening Day roster would look like in this scenario.

Offseason Recap

Signed: Aaron Nola (7yr/$175m), Sonny Gray (3yr/$69m), and Yuki Matsui (3yr/$21m)

Traded for: Shane Bieber (1yr/$12.5mil) and Prelander Berroa ($720,000)

Traded away: Tyler O'Neill ($5.5 m) and Dylan Carlson ($1.8m)

Non-tendered: Andrew Knizner, Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, and John King

Total salary added to books: $65 million

Opening Day Roster

Starting Lineup:
LF Lars Nootbaar
1B Paul Goldschmidt
2B Nolan Gorman
3B Nolan Arenado
C Willson Contreras
RF Jordan Walker
DH Brendan Donovan
CF Tommy Edman
SS Maysn Winn

Bench:
1B/OF Alec Burleson
C Ivan Herrera
2B/OF Richie Palacios
One of 1B/DH Luken Baker/INF Thomas Saggese/INF Cesar Prieto/OF Victor Scott II

Rotation:
RHP Aaron Nola
RHP Sonny Gray
RHP Shane Bieber
LHP Steven Matz
RHP Miles Mikolas

Bullpen:
RHP Ryan Helsley
LHP Yuki Matsui
RHP Giovanny Gallegos
LHP JoJo Romero
RHP Prelander Berroa
RHP Wilking Rodriguez
LHP Packy Naughton
LHP Zack Thompson

Sign me up for that offseason in a heartbeat. As always, it's hard to fully predict what will happen. Nola could love Philadelphia so much that no matter what contract the Cardinals offer him, he's resigning there, or someone could go crazy and give him a massive deal that just does not make sense to match. Maybe the Guardians hold onto Bieber and do not feel like moving him. All of this is subject to change, but it feels well within the Cardinals' grasp if they are aggressive this offseason.

This kind of offseason doesn't just put the Cardinals back in the division title race, it could propel them to be true contenders in the National League. The Atlanta Braves are still the favorites and I'm sure the Dodgers will go get Shohei Ohtani and some other crazy moves, but likes of the Diamondbacks and Phillies showed the last two years, they can be beaten if you put together a strong roster.

Spending close to $70 million is not a pipedream, it's doable with an increase in payroll, all the money coming off the books, and a few non-tenders or trades here or there, but the Cardinals could very well spend closer to $55 million. If so, that may just lessen the quality of one of the starters they get.

I think this is the kind of standard they should be held to this offseason. It doesn't mean the offseason is a failure if they end up with Gray, Glasnow, and Michael Wacha, but I think we should all desire for them to bring their A+ offseason to the table. Will it happen? Only time will tell. But for now, I'm willing to be optimistic about what the Cardinals can do.

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